$GOOGL blew off the barn doors with accelerating results in nearly every business line and pristine commentary. Story is getting better and numbers moving up. Risk / reward still interesting even at afterhours price. From $175, 30% upside to 25x my 2025 GAAP EPS estimate and 54% upside on 2026. Downside of 19% to 18x street 2025 GAAP EPS (which will move up tomorrow). Total rev of 80.5b grew 15% yy > street at 78.7b, and GAAP OP of 25.5b (32% margin) grew 32% yy > street at 22.4b. Search: Rev of 46.2b accelerated to 14.4%. They are not seeing any impact from competitors. In fact, they are seeing increased search usage of new AI-powered results. They are bringing AI-powered overviews into the search page – doing this in a measured fashion to improve search experience while prioritizing traffic to merchants and other sites. Also highlighted that the costs of GenAI search have come down 80% from launch a little over a year ago. [Serious three punch combo to bear case that 1) AI search goes to competition, 2) monetization goes from 5 links to 1, and 3) cost of GenAI search is much higher]. YouTube: Rev of 8.1b had large acceleration to 21% yy. Highlighted that they saw strength from both DR / brand, and that short video monetization relative to regular has doubled yy and was up 10% qq. This print is a big deal if it is a leading indicator bc YouTube business grew between 4-9b each year from 2019-2021, 400m in 2022 and 2b in 2023. If this growth rate holds, they will grow by 6b this year so it may be growth is re-invigorated here. A ban of Tiktok will only help. Cloud: Rev of 9.6b accelerated to 28% yy w/ rev delta of 382m vs 139m last Q1 (which had optimizations). They highlighted their strength in offering their own TPUs alongside NVDA, and that 65% of new GenAI startups are customers. Operating income of 9.4% was flat qq. They highlighted that YouTube and Cloud are going to exit the year at over 100b. YouTube did 8b in Q1 and Cloud did 10b so 18b total or 72b annualized. So they expect this to grow by over 39% through this year?!? I can’t get there – am at 10.7b for YT in Q4 and 11.9b for Cloud Q4 so 90b annualized or 10% below their commentary. They know the business better than me so I hope they are right. Network: Rev of 7.4b shrank 1.1% yy. They don’t really talk about what is going on here. I assume GenAI searches hurt this business line over time (no more recipe sites filled to the gills w/ ads). Subscriptions: Rev of 8.7b grew 18% yy down from 23% last qtr but up from 9% last Q1. They increased price in May of last year so will need to work through that w/ likely slower growth rates for balance of year. Other bets: Rev of 0.5b grew 72% yy. Waymo is now accepting paying riders in LA and opening up test rides in Austin. Other bets burned 1.0b in the qtr improved from 1.2b burn last Q1. They said they have additional “workflows” to reduce this burn further. I wonder how much of this is Waymo which I’m pretty excited about (the tech works and they are rolling it out). In any case, we likely have seen peak profit headwind here unless they go into a massive Waymo investment cycle (which I think would be smart). Costs: Company clearly focused on keeping these under control and said will expand margins this year. Within that envelope, GM increased to 58.1% from 56.1% last year but gains likely moderate given increased D&A from the high AI-related capex. Headcount shrank 1% qq. Stock comp was DOWN 1% yy (6.5% of revs). Margins: GAAP op margin of 31.6% - an all-time high. Normalized for severance costs they were at 32.5% up from 30% last Q1 (also normalized). Great qtr - lots of engines chugging here.

$SNOW reported an ok quarter (strong bookings but compromised on pricing, decelerating revenue growth, subdued customer addition metrics), guided well-below, and announced CEO change w/ new CEO lacking ANY enterprise software experience. Story is getting worse,and numbers are going down (though likely bottom here for a bit). Very expensive valuation. Upside using even stale street numbers is -7% using 12x CY25 revs / 42x FCF and 19% using same multiples on CY26. Downside of -50% using 8x my CY24 revs / 40x FCF and -40% using same multiples on CY25.

$LCID missed and guided below. Deliveries, ASPs, margins, FCF and liquidity are bad, bad, bad, bad, and scary respectively (and respectfully). (1/9)