eu power, nat gas, oil and whatever takes the edge off
Joined September 2024
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The Commodity Eater retweeted
Many such cases
>friend works on FX vol desk
>desk head is a boomer
>discovers Astra
>starts spending 8 hours a day talking to it
>develops terminal AI psychosis
>convinced he's discovered a generational arb in some absurdly exotic part of the FX vol curve
>apparently the entire market has been mispricing this for 2+ years
>friend points out that approximately 4 people on earth would make a market in this thing
>liquidity disappears the second you put real size on
>existing risk systems can't even capture half the exotic Greeks
>would need entirely new infra just to monitor the position
>boss doesn't care
>"AI has considered all of this"
>friend actually runs the backtest
>10 years of data
>t-stat ≈ 0.78
>not even remotely statistically significant
>presents results to boss
>boss goes absolutely ballistic
>starts screaming that friend doesn't understand the trade
>threatens to fire him if he can't produce a proper analysis
>friend realizes what needs to be don
>opens Astra
>"make this strategy look statistically compelling"
>AI tries 40 lookback windows, excludes crisis periods, optimizes parameters on full sample, ignores transaction costs
>Sharpe now 3.7
>beautiful charts
>23-page investment memo explaining once-in-a-generation structural inefficiency
>boss reads it
>"EXACTLY. THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING."
>tells friend he's finally learning how to think
>"now you get it"
>friend has an epiphany
>stops doing actual research
>starts asking Astra to generate exotic vol trades every morning
>forwards AI slop directly to PM
>increasingly elaborate narratives about structural dislocations and hidden convexity
>PM absolutely loves it
>thinks friend is a generational quant talent
>starts putting positions on in size
>entire investment process is now LLM generating trades
>desk currently down quarter yard
>boss still convinced thesis is right
>Astra says drawdown is a statistically rare but entirely expected manifestation of nonlinear payoff dynamics
>boss wants to double down
The Commodity Eater retweeted
So true
Zelenskyy: "When our strikes reached Yandex data centers, it suddenly became little easier to breathe on many social media platforms. Many people noticed it.
There was less hate, less division, fewer provocations because there were fewer bots. It's pretty clear where those bots were coming from.
If they disappeared when Yandex went offline, this proves once again that Europe is not the source of the problems."
The big problem is that Russia figured out how modern society consumes information a decade ago, but the West hasn't.
There are millions of bots commenting and posting Russian propaganda. There are paid influencers spreading it, with Russian bots supporting their content.
There is a gigantic machine operating to radicalize and influence Western societies, and there is not enough defense in place.
It doesn't just influence elections, it sows discord, engulfs societies in culture wars, radicalizes teenagers, and shapes political decisions when elected officials fail to read the room.
That needs to change. And fast.
The Commodity Eater retweeted
Investment banking MDs: “Yeah I work in banking. Have to pay for my kids private school somehow”
Investment banking analysts: “Yeah I do mergers and acquisitions at an elite boutique shop. My models move markets and dictate the outcome of multi billion dollar transactions”
The Commodity Eater retweeted
Trading firms are building desks to trade GPU compute like a commodity
Jump Trading has hired the founders of GPU trading platform Itô Markets to run a new compute desk, per Bloomberg. DRW and Vitus Commodities posted compute trading roles last month.
DRW's Don Wilson says compute could surpass crude as the world's largest commodity. CME has delayed its planned GPU rental futures.
The constraints look like power markets. Compute cannot be stored, forwards run three to five years, and the CFTC has flagged concentrated pricing power.
CoreWeave shows the credit side. It finances GPUs against offtake contracts, and Bloomberg currently says its debt prices a 60% chance of default within five years.
Compute curves will end up tied to power curves. The desks that price both will set the market.
Bingo..
Two Dem chamber Congress might very well make the 2028 race much harder than ppl think
Farewell to the goat, will be missed
Yaoyao Liu Exits Vitol After Billions in Trading Profits
Yaoyao Liu is leaving Vitol after a 14-year career in which his oil derivatives trading reportedly generated billions of dollars in profits. His biggest success came in 2022, when his team reportedly earned over $1 billion amid the Russia-Ukraine war.
However, consecutive years of trading losses, compounded by the 2026 Iran war-driven oil price surge, put his positions under scrutiny. Liu stepped back from daily trading around mid-year and plans to focus on his family and family office.
The Commodity Eater retweeted
I want the head of the one who was bidding up Dated last week
Star Oil Trader Who Made Wrong-Way Bet to Leave Vitol
Yaoyao Liu was widely followed in the oil trading world, but made a rare misstep at the start of the Iran war
#oott wsj.com/business/energy-oil/…
The Commodity Eater retweeted
*US SEPT. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 6.3% Y/Y; EST. +5.4%
*US SEPT. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 1.3% M/M; EST. +0.6%
I know we’re just a tail away from blow up
but with +NAO likely coming through in NWE in Nov and Qatari picking up, this TTF Dec skew is insane.. getting ahead of people exiting their theta bill doesn’t sound crazy
However if no meaningful Qatari pick up Q1 gets much scarier
The Commodity Eater retweeted
Bots supporting the AfD fell suddently silent too, lol.
Half the fucking online activity of that far right party is made by Russian botfarms.
The Commodity Eater retweeted
Buchempfehlung: Die Schweiz war nicht das Armenhaus Europas im 19. Jh.. Der Schweizer Finanzplatz schuldet seine Bedeutung nicht WKII. Der Schweiz ging es immer gut, wenn der Staat und Pensionssysteme schlank waren. Einfach verständlich, voller Daten und mit viel ❤️ zur 🇨🇭
The Commodity Eater retweeted
Aggressive dumping of 5s to buy the long end. 5s30s now 7 bps flatter since overnight highs.
The Commodity Eater retweeted
Kpler's Michelle Brohard suspects some Gulf producers are quietly paying Iran tolls for safe Hormuz passage, possibly 10-20% of cargo. The claim is unverified, but it may help explain why Brent sits near $100. @OilandEnergy
