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All my ideologies
politicaltests.github.io/12a…
Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
Life should be lived like EBITDA adjustments
It should always be positive, and sometimes, completely delusional
Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
Paul McCartney es tan grande como compositor que a veces pasa de largo que es uno de los vocalistas mas grandes y versátiles que dio la humanidad.
This quoted post is unavailable.
Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
Jukan,
I have no doubt that AI will change the world in unimaginable ways in the next two decades. Completely bullish on it.
But short term (2-3 years) is much more uncertain. Anything can happen.
Most plausable downside scenario: Whole semiconductor market is relying on the success of OpenAI and Anthropic. And the success means a trillion dollar revenue for these companies within 3 years. That means OpenAI and Anthropic cracking several markets beyond automatic coding and AI assistants. That's an extremely steep hill to climb.
Boomers might not be completely out of their mind. May be GenZ and Millenials are being naive. Time will tell.
Thoughts on memory:
Anyone who thinks compute will stay in shortage while memory slides into oversupply must be smoking something. Compute and memory are destined to tighten together or deflate together. One cannot die while the other survives.
By the same logic, the pods shorting memory and going long HDD are out of their minds. How do you think HDD isn't joined at the hip with memory? You really think HDD stays safe if this cycle rolls over?
In the end, all of this comes down to nobody having conviction about what happens after 2027. Historically, we have watched P peak one to two quarters before supply ramps, then Q expands and the entire profit pool collapses. But everyone forgets that this cycle runs on nonstandard products, unlike PCs, smartphones, and general purpose servers, and that it was triggered by factors different from past cycles.
This is because of the boomers who still see memory as an industry where you make a killing in the upcycle and lose your shirt in the downcycle. These self proclaimed veterans view memory through the lens of their past experience, and since they drive the market and set the stock prices, memory trades at such a low valuation. What I keep saying is that a sharp collapse like in the past is impossible. A gradual decline is possible. But even if Samsung and SK Hynix margins were cut in half from current levels, they would still trade at a P/E in the teens. That is still roughly half of HDD valuations.
Personally, I think that as memory prices fall, other sources of demand will absorb the supply at each step down. In particular, I expect personal AI demand, led by local AI, to emerge. Looked at another way, for local AI to take off, the hyperscaler driven spike in memory prices has to be brought under control. At current memory prices, local AI can never diversify.
Just as mainframes gave way to PCs and the cloud gave way to smartphones, each time carrying the cycle from P into a Q expansion phase, I think this AI cycle will also move from frontier labs to local open source AI. Based on these historical precedents, I believe local AI will take over the memory cycle from the frontier labs and carry memory demand.
I am not saying memory prices will hold for more than a decade. Memory P will fall at some point. But what is different from the past is that new consumer devices and new consumer demand, such as open source driven local AI, will support the floor for memory.
So the market right now keeps discounting these stocks out of fear of a memory peak nobody can time. This discount is being driven by boomer investors who dismiss the idea that AI supports the downside and keep pushing the view that earnings will collapse and the trough will revert to past levels too. My point is that this is completely wrong.
Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
Rule number one of investing: never lose money. Rule number two is never forget rule number one.
Warren Buffett
Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
When you really peel all the layers back, the balance sheet of five or six companies is essentially holding up the entire economy right now
Both in the form of direct capex investments, as well as hundreds of billions in backstops provided to JVs and neoclouds through SPVs
A crack in the balance sheet of any of these companies, and the entire complex comes crashing down. That is the focal risk point for the entire AI bull thesis
Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
说个暴论吧
目前的美股没有任何定投价值
甚至不如你推特搞流量做自媒体赚钱
对于定投而言,现在美股里的都是未来取不出的浮盈
(当然你要做波段,能止损 那还是可以赚的)
1. 美股目前泡沫遍地,基本面早就不支持高估值了
2. 美股的高估值,主要建立在AI叙事上,但是无论是openai x 还是a家,盈利模式都无法支撑现在的科幻叙事(这里还是得感谢一下国内的开源模型,帮助地球人民避开了赛博科技集权的黑暗时间线)
3. 维持泡沫需要稳定的资金净流入,但无论是沙特王爷们的钱,养老基金的钱,还是韭菜们的钱,都在未来两年内会面临比较大的赎回需求
4. 王爷国是实打实的开流截源…油卖不出去还一堆物理亏损,正是要花钱的时候。战争,叠加世纪最强厄尔尼诺的粮食危机,全世界范围的老龄化(赎回养老金),和越来越多的战争摩擦(战争算总账的话是净亏损)…都会让流入美股的水管越来越小,直至出现净流出¯\_(ツ)_/¯
5. 美债的不可持续性,一边压缩政策空间,一边也会引导资金从股市流出
6. 许多人只看到美股似乎稳定年化8%以上,但没看到的是当年dot崩盘的人站岗站了多久才打平🤔
Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
Replying to @GavinSBaker @DKThomp
Agree that a more competitive model layer is good for semis/CSPs. But, aren’t we early in AI trend that now it’s more important to have healthy frontier labs to have the fundings / incentives to keep improving models / expanding the TAM? Can opensource alone get us to $1T+ TAM?
Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
Autism Capital considers anyone that uses the term, "Super Intelligence," as opposed to the highly accepted new and more accurate term, "Smart Ass Clanka Brain," THE ENEMY! President AUTISM CAPITAL
Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
What kind of nonsense statement is this. Absurd. Trump wants people to use the right pronouns? This is spiritually trans.
Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
The stock market is quite obviously in its first stage of grief, denial.
Per 2000 and 2008, this stage lasts 6-9 months.
Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
Religious leaders have no special insight into AI consciousness; or human consciousness for that matter.


























