Brinker Advisor (@BrinkerAdvisor) header
Brinker Advisor (@BrinkerAdvisor) profile picture

Brinker Advisor

@BrinkerAdvisor

Investment ideas and views on the economy from the Brinker family since 1986. Monthly model portfolios, free RATES and ECON tools. https://xitter.cf/t.co/KSJuXZxpzj

 Arizona, USA
brinkeradvisor.com/
Joined September 2026
  • Tweets34
  • Following2
  • Followers10
Energy prices, lifted in part by Middle East oil disruptions from the Iran war, continue to weigh on inflation: overall inflation rose to 3.7% in the year to September while core held near 2.6%. Energy cooled in October but is still up 20.1% since February. Sources: BLS, EIA
Chart titled Inflation's Energy Problem. Lines show the 12-month change in consumer prices: all items (blue) and excluding food and energy (green), November 2025 to September 2026. Both were near 2.4% to 2.7% through February; from March, all items rose to a peak of 4.2% in May and was 3.7% in September, while the core rate stayed between 2.4% and 2.9%, ending at 2.6%. Gold bars on the right-hand scale show the 12-month change in energy prices: down 0.1% in January, up 0.5% in February, 23.5% in May and 20.4% in September. Note below the chart: BLS did not publish October 12-month changes for these three indexes.

ALT Chart titled Inflation's Energy Problem. Lines show the 12-month change in consumer prices: all items (blue) and excluding food and energy (green), November 2025 to September 2026. Both were near 2.4% to 2.7% through February; from March, all items rose to a peak of 4.2% in May and was 3.7% in September, while the core rate stayed between 2.4% and 2.9%, ending at 2.6%. Gold bars on the right-hand scale show the 12-month change in energy prices: down 0.1% in January, up 0.5% in February, 23.5% in May and 20.4% in September. Note below the chart: BLS did not publish October 12-month changes for these three indexes.

12
Weekly Rates Update - November 9, 2026: This week, Treasury yields fell at most maturities, led by the 10-year, which dropped from 4.94% on October 30 to 4.86% on November 6. Rates as of November 6, 2026. Full table at rates.brinkeradvisor.com.
Landscape line chart titled Weekly Rates Update. Subtitle: highest tracked CD APYs exceed Treasury par yields at the six shown maturity buckets; both series exceed VMFXX's 3.89% seven-day SEC yield. Green squares: highest CD APY we track at three months 4.30%, six months 4.55% (a 7-month CD), one year 4.70% (a 13-month CD), two years 4.85%, three years 4.90%, five years 5.00%. Blue circles: Treasury par yield 4.19%, 4.23%, 4.33%, 4.51%, 4.59%, 4.64%. Red dashed line: VMFXX money market 7-day yield 3.89%. CD APY November 6, 2026; Treasury November 6, 2026.

ALT Landscape line chart titled Weekly Rates Update. Subtitle: highest tracked CD APYs exceed Treasury par yields at the six shown maturity buckets; both series exceed VMFXX's 3.89% seven-day SEC yield. Green squares: highest CD APY we track at three months 4.30%, six months 4.55% (a 7-month CD), one year 4.70% (a 13-month CD), two years 4.85%, three years 4.90%, five years 5.00%. Blue circles: Treasury par yield 4.19%, 4.23%, 4.33%, 4.51%, 4.59%, 4.64%. Red dashed line: VMFXX money market 7-day yield 3.89%. CD APY November 6, 2026; Treasury November 6, 2026.

9
Weekly Rates Update - November 2, 2026: This week, Treasury yields fell at every maturity except the 2-month, led by the 2-year, which dropped from 4.69% on October 23 to 4.56% on October 30. Rates as of October 30, 2026. Full table at rates.brinkeradvisor.com.
Landscape line chart titled Weekly Rates Update. Subtitle: highest tracked CD APYs exceed Treasury par yields at the six shown maturity buckets; both series exceed VMFXX's 3.88% seven-day SEC yield. Green squares: highest CD APY we track at 3 months 4.30%, 6 months 4.55% (a 7-month CD), 1 year 4.65%, 2 years 4.85%, 3 years 4.90%, 5 years 5.00%. Blue circles: Treasury par yield 4.16%, 4.25%, 4.36%, 4.56%, 4.65%, 4.71%. Red dashed line: VMFXX money market 7-day yield 3.88%. CD APY October 30, 2026; Treasury October 30, 2026.

