“That is my quant…… my quantitative…He won a national math competition in China… he doesn’t even speak English.. yeah I’m sure of the math”

Scion Capital
Joined April 2023
I strongly believe that Wall Street is under appreciating the Alani acquisition. If you spend 10 minutes on social media you can quickly see the brand loyalty of Alani. Bullish on $CELH $40 over next 12 months
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Playing some $VICR. Full gap fill on double rev guide bump and they report on Tuesday (10/20) playing for a bounce into earnings. Long at $192
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$NB EXIM reportedly financing 65% of the Project's upfront CAPEX requirements. This is up from the 800MM agreed up previously. It is now $1.2B as “Elk Creek Project's total upfront capital expenditures ("CAPEX") at approximately $1.85 billion” Bullish finance.yahoo.com/economy/po…
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$CMG a good long here IMO. Benefit from rotation out of AI names. Also trading below pre $SBUX takeover rumors. Long at $30
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Vennett Capital retweeted
$EMPD court affirmed the earlier ruling that the ATG directors should stand for election. Correct decision. Vote is only 2 days away, with the discount to NAV still sitting at ~35%.
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Vennett Capital retweeted
If you’re an AI bear and using this as a “win” already…I’ve got a bridge to sell you!! The $70 billion was a reported number OpenAI never confirmed, and the real figure is still a company approaching $50 billion annualized. At the end of last year that run rate was around $20 billion, so we're talking about roughly 2.5x growth in 9 months. That's not a miss by any metric…that's expectations running ahead of the fastest scaling company we've ever seen. Not to mention Anthropic is already at close to $100B ARR. The AI trade was never built on OpenAI's revenue. It's built on $MSFT, $GOOGl, $AMZN and $META spending hundreds of billions out of their own cash flow, and every one of them has been saying demand outruns capacity. So one private company's revenue mark doesn't cancel a datacenter order book. If it could, the thesis was never real to begin with… What would actually break it is if capex guidance get cuts, GPU lead times collapsing, or enterprise adoption stalling. None of that happened today and not going to happen for the next 5 years. The market repriced a rumor, and rumor driven selloffs are usually where patient money gets paid. Thesis intact…limit up!
*OPENAI ANNUALISED REV. $20B LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY SIGNALLED: FT *OPENAI RECENTLY TOLD INVESTORS ITS REVENUES WERE APPROACHING $50BN ON AN ANNUALISED BASIS AT END OF SEPTEMBER, FAR SHORT OF THE $70BN REPORTED AI STOCKS SELL OFF…
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Vennett Capital retweeted
$AXIL reported Q1 FY27 last night. Headline revenue of $6.1m, -11% y/y, will probably get the attention, but we think that misses what actually happened in the quarter and, more importantly, what is setting up for the balance of FY27. There are three things we think investors should focus on: 1. Q1 looks much more like a transition/timing quarter than a demand problem. The revenue decline was driven by two identifiable factors: XCOR 1 slowed as customers waited for XCOR 2, which did not launch until Sept. 15—after Q1 ended—and a large prior-year big-box order did not repeat in the same quarter. Underlying consumer demand looked considerably better than the headline: hearing DTC revenue declined <1% y/y. Retail is also inherently lumpy at AXIL's current size. Management confirmed that follow-on POs from major retailers continue to come in and described the quarterly volatility well: “That is a coverage issue, not a demand issue.” As AXIL adds doors and SKUs, any individual Costco/Walmart-sized PO should matter less to quarterly results. 2. The cash flow statement largely resolves the biggest concern coming out of FY26. Following Q4, investors saw AR and inventory spike and understandably questioned whether AXIL had stretched its balance sheet to push product into large retailers. We discussed this extensively with management at the time. Q1 provides the answer. AR fell from $4.75m → $1.33m. Operating cash flow was +$3.8m. Cash increased from $4.5m → $7.9m, or roughly $0.96/share, with zero debt. The large FY26 retail receivables converted into cash. This wasn't a case of AXIL booking questionable sales and waiting to get paid—the working-capital build was largely a function of large orders shipping close to fiscal year-end. That distinction matters enormously when assessing the quality of FY26 earnings. 3. XCOR 2 + retail distribution + AXIL's margin structure create the setup for materially higher earnings. XCOR 2 launched Sept. 15, so Q1 contained essentially none of the launch revenue but approximately $360K of launch advertising expense. Initial XCOR 2 orders were >$2.8m in August and increased to >$3.6m by Sept. 30, with the majority already shipped. Management went further tonight, saying XCOR 2 is already more than making up in Q2 for the XCOR transition-related shortfall in Q1. Gross margins remain exceptional. Reported GM was 82.6% because of tariff refunds, but stripping those out produces an underlying 73.6% GM, versus 67.6% last year. More importantly, management expects normalized gross margins to remain within AXIL's historical 67–74% range throughout FY27. That matters because the earnings opportunity isn't dependent on margin expansion. AXIL is increasingly shifting toward retail/wholesale revenue, which can carry lower gross margins than DTC but requires materially less customer-acquisition spending. As revenue scales across a largely built operating infrastructure, incremental dollars should carry substantial operating leverage. Management expects both top- and bottom-line growth in FY27, with results becoming more visible beginning in Q2. They also said AXIL is already close to being capable of a $10m revenue quarter. Getting consistently above $10m is primarily a function of adding doors and adding SKUs within existing doors. And the runway remains significant: management believes $100m of annual revenue is achievable organically without M&A. Our thesis remains straightforward. AXIL has roughly $1/share of cash, no debt, ~70%+ underlying gross margins, a flagship product launch generating record early orders, recurring major-retailer POs and significant remaining distribution white space. The exact quarterly cadence will remain difficult to predict while individual big-box orders are large relative to AXIL's current revenue base. But we think investors should separate uncertainty around whenrevenue gets recognized from uncertainty around whether the earnings opportunity exists. Management has discussed a longer-term objective of approximately $1/share of EPS with us for some time. Nothing in Q1 changes our view of that opportunity. If anything, the cash conversion, XCOR 2 demand, retail follow-on orders and underlying margin performance make the path increasingly tangible.
