Abhishek Parihar

10/ 10 (Important) If you’re bullish — make the case. • How do volumes hold post-hike? • How fast can FMCG offset profit loss? • Where’s the technical base? Markets reward numbers, not narratives. #Investing #MarketDebate

9/10 (Time & Verdict) This doesn’t mean ITC is bad. It means timing matters. ⏳ Upside likely capped for 6–9 months ⚠️Let volumes stabilize ⚠️Let price hikes digest This is avoid, not average territory. #RiskManagement #CapitalPreservation

8/10 (Technical Confirmation) Charts are confirming fundamentals. Renko breakdowns: • ₹410 ❌ • ₹380 ❌ No base. No absorption. That’s classic falling knife structure. #TechnicalAnalysis #Renko

5/10 (The Profit Concentration Risk) Here’s the part most dip buyers ignore: Cigarettes = ~78% of ITC’s profits (not revenues — profits) Even a single-digit volume decline causes a disproportionate EPS hit. #Earnings #BusinessModel #EquityResearch

4/10 (Illicit Trade Reality) What fills the gap? • Cheaper counterfeits • Smuggled packs via Nepal & Bhutan routes • Unreported volumes outside the tax net This has played out every single time taxes jumped sharply. #IllicitTrade #IndiaEconomy

3/10 (Why Price Hike Won’t Pass Easily) A 35–40% hike cannot be taken in one go. History is clear: • Sharp hikes = volume destruction • Consumers down-trade • Or exit legal channels entirely (Results In Loss to Government Taxes) #PricingPower #ConsumerBehavior

2/10 Policy Trigger From Feb 1, cigarettes face: • 40% GST • NCCD (specific excise) Net impact: ITC needs a ~35–40% price hike just to protect margins. ITC Cigarettes (Base Variants | Indicative MRPs) (per pack) - Gold Flake (10) Old: ₹170 → New (post-tax): ₹240 - Gold Flake Kings (20) Old: ₹340 → New (post-tax): ₹476 - Wills Navy Cut / Wills Classic (10) Old: ₹100 → New (post-tax): ₹140 - Classic Mild / Balanced (20) Old: ₹340 → New (post-tax): ₹476 That’s not a small tweak — it’s a shock. #TobaccoTax #UnionBudget #Markets

1/10 Stuck in ITC or planning to buy the dip? Read this carefully. ITC isn’t falling on fear or sentiment. It’s falling on policy + math + structure. Here’s the full breakdown 👇🧵 #ITC #IndianMarkets #StockMarketIndia

Options don’t destroy accounts. Ego does. Oversizing after wins. Refusing to cut exposure. Believing you’ve figured it out. Position sizing is boring. That’s why it works.

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