ALT Landscape line chart titled Weekly Rates Update. Subtitle: highest tracked CD APYs exceed Treasury par yields at the six shown maturity buckets; both series exceed VMFXX's 3.88% seven-day SEC yield. Green squares: highest CD APY we track at 3 months 4.30%, 6 months 4.55% (a 7-month CD), 1 year 4.65%, 2 years 4.85%, 3 years 4.90%, 5 years 5.00%. Blue circles: Treasury par yield 4.16%, 4.25%, 4.36%, 4.56%, 4.65%, 4.71%. Red dashed line: VMFXX money market 7-day yield 3.88%. CD APY October 30, 2026; Treasury October 30, 2026.

22
Model Portfolios | November Update Our November Model Portfolios update is now available to subscribers. Inside, we discuss elevated stock market concentration, the new Series I bond rate, third-quarter GDP, and the most recent FOMC meeting. brinkeradvisor.com/p/model-p…
Brinker Advisor graphic, Model Portfolios November Update, now available to subscribers. Line chart of the top 10 companies' share of the S&P 500, quarterly, 1965 to 2026: 38.2% in June 1965, a low of 17.1% in June 1994, 26.6% at the March 2000 dot-com peak, and 39.1% in September 2026. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices.

ALT Brinker Advisor graphic, Model Portfolios November Update, now available to subscribers. Line chart of the top 10 companies' share of the S&P 500, quarterly, 1965 to 2026: 38.2% in June 1965, a low of 17.1% in June 1994, 26.6% at the March 2000 dot-com peak, and 39.1% in September 2026. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Bar chart of inflation-protected yields as of October 30, 2026: the I bond fixed rate of 1.40% compared with TIPS real yields of 2.25% (5-year), 2.42% (7-year), 2.60% (10-year), 2.92% (20-year) and 3.08% (30-year). The slide adds: the I bond's new 1.40% fixed rate is the highest since 2006, but TIPS real yields are higher at every maturity shown. Sources: TreasuryDirect; U.S. Treasury.

ALT Bar chart of inflation-protected yields as of October 30, 2026: the I bond fixed rate of 1.40% compared with TIPS real yields of 2.25% (5-year), 2.42% (7-year), 2.60% (10-year), 2.92% (20-year) and 3.08% (30-year). The slide adds: the I bond's new 1.40% fixed rate is the highest since 2006, but TIPS real yields are higher at every maturity shown. Sources: TreasuryDirect; U.S. Treasury.

34
Brinker Advisor retweeted
Bob Brinker (@BobBrinker) profile picture
Bob Brinker@BobBrinkerOct 31
Our November 2026 update of the Marketimer and Brinker Fixed Income Advisor Model Portfolios is now available to subscribers --> brinkeradvisor.com/p/model-p…
Image from Bob Brinker (@BobBrinker)
2
6
623
Is 4 to 5% the new normal? Apart from brief dips, the 10-year has held at or above 4% for 24 months. The last two such runs ended as the Fed turned to rate cuts. Today the Fed's latest move was a hike. Data as of October 27, 2026. Current rates at rates.brinkeradvisor.com.
Line chart of the 10-year Treasury yield through October 27, 2026, highlighting periods at or above 4%. The latest run has lasted 24 months, allowing brief dips of fewer than 20 trading days.

ALT Line chart of the 10-year Treasury yield through October 27, 2026, highlighting periods at or above 4%. The latest run has lasted 24 months, allowing brief dips of fewer than 20 trading days.