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$AXIL final thoughts. Management mentioned “FY27 growth top and bottom line expected” they would need to at least $8.25M a Q over the next 3Qs to achieve that and with $3.6M in orders for Xcor 2s I think we can see a $9-10M+ in Q2 This is the time to be buying not selling IMO.
$AXIL The growth numbers for retail + wholesale seem bad on the surface but in Q1 FY26 that wholesale number included a 28% rev concentration from $COST order. Backing out that $2M order you get $0.98M. Compare that to the $2.2M Q1 FY27. Up 120% with no customer exceeding 10%
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$AXIL The growth numbers for retail + wholesale seem bad on the surface but in Q1 FY26 that wholesale number included a 28% rev concentration from $COST order. Backing out that $2M order you get $0.98M. Compare that to the $2.2M Q1 FY27. Up 120% with no customer exceeding 10%
$AXIL So you had a period where there were no new orders for their flagship product for a significant chunk of the Q as wholesale was burning through existing inventory and DTC was waiting for the new launch. This created a massive drag on results. Cont.
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$AXIL So you had a period where there were no new orders for their flagship product for a significant chunk of the Q as wholesale was burning through existing inventory and DTC was waiting for the new launch. This created a massive drag on results. Cont.
Just my quick thoughts for $AXIL Q1. This quarter looks bad on the surface and the estimate miss is based on one sell side analyst so take it with a grain of salt. This Q was set up for failure as wholesale side was going to be weak as they were waiting for XCOR 2 launch. cont.
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Just my quick thoughts for $AXIL Q1. This quarter looks bad on the surface and the estimate miss is based on one sell side analyst so take it with a grain of salt. This Q was set up for failure as wholesale side was going to be weak as they were waiting for XCOR 2 launch. cont.
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$AXIL saw this at my local $COST today
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$AXIL reports on 10/06 expecting another strong quarter driven by new $WMT dist. which went live at the start of FY 27 Q1 as well as the military partnership. We should see strong guidance for Q2 if they give guide as the launch of the XCOR2s sounded good. Buying more at $6
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$EMPD Lake Street picking up $EMPD with a $6 PT
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$Bull. Taking a starter position here. Quite the pullback and recent crypto news hurting $HOOD $COIN $CRCL $BLSH. Think today’s selloff is driven by insider selling which is always so dumb to me. Like it at $7.84 after very strong Q
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$JVA nice pop
I like $JVA here on coffee spike over the last month. Should benefit them for Q3 especially for their long coffee hedges which got smoked in Q2. Scooped some share at $3.40
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$AXIL back under $6 after a brief run to $7.40s is very odd but the stock is extremely thin and only takes one large seller to trash the name. Think this selloff provides another very good opportunity to get in before the October Q. Expecting strong guidance surrounding new XCOR.
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$EMPD quite an interesting story here. No one knows about this stock besides @SPACuity. Trades at a negative EV with $4.90 a share roughly in cash and BTC which fully ignores investments in AI data centers where they will be collecting lease payments starting 2027. Buying size
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$DY bullish
🟢 Dir buys +201k of $DY at 286.92 increasing position +204%.
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$DELL ON AI INFERENCE DEMAND: “Inference has passed training and is pure demand on our industry” Dell expects inference token demand to grow 87x to 3,600 quadrillion tokens by 2030, while training demand grows 5x “Enterprise agentic to be the single largest workload by 2028”
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$TTWO today’s selloff seems overdone and a good buying opportunity. Lower preorder numbers isn’t shocking when you can buy the game digitally instantly versus GTA V launch when digital copies were much more scarce. No fear of your local store running out now “It’s priced in🤓”
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