CFA. Debunked Bloomberg's $SMCI spy BS. $GME OG. Ran a $100M+ L/S solar book. Semicap & China enthusiast. Princeton. 1A fan. Value guy, buyer of last resort.

San Diego, Portugal, Australia
Joined February 2015
Quite the move in $ACLS / $VECO today - anyone know what's going on beyond the broad strength in semicap? I'd posted a $VECO long pitch last month (tldr solid growth outlook, too cheap relative to comps): valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/…
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Blowing up my book in chinese internet 🥴 (up to a 2%+ weight now in $BIDU)
Replying to @CVCResearch
I keep buying $BIDU and it keeps going down
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$SOUN has been straight down since issuing shares to $LPSN debtholders on 9/4 - they've clearly been puking these shares Shtcos gonna shtco🤷‍♂️
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I have a loose thesis that aggressive buybacks can, and perhaps will, be the antidote that ails the China internet sector equities. I zero in on $BABA because they've already been putting their $20B+ in annual FCF to work by buying back ~$10B/yr over the last 2 years.
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($BIDU cont) $10B for core biz ($29/shr), it's declining so 3x '27 EBITDA $18B for Cloud/AI biz ($52/shr), 3x '27 Sales for high growth & teens EBIT margins $4B for Apollo self-driving ($12/shr) Total = $88B, or $255/shr Apply whatever discounts you like, this is undervalued
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I keep buying $BIDU and it keeps going down
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1H26 +13.0% Big contributions from semis, semicap, and tech hardware were partially offset by losses in software, hyperscalers, and China Been broadly trimming semis/hw and adding to software; exposure to each bucket is now roughly similar w each at low 20s net % of portfolio
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Tough month & quarter but onwards and upwards... Sept (2.6%) Q326 +0.3% YTD +13.4%
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Fairly mild reaction today IMO to $ACMR's once a year backlog disclosure of +88% y/y. Consensus has revenue growing ~30% y/y in both CY26 & CY27, which feels quite low relative to backlog growth. Stock is still down (36%) in Q3.
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Attn $CMRC board: it's time to put this thing up for sale. You gave Travis a shot, and even tried a name change. Could have worked. Hasn't. It's now time to reconnect with Qatalyst and put us all out of our collective misery. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
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Nice to see the $CMRC board finally waking up from their years long slumber 🥳 If we assume the $70M midpoint of cost cuts fully hit in '27 & flat revenue, they're looking at close to $1.00 in GAAP EPS! Stock is still way too cheap & there's activist involvement now...
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Implies >$1.50 in $SMCI quarterly EPS vs street at $0.71...so the stock is trading at just 5x RR EPS no idea how GMs came in at 16% vs 8% guide, seems odd
BREAKING: SUPERMICRO $SMCI SAYS IT BOOKED MORE THAN $60B IN NEW ORDERS LAST QUARTER, ROUGHLY 5X ITS QUARTERLY REVENUE The preliminary Q4 update cuts three ways: - New orders: in excess of $60B in the quarter, pushing backlog to record levels, to be delivered over future quarters - Gross margins: estimated 15%-17%, nearly double the 8.2%-8.4% guidance, on favorable customer and product mix - Revenue: expected near the low end of the $11.0B-$12.5B guide The read: fewer dollars shipped this quarter, much more profit per dollar shipped, and a demand pipeline far larger than current output. Two caveats from the release itself: - The figures are preliminary and unaudited, and the company notes some orders may not be firm commitments and can be canceled or delayed - The board's previously disclosed independent review of alleged export-control issues could affect these results and prior periods Full results land August 11.
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Penciling out something like $5+ in FY27 NG EPS based on ~$69B revenue midpoint and more normalized ~10.5% GMs When $SMCI peaked at $100+ in FY24, they did $15B in revenue, ~$2 in EPS In FY27, they'll do ~$69B in revenue, and perhaps $5 in EPS. Stock is now at $34...interesting
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Anyone else think $SPT at 1.2x Sales for 10% top line growth, 10% FCF margins is really interesting? I get that all of software is a zero, but what if it’s not 🤔 I’ve been buying this one since November…
$SPT +5.7% post-market on low volume. CEO buys $1M in shares. This comes after co-founder Aaron Rankin purchased $1M a few weeks ago. FWIW, my buyout bets post pitched $SPT as a prime 2026 buyout target and called for planned insider buys to act as a margin of safety 🤣🤣(which clearly has not been the case, still see SPT being bought out tho).
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$SPT posted a modest beat/raise in Q126, but more importantly IMO, announced a $50M buyback (against a ~$450M mkt cap). At 0.75x EV/S & 6x EV/FCF on '26 for ~10% top line growth and margin expansion, this is way too cheap and it's good to see the company finally stepping up
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$SPT could end up doing something like $100M+ in 2027 FCF w the benefit of $50M+ in cost savings from the July RIF. They also plan to start being active on the buyback. Stock is still only at ~1x Sales & ~6x EV/FCF on '27...still way too cheap despite the 100% rally off the lows
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Parent company DoubleU Games offering to buy out minority shares of $DDI. The offer price seems way too low, and hopefully DoubleU will be forced to increase it I wrote up a $DDI long in February valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/… "DoubleU offers $11.25 a share to buy out $DDI investors"
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Interesting: $DDI has traded through the 11.25 offer price today…better offer from DUG on the way perhaps? 🤔
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$DDI just did Q126 FCF/ADS of $0.94, ending the quarter with $10.10/ADS in net cash (up from $9.19/ADS at Q425). $11.25/ADS offer price continues to look like a joke.
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In addition to the blowout acceleration in billings growth, $CMRC reported their first GAAP EPS profitable quarter with $0.05 in Q126 ($0.20 annualized GAAP EPS) This stock should not still be trading at <1 EV/S (currently 0.87x on CY26)
Replying to @CVCResearch
Turnaround plan at $CMRC seems to be working. The last time $CMRC had 14% billings y/y growth, this was an $8+ stock, except this time around growth is accelerating, not decelerating...
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Green shoots🌿 at $CMRC ? 🤔
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Now that $CMRC is disclosing GMV, some observations: - $CMRC monetizes its GMV as well/better than $SHOP in terms of subscription revs - $SHOP's better monetization overall is driven by payments ( $CMRC is launching payments this qtr) - Biggest delta is of course in relative valn
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Turnaround plan at $CMRC seems to be working. The last time $CMRC had 14% billings y/y growth, this was an $8+ stock, except this time around growth is accelerating, not decelerating...
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Quite the move in $ACLS / $VECO today - anyone know what's going on beyond the broad strength in semicap? I'd posted a $VECO long pitch last month (tldr solid growth outlook, too cheap relative to comps): valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/…
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