25
Brinker Advisor retweeted
Brinker Advisor (@BrinkerAdvisor) profile picture
Brinker Advisor@BrinkerAdvisorOct 26
Weekly Rates Update - October 26, 2026: CDs continue to yield slightly more than Treasuries at each key maturity this week, from 3 months to 5 years. Rates as of October 23, 2026. Full table at rates.brinkeradvisor.com.
Landscape line chart titled Weekly Rates Update. Green squares: highest CD APY we track at 3 months 4.30%, 6 months 4.55%, 1 year 4.70%, 2 years 4.91%, 3 years 4.85%, 5 years 5.00%. Blue circles: Treasury par yield 4.22%, 4.30%, 4.44%, 4.69%, 4.75%, 4.82%. Red dashed line: VMFXX money market 7-day yield 3.85%. CD APY October 23, 2026; Treasury October 23, 2026.

ALT Landscape line chart titled Weekly Rates Update. Green squares: highest CD APY we track at 3 months 4.30%, 6 months 4.55%, 1 year 4.70%, 2 years 4.91%, 3 years 4.85%, 5 years 5.00%. Blue circles: Treasury par yield 4.22%, 4.30%, 4.44%, 4.69%, 4.75%, 4.82%. Red dashed line: VMFXX money market 7-day yield 3.85%. CD APY October 23, 2026; Treasury October 23, 2026.

1
12
Weekly Rates Update - October 26, 2026: CDs continue to yield slightly more than Treasuries at each key maturity this week, from 3 months to 5 years. Rates as of October 23, 2026. Full table at rates.brinkeradvisor.com.
Landscape line chart titled Weekly Rates Update. Green squares: highest CD APY we track at 3 months 4.30%, 6 months 4.55%, 1 year 4.70%, 2 years 4.91%, 3 years 4.85%, 5 years 5.00%. Blue circles: Treasury par yield 4.22%, 4.30%, 4.44%, 4.69%, 4.75%, 4.82%. Red dashed line: VMFXX money market 7-day yield 3.85%. CD APY October 23, 2026; Treasury October 23, 2026.

ALT Landscape line chart titled Weekly Rates Update. Green squares: highest CD APY we track at 3 months 4.30%, 6 months 4.55%, 1 year 4.70%, 2 years 4.91%, 3 years 4.85%, 5 years 5.00%. Blue circles: Treasury par yield 4.22%, 4.30%, 4.44%, 4.69%, 4.75%, 4.82%. Red dashed line: VMFXX money market 7-day yield 3.85%. CD APY October 23, 2026; Treasury October 23, 2026.

1
12
Weekly Rates Update: where cash pays this week. CDs lead at all six maturities. The gap is widest at one year (29 basis points) and narrowest at three years (3 basis points). CD APY October 19, 2026; Treasury par yield October 16, 2026. Full comparison: rates.brinkeradvisor.com
Line chart titled Weekly Rates Update. Green squares: highest CD APY we track at 3 months 4.30%, 6 months 4.55%, 1 year 4.75%, 2 years 4.80%, 3 years 4.85%, 5 years 5.00%. Blue circles: Treasury par yield 4.26%, 4.34%, 4.46%, 4.74%, 4.82%, 4.89%. Red dashed line: VMFXX money market 7-day yield 3.82%. CD APY October 19, 2026; Treasury October 16, 2026.

ALT Line chart titled Weekly Rates Update. Green squares: highest CD APY we track at 3 months 4.30%, 6 months 4.55%, 1 year 4.75%, 2 years 4.80%, 3 years 4.85%, 5 years 5.00%. Blue circles: Treasury par yield 4.26%, 4.34%, 4.46%, 4.74%, 4.82%, 4.89%. Red dashed line: VMFXX money market 7-day yield 3.82%. CD APY October 19, 2026; Treasury October 16, 2026.

2
23
1/ Social Security benefits rise 3.6% in 2027, the largest COLA since 2023. Average retirement check: $2,095 to $2,170 a month in January. Our annual update, in five charts.
2027 Social Security COLA is 3.6%. Average monthly retirement benefit rises from $2,095 to $2,170, about $75. For full retirement age 67, claiming at 62 pays 70% of the full benefit; claiming at 70 pays 124%.

