Abhishek Parihar

1/10 Stuck in ITC or planning to buy the dip? Read this carefully. ITC isn’t falling on fear or sentiment. It’s falling on policy + math + structure. Here’s the full breakdown 👇🧵 #ITC #IndianMarkets #StockMarketIndia

2/10 Policy Trigger From Feb 1, cigarettes face: • 40% GST • NCCD (specific excise) Net impact: ITC needs a ~35–40% price hike just to protect margins. ITC Cigarettes (Base Variants | Indicative MRPs) (per pack) - Gold Flake (10) Old: ₹170 → New (post-tax): ₹240 - Gold Flake Kings (20) Old: ₹340 → New (post-tax): ₹476 - Wills Navy Cut / Wills Classic (10) Old: ₹100 → New (post-tax): ₹140 - Classic Mild / Balanced (20) Old: ₹340 → New (post-tax): ₹476 That’s not a small tweak — it’s a shock. #TobaccoTax #UnionBudget #Markets

3/10 (Why Price Hike Won’t Pass Easily) A 35–40% hike cannot be taken in one go. History is clear: • Sharp hikes = volume destruction • Consumers down-trade • Or exit legal channels entirely (Results In Loss to Government Taxes) #PricingPower #ConsumerBehavior

4/10 (Illicit Trade Reality) What fills the gap? • Cheaper counterfeits • Smuggled packs via Nepal & Bhutan routes • Unreported volumes outside the tax net This has played out every single time taxes jumped sharply. #IllicitTrade #IndiaEconomy

5/10 (The Profit Concentration Risk) Here’s the part most dip buyers ignore: Cigarettes = ~78% of ITC’s profits (not revenues — profits) Even a single-digit volume decline causes a disproportionate EPS hit. #Earnings #BusinessModel #EquityResearch

6/10 Why FMCG Can’t Save It — Yet) Yes, FMCG is growing. No, it won’t cushion earnings this year. • Lower margins • Higher competition • Needs scale + time This is a great long-term story, not a short-term earnings shield. #FMCG #LongTermInvesting

7/10 Fund & ESG Angle Adds another layer: • ESG-driven selling • Funds rotating to cleaner staples • Regulatory risk gets repriced This isn’t retail panic — it’s institutional reallocation. #ESG #FundFlows #MarketStructure

8/10 (Technical Confirmation) Charts are confirming fundamentals. Renko breakdowns: • ₹410 ❌ • ₹380 ❌ No base. No absorption. That’s classic falling knife structure. #TechnicalAnalysis #Renko

9/10 (Time & Verdict) This doesn’t mean ITC is bad. It means timing matters. ⏳ Upside likely capped for 6–9 months ⚠️Let volumes stabilize ⚠️Let price hikes digest This is avoid, not average territory. #RiskManagement #CapitalPreservation

10/ 10 (Important) If you’re bullish — make the case. • How do volumes hold post-hike? • How fast can FMCG offset profit loss? • Where’s the technical base? Markets reward numbers, not narratives. #Investing #MarketDebate

The tweet asks why people hate Indians. Answer: Because we dominate. Facts that burn: - Indian Americans have the highest median household income in the US at $151,200 (2023 Census) – way above every other group. - 16 of the top 100 Fortune 500 CEOs are Indian-origin (2024 data). - Indians founded/co-founded 20% of all US unicorns (CB Insights 2024). - Indian immigrants pay 5-6% of total US income tax while being only 1.5% of the population (IRS data). - We lead in patents, startups, Nobel laureates, and billionaires per capita. The hate? Pure envy + fear. White America resents us for outworking them. Outsourcing firms like Infosys and TCS get blamed for H-1B abuse, but that’s just the excuse. Truth is: we arrive with nothing, study harder, work longer, and win. They call it taking jobs. We call it earning what they won’t. Hate us all you want. We built empires while they complain. Proud Indian. Unstoppable. 🇮🇳 Bookmark if you bleed blue.

1/15 What I’m about to give you for FREE in this thread is the exact Options Trading Crash Course that people happily pay ₹15,000–₹45,000 for in paid groups and bootcamps. Zero paywall. Zero upsell. Just pure alpha. If you actually apply this, bookmark it right now. Let’s turn you into a deadly options trader today #OptionsTrading #Nifty #BankNifty

1/9 7 Brutal Money Rules Most Indians Will Ignore in 2025 (I learned them after losing 7 figures) Save this. Apply even 3 → you win. Let’s begin 👇