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$PIF.TO #PIF #PolarisRenewable Update of its FY'2025 results. Link in picture, below and bio:
* Results analysis
* Mexico: new horizons
* Acquisitions/Developments
swearengenenterprises.substa…
1/ $CTOS.KL $5301.KL Update on the Cybersec Incident
-Certain credit reporting services remain temp offline
- Assuming 3. week of October as the starting of the services again: hit of 16M in revenues and 12M to PATAMI. For each add week 2.5M revenues and 1.3M PATAMI
@finphysnerd
Pretty good and deep value research about Kusurinomadoguchi $5592.T, Japan's healthcare system, SaaS healthcare in Japan and more
xitter.cf/MallardResearch/status…
$5592.T operates Japan’s 🇯🇵 largest pharmacy reservation platform.
• 34% EBIT CAGR
• Network effects
• Recurring revenue & high margins
• Hikari Tsushin owns 40%
• Proven management team
Trading at a 40% discount to peers likely due to forced selling.
Link in bio
"You can spend 100s of hours and 100s of lines of modeling. I look for 3-4 simple things. Top line growth, bottom line growth (= top), ROE, risks in the biz and how much you pay (do not look at mult 1-2 years back, more 10 yrs back"
Very good interview
xitter.cf/janeo1934/status/20903…
I enjoyed this old interview with the founder of Malaysia based PE Creador Capital
youtube.com/watch?v=0aKioiD0…
"3 steps: gather data, analyze data, process data, and then make a decision. Data gathering ~100% can be automated; data processing I think 80% can be automated... and then the judgment call is still I think 100% human driven"
Good conv w @huaxying
youtu.be/fG-pl1mFQVY?si=GWdk…
Very good deep dive about the opportunity in $HBR.L #HBR Harbour Energy:
xitter.cf/MLmeign1/status/207665…
Harbour Energy $HBR.L is the largest independent oil producer listed in London.
Most people still file it as a tired North Sea play. It hasn't been that for two years.
Here's the setup, and why I'm long. 🧵👇(Full deep dive in the first comment.)
—
After buying Wintershall Dea and LLOG's US Gulf business, Harbour pumps close to 500,000 barrels a day across five countries.
$12.80 to lift a barrel. Investment grade.
—
It's cheap for two reasons the market has right.
Norway and the UK tax the marginal barrel at 78%. And 2027 free cash flow dips.
Both are real. Neither is the whole story.
—
The 2027 dip isn't damage. It's a payment schedule.
Norway collects its tax in instalments, so a strong 2026 gets partly settled with 2027 cash. Revenue is fine. The calendar just goes out of phase with the barrel.
Harbour's own presentation calls it "the tax lag effect."
—
The bigger picture is the tax rate itself.
Every barrel Harbour adds is taxed at 23% in the US Gulf, far below the 78% North Sea.
Price the company at a flat mid-cycle deck and free cash flow still climbs from ~$0.6bn to ~$1.0bn in two years.
—
Then there's why it's cheap right now, and it has nothing to do with the business.
Shareholders who took stock as payment for assets have been dumping it. BASF has gone from 46.5% to under 25%. EIG cleared its entire remaining stake at 205p.
—
Where that leaves it:
~$9 per barrel of reserves in the ground, vs $19 for Ithaca and $21 for Aker BP
~1.5x cash operating profit
~13% distribution yield while you wait
Below every published price target
—
The honest risk, which I lead with in the piece rather than bury:
The whole sector may stay cheap regardless. If that de-rating is structural, this is a value trap and I'm wrong about all of it.
I don't think it is.
I also got oil badly wrong earlier this year. Picked an unhedged producer on a macro call and watched it break.
Which is exactly why I like this one. It's 60% gas, hedged, and nowhere near Hormuz.
It doesn't need me to be right about the barrel.
—
Full deep dive in the first comment.
The numbers, the tax mechanics, a proper valuation, and a full section on how I could be wrong.
Long and disclosed. Not advice.
TU $MFD.AX #MayfieldChildcare:
- Withdrawal FY'26 Guidance
- Rising Labor Costs, occupancy volatility, regulatory changes...
- Banking Facility Deadline: 31st August 2026...
Given this level of op+fin instability, it's hard to believe they didn't sell at 0.50AUD to $EVO.AX
$CAF.AX #CentrepointAlliance interesting dynamic with Australian Wealth Advisors (WAG) buying more and SAGE (Sequoia Financial) selling. And I guess for Sequoia is only the beginning, they will need to sell even more of their remaining 13.65% with their problems...
$PIF.TO #PolarisRenewable advances in the execution of the 3 Mexican projects (details below). All 3 are selected for final contract stage:
- End of July for the final PPA contracts (25 years)
- Between April 2028 and December 2028 COD for the 3 projects
xitter.cf/BitchesBrewCap/status/…
$PIF.TO #PIF #PolarisRenewable big news for the expansion in Mexico. All 3 projects selected to advance to final contract negotiations.
250 MW Solar+180 MWh batt, w 25-year PPA
Bigger than current Polaris portfolio (~182 MW)
Mexico's moving faster...
xitter.cf/TomSmith839/status/206…
$PIF.TO #PIF #PolarisRenewable big news for the expansion in Mexico. All 3 projects selected to advance to final contract negotiations.
250 MW Solar+180 MWh batt, w 25-year PPA
Bigger than current Polaris portfolio (~182 MW)
Mexico's moving faster...
xitter.cf/TomSmith839/status/206…
5/ They're being very aggresive in the reinvestment. Net cash position at 2.8m, lower than FY'25. They deployed 10.2m in inventory and 2.5m in loan book. They're also opening new stores targeting the 10-12 new openings, so they need investment...






