ALT 2027 Social Security COLA is 3.6%. Average monthly retirement benefit rises from $2,095 to $2,170, about $75. For full retirement age 67, claiming at 62 pays 70% of the full benefit; claiming at 70 pays 124%.

1
1
2
339
more replies
5/ The surviving spouse keeps one check, not two. If the worker claimed at 62 the survivor keeps $1,790 in our illustration; if the worker waited until 70, $2,690. About $900 a month, before future COLAs.
Illustrative monthly household benefits with a $2,170 full benefit and spouse's $1,085 own benefit. Worker claimed at 62: $2,604 while both live and $1,790 for the survivor. Worker claimed at 70: $3,775 while both live and $2,690 for the survivor, about $900 more. Survivor at or above survivor full retirement age; worker died after claiming; future COLAs and taxes excluded.

ALT Illustrative monthly household benefits with a $2,170 full benefit and spouse's $1,085 own benefit. Worker claimed at 62: $2,604 while both live and $1,790 for the survivor. Worker claimed at 70: $3,775 while both live and $2,690 for the survivor, about $900 more. Survivor at or above survivor full retirement age; worker died after claiming; future COLAs and taxes excluded.

1
16
6/ Earnings limits, the $4,188 maximum benefit, notice dates and the full survivor illustration are in the post: brinkeradvisor.com/p/annual-… Educational information, not personalized tax or financial advice. Figures from SSA, BLS and CMS as of Oct 14, 2026.
14
CD or Treasury? Start with the term. Compare this week's CD APYs with Treasury par yields, then check dates and issuer terms. BrinkerAdvisor Rates is now in Claude's community directory. Explore: claude.ai/directory/brinkera…
Line chart of highest tracked CD APYs and Treasury par yields across evenly spaced maturity rungs. CD/Treasury: 3 months 4.30/4.19%; 6-month rung 4.35/4.27%; 1 year 4.75/4.46%; 18 months 4.65/unavailable; 2 years 4.70/4.83%; 3 years 4.85/4.96%; 4 years 4.95/unavailable; 5 years 5.00/5.06%. The 6-month rung marker uses an OMB 5-month CD; a Popular Direct 6-month CD ties at 4.35%. No Treasury values are estimated at missing tenors. CD snapshot October 5; Treasury October 2, 2026. Different measures, pre-tax references. BrinkerAdvisor Rates is also in Claude.

ALT Line chart of highest tracked CD APYs and Treasury par yields across evenly spaced maturity rungs. CD/Treasury: 3 months 4.30/4.19%; 6-month rung 4.35/4.27%; 1 year 4.75/4.46%; 18 months 4.65/unavailable; 2 years 4.70/4.83%; 3 years 4.85/4.96%; 4 years 4.95/unavailable; 5 years 5.00/5.06%. The 6-month rung marker uses an OMB 5-month CD; a Popular Direct 6-month CD ties at 4.35%. No Treasury values are estimated at missing tenors. CD snapshot October 5; Treasury October 2, 2026. Different measures, pre-tax references. BrinkerAdvisor Rates is also in Claude.

Ask Claude about CDs and Treasuries. BrinkerAdvisor Rates is listed as a community connector. Suggested prompt: Compare 1-year CD APYs with Treasury par yields. Show the data dates and source links. Public information; no financial-account access or trades. Explore claude.ai/directory/brinkeradvisor-rates. Listing checked October 5, 2026.

ALT Ask Claude about CDs and Treasuries. BrinkerAdvisor Rates is listed as a community connector. Suggested prompt: Compare 1-year CD APYs with Treasury par yields. Show the data dates and source links. Public information; no financial-account access or trades. Explore claude.ai/directory/brinkeradvisor-rates. Listing checked October 5, 2026.

