Thailand’s tourism model is under real structural pressure. Former TAT governor Supasorn is basically saying the quiet part out loud, that visitor numbers and revenue are no longer delivering the wider economic lift they once did. Foreign arrivals still haven’t recovered to the 2019 peak of 39.9 million, Chinese visitors have collapsed from over 11 million to a projected 4.5–5.5 million, and nearly 30% of tourist spending is leaking out of the economy. Meanwhile household debt is sitting around 86% of GDP and regional rivals (Vietnam and Japan) are taking share. Tourism will stay important, but it clearly can’t carry the economy by itself anymore. The push toward higher-value manufacturing, green industries, and better linkage with local supply chains feels long overdue. .............. From AseanNow: Thailand tourism is no longer enough to save economy Thailand can no longer rely on tourism alone to support its economy, according to former Tourism Authority of Thailand chief Yuthasak, who says the country faces a "structural tourism recession". While tourism remains central to Thailand's economy, Yuthasak argued that the sector is no longer producing the wider economic benefits it once did. He said the country needs a more balanced model built around higher-value services, advanced manufacturing and green investment. The warning comes as the World Bank forecasts Thai economic growth of 1.6% in 2026, citing weaker global trade, high household debt and a slower recovery in tourism. Manufacturing remains an important economic pillar, accounting for about 25% of GDP and employing more than 6.2 million people. The World Bank's latest Thailand Economic Monitor similarly puts manufacturing at 25% of GDP and around 16% of employment. Yuthasak said this underlined the risk of depending too heavily on services and visitor spending, especially as geopolitical uncertainty and regional competition reshape travel patterns. Visitor recovery still below the old peak Thailand received a record 39.9 million foreign visitors in 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic halted international travel. Arrivals recovered to around 28 million in 2023 and about 35.5 million in 2024. However, the recovery lost momentum in 2025, when international arrivals fell 7.23% to 32.97 million. Foreign tourism revenue also declined, dropping 4.71% to around 1.53 trillion baht, according to figures cited in the analysis. The Tourism Authority of Thailand has retained a 2026 target of 34.9 million foreign arrivals, with total tourism income of 2.79 trillion baht from both domestic and international markets. Other forecasts are less optimistic. Kasikorn Research Center, or KResearch, expects 31.36 million foreign arrivals in 2026, a year-on-year fall of 4.9%, producing international tourism revenue of around 1.54 trillion baht. Yuthasak said the figures show Thailand can no longer assume that visitor numbers will simply return to their former growth path. A major issue is the reduced Chinese market. Thailand previously welcomed more than 11 million Chinese tourists annually, but Yuthasak cited projections of only around 4.5 million to 5.5 million Chinese visitors during 2025-26. He linked the fall partly to stronger domestic tourism policies in China and safety concerns about Thailand. Chinese group tours have recovered to only around 45% of their previous level, he said. Long-haul visitors generally spend more. Foreign tourists spent an average 52,833 baht per person per trip in the first half of 2026, according to figures cited from the National Economic and Social Development Council. Middle Eastern visitors spent an average 80,137 baht per trip, while European tourists spent between 55,000 and 62,000 baht. But Yuthasak said their smaller numbers could not fully replace lost East Asian arrivals. Less money remains in Thailand Yuthasak also highlighted tourism leakage, where spending by overseas visitors ultimately leaves the Thai economy through imports, foreign company profits and fees paid to overseas online travel agencies. Research cited in the analysis put Thailand's tourism leakage rate at 28.37%. In practical terms, nearly 30 baht in every 100 baht spent by tourists may leave the domestic economy. Hotels can rely on imported equipment and supplies, while foreign-owned companies may repatriate profits. Booking commissions paid to overseas platforms can also reduce the share of visitor spending retained by Thai businesses. Tourists have also become more cautious about discretionary purchases, including souvenirs. Yuthasak said Thailand's policy of pursuing "value over volume" has not yet created enough additional economic value to offset weaker visitor numbers. Debt and rivals add to pressure Domestic tourism is being affected by Thailand's high household debt, which stands at around 85.9-86.7% of GDP in 2026, or about 16.44 trillion baht. Average household income was cited as falling 2.5% to 28,308 baht, while tighter lending standards have limited access to new credit. Thai travellers are still expected to make around 277.1-282.6 million domestic trips, but many are opting for shorter, cheaper breaks and fewer overnight stays. Smaller hotels outside Bangkok, Phuket and Chonburi are facing oversupply as a result. Nationwide occupancy remains around 71-72%, but average daily room rates have weakened, raising concerns about non-performing loans among smaller hotel operators. Thailand is also facing intensified competition from Vietnam and Japan. Vietnam has promoted a cost advantage, with goods and services estimated to be about 25% cheaper than in Thailand, alongside a 45-day visa-exemption policy. It received 21.2 million international visitors in 2025, including around 5.3 million Chinese tourists. Japan welcomed 36.87 million international tourists in 2024, overtaking Thailand, helped by a weaker yen that made travel and shopping cheaper. Thai travellers have increasingly spent money there too. Yuthasak said Thailand should keep tourism as a major industry, but link it more closely to local agriculture, manufacturing, technology and green industries. He also called for more domestically produced goods and stronger Thai digital booking platforms to retain a greater share of tourism spending. The World Bank has identified advanced green manufacturing as a potential growth engine, including batteries, electric vehicles, solar technology, energy-efficient equipment, advanced electronics and digital infrastructure. Green goods already account for nearly 10% of Thai exports, while investment applications in emerging industries nearly doubled in the first nine months of 2025.

Wang Wei, a leading Chinese archaeologist and member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, explains the official concept of “one million years of human history in China.” He explicitly states that modern humans in China emerged through more than a million years of continuous local evolution. This represents a significant challenge to Chinese proponents of the Out of Africa theory and signals growing recognition of the regional continuity model within China's archaeological establishment. 学部委员王巍解释中国百万年人类史，首次明确表达了中国地区的现代人来自本土的百万年连续进化: 东亚地区现代人起源，也有重要发现。在湖南道县福岩洞，发现距今8万至12万年的现代人类牙齿化石，为探讨现代人起源提供关键证据。这与中华大地多处发现距今6万到3万年间的一系列古人类遗址相关联，如同散落在时间长河中的珍珠，串联起人类从直立人到早期智人、再到东亚现代人的连续演化历程，让我们清晰地看到：中华大地不仅是人类文明的重要发祥地，更是东亚地区人类连续进化的重要舞台。 mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2Y0Ei9OSG…