Aviation+Travel+Tech+Investing+Sports+Liberia=Living the Dream Tweets NOT investment advice -Marcus
Atlanta, GA
Joined April 2010
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Royen Capital βοΈπ¨πΏββοΈπ±π·πΉπ’οΈπβ½ retweeted
$RIG Two strong 7G drillship awards: 7G Conqueror returning to the U.S. Gulf at $500k (!) for 450 days and 7G Proteus at $464k for 700 days. $478k blended avg
The $500k dayrate is meaningful, and new awards are in direct continuation of existing contracts to minimize idle time
Royen Capital βοΈπ¨πΏββοΈπ±π·πΉπ’οΈπβ½ retweeted
Because he paid $70,000 to preorder the 2020 roadster in 2017 on the day it was announced
It's now 2026
Royen Capital βοΈπ¨πΏββοΈπ±π·πΉπ’οΈπβ½ retweeted
Is Starlink A Trojan Horse For Airlines? @elonmusk Is Making @Delta Decision Look Smarter
liveandletsfly.com/starlink-β¦
And there is a cheap, easy way to make a leveraged bet on the merged company.... $VAL.WS
There's an energy crisis, Transocean $RIG is the leader of an offshore oil services oligopoly, the company is trading at a fraction of replacement value, the stock has broken out from a two decade trend line on rising volume and, as of today, management can return capital to shareholders. It just flipped from a credit to equity story. And it's a must own within the energy sector.
$AAPL is one of the greatest businesses in the history of capitalism: an unmatched combination of brand power, ecosystem lock-in, pricing power, capital efficiency, and free cash flow generation that has compounded for decades.
Warren Buffettβs Berkshire still bought a large stake in 2016 at roughly 10β11Γ trailing earnings or closer to 8Γ EV/EBIT once you properly account for the enormous net cash pile. That was a reasonable multiple for a franchise of that quality.
Anyone arguing that $SPCX, $TSLA, $NVDA, or similar names are βthe next $AAPLβ is paying nosebleed valuations for businesses that are, in important respects, far weaker. None of them match AAPLβs combination of durability, returns on capital, and proven ability to extract enormous profits from a global installed base.
Today, the market is pricing hope and narrative with most Tech and AI names. With $AAPL, Buffett bought durable and growing cashflow at a reasonable if not cheap valuation
πππππππππππππππππππππππππππππππππππππππππππππ
Royen Capital βοΈπ¨πΏββοΈπ±π·πΉπ’οΈπβ½ retweeted
Itβs stunning to relive the same mania 25 years laterππ
Why is the overall market so fixated on $CRWV's imminent demise?
At the peak of the Dot Com bubble, $CSCO - the largest company in the world, and the $NVDA equivalent of the era - generated about 10% of its revenue from circular deals through vendor-financed startups.
When those startups lost access to capital, $CSCO's revenue growth went from +66% to -30% within a few quarters, and the stock lost 80% of its value. The same story played out across the dot com supply chain, sending the Nasdaq down 80%.
Today, $CRWV alone makes up roughly 8% of
$NVDA GPU sales. Losing that demand is enough to nuke $NVDA's growth story all by itself.
Oh, and $CRWV isn't an isolated example - every major neocloud is hemmoraghing cash and borrowing costs are going UP across the board.
If you lose the neoclouds, you lose the incremental growth driver for marginal data center capacity, and the AI capex trade goes up in smoke.
That's why we're seeing carnage across the entire AI supply chain, from $CAT and $GEV to $MU, $AVGO and more recently $NVDA.
This is what the beginning of the end of a debt-fueled, circular-financed capex bubble looks like.
Royen Capital βοΈπ¨πΏββοΈπ±π·πΉπ’οΈπβ½ retweeted
Historically those who have tried to design flying cars typically have succeeded in designing both a crappy aircraft and a crappy car all in one go.
Royen Capital βοΈπ¨πΏββοΈπ±π·πΉπ’οΈπβ½ retweeted
"sit tight, few men can do it" Jesse.
Royen Capital βοΈπ¨πΏββοΈπ±π·πΉπ’οΈπβ½ retweeted
This is the size of the 10,000 psi nitrogen tank in the "flying" Tesla car.
It's basically a bomb. Definitely not a production car.
Canβt wait for $PBF earnings Oct 29th
Royen Capital βοΈπ¨πΏββοΈπ±π·πΉπ’οΈπβ½ retweeted
I'm not an Elon hater.
I'm just telling you the Honest Truth:
This is a marketing stunt.
The technology is quite old.