39
Can the bank end your CD early? A callable CD may let the bank redeem it before maturity. Check the call schedule and your separate early-exit rules. Explore free RATES: rates.brinkeradvisor.com/
Can the bank end your CD early? Yes, if it is callable. Its terms may let the issuing bank redeem the CD before its stated maturity. Check the call terms before buying. Free RATES: rates.brinkeradvisor.com.

ALT Can the bank end your CD early? Yes, if it is callable. Its terms may let the issuing bank redeem the CD before its stated maturity. Check the call terms before buying. Free RATES: rates.brinkeradvisor.com.

The call right belongs to the bank. Your exit rules are separate. A call feature does not grant the same early-withdrawal right. If rates fall and the bank calls the CD, reinvestment may mean a lower rate.

ALT The call right belongs to the bank. Your exit rules are separate. A call feature does not grant the same early-withdrawal right. If rates fall and the bank calls the CD, reinvestment may mean a lower rate.

Read more than the rate. Check whether the CD is callable, when the bank may call it, and your early-exit terms. Use RATES to find listings and confirm terms with the issuer.

ALT Read more than the rate. Check whether the CD is callable, when the bank may call it, and your early-exit terms. Use RATES to find listings and confirm terms with the issuer.

49
How does a Treasury bill pay? Bills sell at a discount or at face value. At maturity, you receive face value; the difference from your purchase price is interest. Source: TreasuryDirect. Explore free RATES: rates.brinkeradvisor.com/
Brinker Advisor explains a bill's cash flow. Bills sell at a discount or face value; at maturity you receive face value. Face value minus purchase price is interest. Free RATES at rates.brinkeradvisor.com. Source TreasuryDirect.

ALT Brinker Advisor explains a bill's cash flow. Bills sell at a discount or face value; at maturity you receive face value. Face value minus purchase price is interest. Free RATES at rates.brinkeradvisor.com. Source TreasuryDirect.

23
September jobs: +29K payrolls; unemployment 4.2%. July/Aug payroll revisions: −60K combined. Three-month payroll average: +51K; 12-month: +41K. Both charts, from today's BLS report: econ.brinkeradvisor.com/
Brinker Advisor's September2026 jobs chart. September nonfarm payrolls increased29,000. Three-month average monthly change, July–September, was about51,000; twelve-month average, October2025–September2026, was about41,000. Gray bars show the three-month average, gray tick marks show each monthly change, and a navy line shows the twelve-month average, October2021 through September2026. The full vertical range includes monthly declines. July/August revisions total minus60,000. Source BLS; historical ECON data via FRED. Explore econ.brinkeradvisor.com.

ALT Brinker Advisor's September2026 jobs chart. September nonfarm payrolls increased29,000. Three-month average monthly change, July–September, was about51,000; twelve-month average, October2025–September2026, was about41,000. Gray bars show the three-month average, gray tick marks show each monthly change, and a navy line shows the twelve-month average, October2021 through September2026. The full vertical range includes monthly declines. July/August revisions total minus60,000. Source BLS; historical ECON data via FRED. Explore econ.brinkeradvisor.com.

Brinker Advisor chart of the seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate, October2021–September2026. Latest4.2%, up0.1 percentage point from August and down0.2 point from September2025. Navy line falls into2023 before rising; October2025 is unavailable and a visible gap is left. This is the separate household survey, not payroll employment. Source BLS; historical ECON data via FRED. Explore econ.brinkeradvisor.com.

ALT Brinker Advisor chart of the seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate, October2021–September2026. Latest4.2%, up0.1 percentage point from August and down0.2 point from September2025. Navy line falls into2023 before rising; October2025 is unavailable and a visible gap is left. This is the separate household survey, not payroll employment. Source BLS; historical ECON data via FRED. Explore econ.brinkeradvisor.com.

1
1
259
Our October 2026 update of the Marketimer and Brinker Fixed Income Advisor Model Portfolios is now available to subscribers. brinkeradvisor.com/p/model-p…
Image from Brinker Advisor (@BrinkerAdvisor)
21
Load more