Trained lawyer, wannabe economist. Most of my scholarship predates AI. Prof @EUI_EU & co-founder DCI @fordynamism. Member of Rhine Group 🔗 https://xitter.cf/t.co/8UYadIqljr

Florence, Tuscany
Joined June 2010
1/ The big news of the week: the official launch of the Rhine Group by Mario Draghi, @patrickc, and @lugaricano. I’m honored to join as one of the few lawyers in this economics heavy group. Thread on why this initiative is different - and why it matters.
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People on the left trying to justify this because of anger are no different than Trump backers justifying the storming of the Capitol on Jan 6, 2021. You either are for mindless destruction or oppose it. I am against.
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What’s painful is realizing that a large population of European legal scholars actually buy into the fable that neoliberalism dominates our economies
The biggest, and stupidest, myth in European politics, particularly popular in France, is that Europe suffers the consequences of "austerity" and "neoliberalism". In the biggest 5 countries in Europe, more than half of the population makes its income from the state, less than half from the private sector. This is what makes the problem of reducing the welfare state so impossible: more than half of the voters are net recipients. No surprise that Italy's budget has not been balanced in 100 years, France's in 50 years (ooh la la, l'austérité!!): -France: 30 million from the state versus 21m private sector workers. State spending is 57% of GDP, taxes more than half the economy. The budget hasn't been balanced in the lifetime of most French (since 1974). - Germany: 35 million adults from the state, versus 34 million from the private sector. 10% of the population is registered as severely disabled. Public spending is over half of GDP. Germany has had a continuous budget deficit since 2019. -Italy: 23 million from the state, versus 20.5 million private-sector workers. Public spending is 51% of GDP. Italy has had a budget deficit every year since 1925, for 100 years. - Spain more people get their income from the state since 2024: 18.21 million from the public sector versus 17.9 million people working in the private sector. Since 2025, Spain also had more government employees than self-employed workers (autónomos) for the first time in history. State spending is at 45%, budget has not been balanced since 2007. - UK: 54% of households now receive more in state benefits than they pay in taxes. State spending is 44.5% of GDP, taxes (40%) are at their highest since 1950, the budget hasn't been balanced since 2001, and 1 in 5 new cars is paid by the government through a bizarre state disability scheme (Motability).
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And then they were three (with Gemini not that far behind).
This model is very very good. I was struggling to find anything to throw at it that it couldn’t do, even when other top models failed. Meta is back.
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Nicolas Petit retweeted
This is absolutely the right approach by Winchester College. At school and university, access to all devices needs to be rationed if young people are to learn to read, think, calculate and write. Traditional cognitive skills are more not less important in the age of AI. thetimes.com/uk/education/ar…
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Ahem, meanwhile @ecosia serves search queries from 🇫🇷 users and likely uses imported 🇫🇷 electricity to power its servers 🤔.
Berlin-based search engine Ecosia, used by government services, is dropping its French AI partner, Mistral, its CEO told POLITICO. The company will now bet on open-source models, including those from China. vist.ly/5mh5y
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Nicolas Petit retweeted
Le prix Nobel de littérature 2026 décerné à ChatGPT
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Great news from Mistral for Europe!!
Meet Mistral Large 4, aka Le Chonk. • 1T parameters, natively multimodal. 49B active. It is the best open weights model from US or Europe on aggregated benchmarks. • State-of-the-art on critical workloads, including cyber defense, manufacturing and finance and it surpasses closed frontier models on visual grounding. • Forged in Europe end-to-end and is deployable from Europe via our own Mistral Cloud infrastructure. • Available to all via API today. Working with cybersecurity partners privately. Open weights release end of October.
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Nicolas Petit retweeted
Small bird, fast wings, Kolibri is here. 78B parameters. 3.46B active. Up to 1M tokens of context. Built in Europe. Now the weights are yours. Run it on your own hardware, under Apache 2.0.