Just nobody ever thought of bolting it on a car.
Because it's pointless.
Porsche or Ferrari could also build something like this if they wanted, but they don't, because it's not worth it for them.
It's worth it for Elon though, because his entire brand is all about having the halo of futurism.
His marketing scales especially well with tech gimmicks like this, which is why he is financially incentivised to do them, while others aren't.
Again, I'm not hating, but actually educating yall.
This is not engineering genius.
It's marketing genius.
Royen Capital βοΈπ¨πΏββοΈπ±π·πΉπ’οΈπβ½ retweeted
Cool stunt. Great hype marketing.
Time for me to be that guy everyone hates - It's a scam and this will never ship.
The external compressor and cooling system to charge the tank once, likely cost more than the car. A multi-stage compressor and heat echanger setup that would fit in a car, would take several days to the better part of a week of constant running for a single charge.
250kg of 10,000psi air in a composite tank, with all the potential failure points of complex plumbing and valves in a human occupied confined space... If your sphincter didn't just make a diamond reading that sentence, you're not comprehending it.
Go ask grok about the physics involved just in compressing, cooling, storing and controlling a compressed air system with these specs, and what's possible with typical industrial equipment. This is just a cool gimmick to pump fans and stock.
Id bet money, the car in the demo didn't have a full size battery in it. Wouldn't be surprised if someone isn't currently doing analysis on the video to calculate the vehicles weight.
Sorry.
What it journey it has been for $RIG shareholders. Congratulations to all my fellow longs
Royen Capital βοΈπ¨πΏββοΈπ±π·πΉπ’οΈπβ½ retweeted
Ukraine has resumed targeting Russian oil refineries, hitting a refinery in Ryazan in response to consistent Russian attacks on Ukraine's power grid.
Royen Capital βοΈπ¨πΏββοΈπ±π·πΉπ’οΈπβ½ retweeted
Brazil granted the final regulatory approval for the proposed RIG-VAL merger. Shareholders vote Nov 24 and should be approve. Merger should close in 4Q26.
The merger is clearly positive for drillship market structure on the supply side. I explained why a few weeks agoβ¦
Valaris brought 6 cold-stacked drillships back in 24 months, criticized by some as chasing utilization before the market was truly ready to absorb them.
VAL has another 3 cold drillships on the sidelines. Under Transocean, they likely stay there longer. Supply discipline.
- Valaris' DS-13 and DS-14 are the most relevant as βstranded-newbuildβ 7G drillships currently sitting idle in Las Palmas. Atwood originally ordered them >10 years ago. After repeated delivery deferrals, two mergers and a bankruptcy, Valaris exercised purchase options from the shipyard in December 2023 for $337 million combined. They have yet to be activated (~$100mm each).
- With demand improving in Africa and Asia, DS-13 and DS-14 were reasonably expected to be activated eventually. This latent supply may have kept a lid on industry dayrates, all else equal.
- Valaris' third cold-stacked 7G is DS-11. Unlike the stranded newbuilds DS-13 and DS-14, it has previously worked, which likely puts it further back in the reactivation queue.
- A key market structure impact of the proposed RIG-VAL merger is that an independent VAL likely markets these more aggressively, whereas RIG likely waits for more attractive returns before considering potential activation.
- Transocean's 2018 acquisition of Ocean Rig added three cold-stacked 7G drillships, Mylos, Athena and Apollo, all cold for nearly a decade β partly an example of Transocean discipline. Reactivating any of them would be costly and I believe is quite unlikely at this point.
- Activating a cold drillship adds EBITDA and cash flow, net of activation capex. However, the cost is slower to surface as it increases warm supply that weighs on market utilization and dayrates, all else equal. This can be impactful to other warm drillships.
- Industry skeptics argue most of these drillships will never be reactivated, and call that bearish. It's the opposite for the warm fleet: less supply competing for contracts means higher dayrates and lower probability of costly idle time, all else equal.
- A likely outcome of the proposed Transocean-Valaris merger is cold supply stays sidelined longer, some of it permanently. That tightens the market for the warm fleet and moves it closer to the dayrates envisioned when these rigs were ordered for >$750mm each over a dozen years ago.
- Relatedly, in July 2025 Turkey's TPAO bought two stranded-newbuild 7G drillships, since renamed ΓaΔrΔ± Bey and YΔ±ldΔ±rΔ±m. TPAO uses these for Turkish energy security rather than marketing them internationally as a contract driller would. Paired with a Transocean-Valaris merger, that's a meaningful improvement in high-spec drillship market structure.