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A call to all entrepreneurs, founders, small business owners in Europe and anyone else who aspires to star a company at some point. This is the moment to act and let your voice be heard on EU Inc. EU Inc is the proposed legislation to make it easier to start and grow a company across Europe. It is now in front of the European Parliament and also being negotiated by governments. The objective should be very clear: you should be able to start and grow your company in Europe as your home market. What this should mean is, I think, at a minimum this: 1, You should be able to start a company online and cheaply. 2. You should be able to have a simple registration that you can fill out by yourself, with secure identity checks built in. You should not be forced to hire and pay a notary for this process. 3. The basic rules should be the same across Europe and should be common. There should be one registry with common rules and you shouldn't have to go to the lawyers of each country to set up different subsidiaries. 4. There should be a simple way to give employees a share in what they are helping you build, through stock options. They should only pay the tax when they sell those shares and when they receive the money. 5. The paperwork should be much simplified. There should be one channel for doing the VAT across borders and use the time saved to do your job and not to do paperwork. 6. The rules should support the entire life of the business; raising money, growing, going public, and also liquidating a failed business should all be done under the European common rules. Opening a bank account in another country, hiring across borders should be seemless. The European Commission made an initial proposal that was not sufficiently ambitious in my view but that was a useful start: it had online registration in 48 hours for less than €100 and measures to facilitate the taxation of employee stock options. It had some rules on common liquidation of the companies. In my view it was not ambitious enough because it allowed national authorities to impose further requirements, such as notaries. It was already falling short on tax and employment, but the reforms that the other institutions are introducing are making it even less ambitious. The draft that is being discussed by the governments eliminates the European company register and replaces it with a website that is just a portal to underlying national systems. This does not improve the creation of companies in any way. They're also eliminating the common procedures to liquidate failed companies, which was very useful because it facilitates the financing of these companies. The danger in the legislation is that it will require so many national exceptions that the founders will, in fact, end up facing still all the different regimes and it will make absolutely no difference. What I suggest here is that you write to your member of the European Parliament this week. Tell them about the obstacles your business is facing: the paperwork, the difficulty of giving shares, of raising money across borders. Explain what it costs and why it makes it difficult to create employment. Ask them what they will do to help you to make this legislation useful. Your MEPs work for you. Here are their contact details: competecentre.eu/the-launch-… The MEP leading Parliament’s work is René Repasi. The other political-group negotiators are Axel Voss, Pascale Piera, Mario Mantovani, Pascal Canfin, Sergey Lagodinsky, Kira Marie Peter-Hansen, Arash Saeidi and Marcin Sypniewski. Share this with other entrepreneurs. Help make sure that the people writing the law hear from the people that the law is meant to help.
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Me escribe un amigo sobre el gráfico del @ft describiendo el resultado de 112 estudios sobre las leyes de control de alquileres, , apuntando al impacto de las leyes de control de alquileres sobre la movilidad social: "Los de rojo son los chavales de mi pueblo que tienen que quedarse allí porque en Madrid no se construyen casas y en las que hay se tiene que quedar Maricarmen. No entiendo cómo esto puede ser progresista."
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Nicolas Petit retweeted
Lots of debates about sovereign vs. globally leading tech. How about: just don't do stupid things? Rolling out clearly inferior tech that nobody uses, because iNdEpEnDeNcE? Stupid. Refusing to even try homegrown, because it must be iNfErIoR to US tech? Equally stupid. Demand greatness. Give builders a real shot to prove it. And when they do, prioritise your independence ruthlessly.
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Nicolas Petit retweeted
People who don't listen to music: "AI is going to replace all music" People who don't read: "AI is going to replace literature" People with no friends: "AI will replace all relationships" People who don't practice law: "AI will replace all lawyers" Do any of you do anything
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Adivinad en qué país los emprendedores consideran más difícil tratar con el gobierno y en qué país (el mismo) dicen más que no volverían a emprender.
Some data we recently assembled on entrepreneurship/compute in Europe: eudata.vercel.app. We hope that one of the useful roles that Stripe can play is in collecting and publishing empirical data pertaining to entrepreneurship and industry in Europe. There's growing appetite to get Europe on a better footing, and cross-sectional comparisons can often shine light on where opportunities lie. If you're interested in this kind of thing, we publish more at stripeeconomics.substack.com.
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This is just the beginning 👇 Watch this space for Rhine Group action.
We have just finished the inaugural meeting of the Rhine Group. We discussed the central elements of Europe's competitiveness agenda, including basic science, AI/compute and cybersecurity, defense, energy, entrepreneurship/start-ups. I will be updating you on any progress we may have. Some of the projects we will pursue include: - We'll help Europe catch up on compute (Mario Draghi diagnosed the problem and some solutions in a recent FT piece) - We’ll help European universities and scientific institutions and explore a Rhine Chair program with European universities. - We’ll work on some key EU policy challenges, including facilitating the flow of capital to entrepreneurs. - We will set up a grants program that I will explain and announce here.
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Nicolas Petit retweeted
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so. Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training. You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
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If @AnthropicAI paces alone, it screws its IPO, and does not prevent doomsday If it paces w/ @OpenAI, it violates antitrust law, screws its IPO, but prevents doomsday - w/ the China caveat So best strategy is to call for narrow antitrust immunity focused for pacing efforts.
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead. You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement. I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible. But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier. Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want. Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well. So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it. If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.
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I have sympathy for @DarioAmodei ‘s call to “pace the frontier”. Does this imply that I should support copyright liability agst AI labs? I think not. Copyright liability may hit randomly labs that are at the edge of alignment.
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Anthropic’s call for a pause is an admission of the prisoner dilemma in which AI firms find themselves
Speaking as head of the Center for Study of Public Choice, the capture story for an AI pause doesn't fit. Reg capture is what you attempt when you're losing. Anthropic is about to have the biggest IPO in history. Winners don't lobby for regulation.
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Nicolas Petit retweeted
Speaking as head of the Center for Study of Public Choice, the capture story for an AI pause doesn't fit. Reg capture is what you attempt when you're losing. Anthropic is about to have the biggest IPO in history. Winners don't lobby for regulation.
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