@BenSManning

Phd Student @MIT | Economics, AI, & Behavioral Science | Research: https://nitter.cf/t.co/DvYK0d3Hsb

Cambridge, MA
Joined February 2022
Brand new paper with @johnjhorton that I'm very excited to share: "General Social Agents" Suppose we wanted to create AI agents for simulations to make predictions in never-before-seen settings. How might we do this? We explore an approach to answering that question!
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This lineup is bananas….
Excited to announce that Northwestern Economics now has a seminar series on the economics of AI! Organized jointly with the Kellogg Math Center and the Ryan Institute, it kicks off Oct 6 with a talk by Jon Kleinberg. Full lineup below.
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That OpenAI is holding off on Astra 6.1 release due to alignment concerns should be celebrated, just as Mythos going first to Glasswing was. We are very fortunate that, even without regulation, the leading Western labs are moving quite cautiously despite the commercial damage.
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We have a new paper out today: "What if automating AI R&D triggers an intelligence explosion?" led by @_achan96_, with an incredible team of collaborators. casp.ac/reports/intelligence… 🧵
Could automating AI R&D radically accelerate AI progress in an “intelligence explosion”? Preliminary evidence suggests that it could. In a new paper with authors across academia, civil society, and frontier AI companies (including @dawnsongtweets @merettm @jackclarkSF @Yoshua_Bengio @geoffreyhinton ), we assess the evidence & offer policy recommendations 🧵
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I have been interested in LLM simulations of humans for a while, and recently saw lots of posters congratulating Aaru on these results. So I did what any curious person should do after reading the post, check the quality of the analysis by asking ChatGPT and Refine (if you want to be more thorough). Here's what both AI referees say. Aaru uses a mystery methodology, doesn't have a good baseline model hurdle to clear, has potential data leakage issues, and makes unjustified statistical claims and comparisons to the published literature. Perhaps Aaru has made a real advance and the above issues can be addressed. But without peer review or other pressure to force the authors to address them, we can't be sure. Until then, skepticism is warranted.
Simulation has the potential to be transformative, but only if it's accurate. Today, we're sharing results of a comprehensive evaluation across 2,993 questions, with an industry-leading mean TVD of 7.62% and an MAE of 3.53%. More below, including the full post on our site.
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Excited to see more work on designing agents for markets. In a related paper with Crystal, @BenSManning @johnjhorton and collaborators at @GoogleDeepMind , we compare humans and AI agents in multi-agent bargaining market about a set of assets and cash. dl.acm.org/doi/full/10.1145/…
Super cool research. My take away: for people to trust agents for their transactions, we need better methods of getting agents to understand the preferences of their users.
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I was privileged to attend this conference and will try to tweet about some of the excellent papers in the next few days. Important work being done, not least by OpenAI’s own econ team. It’s good that this exists and that the labs see the value of economic thinking.
Today we're hosting the 2026 @OpenAI AGI Economy Conference where we and researchers from across academia and industry will bring their different areas of expertise about where we are and where we're going because of AI. 🧵
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New research: Project Swap To see what works & what breaks when agents are sent into a marketplace, we made a mini barter economy of Claudes. It gave us an early look at the economy of the future––and the challenges to overcome to make agent-run markets efficient, safe & fair.
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Today we're hosting the 2026 @OpenAI AGI Economy Conference where we and researchers from across academia and industry will bring their different areas of expertise about where we are and where we're going because of AI. 🧵
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Excited to be on this panel next week! with @rossdawson @JayaGup10 @pdgoldman luma.com/qgkihxos (I'm told SPEAKERINVITE gets you a 40% discount!)
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Coming soon to @ExpectedParrot : new question type that asks for empirical distributions from LLMs and/or humans
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A few (personal) thoughts on reading empirical AI papers on the economy. Economists have gotten used to reading papers with super clean identification, arguing about the validity of an instrument, making sure parallel trend assumptions are satisfied. This is what gets you into a top journal, and it is *very* important research (no question here). But it also takes years and sometimes decades to get these types of papers right---people often don't find a good instrument to answer a specific causal question decades after the natural experiment. We will eventually have this type of research for AI as well, and it is absolutely necessary. But right we also need signals *right now*, even if they are noisier than what we are used to. We need papers where we can trust that researchers did their best methodologically, while at the same time acknowledging that the space is moving way too fast to wait for perfect identification. This will allow us to accumulate enough signals, coming at the same question using different angles, for example, to say "yes, X is likely happening in the economy". The AI exposure and early career hiring papers are a good example of this. There is no silver bullet paper with super clean identification. But at this point we have several independent teams reaching the same general conclusion, enough where we can say "there seems to be a slow down in AI-exposed, early career hiring."
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Fantastic paper AND Victor is a 3rd year MIT Sloan PhD student in the IT group!
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A must read. Probably, a must re-read (because it’s so good and the material is so important!)
Describing three stages at which AI enters the measurement pipeline—discovery, construct definition, and observation—and what each demands of researchers, from Melissa Dell and @asheshrambachan nber.org/papers/w35744
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New paper with Kazimier Smith and @ProfNeilT at @MITFutureTech and @mit_ide: "Birth, Life, and Death of AI Models." We track the lifecycle of open-weight AI models using a weekly panel of the ~108k most-downloaded models on @huggingface (>53B downloads) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
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As someone who is not at all biased…. I agree!!!
Here, @SabrinaHalper and I are discussing my recent work on “prompt adaptation” as a complement to generative AI capabilities. I think the paper is really interesting and worth reading! But of course, I’m biased. The full paper can be found here: pubsonline.informs.org/doi/f… This is joint work with @eamanjahani, @BenSManning, @joe_z_zhang, @ocolluphid, @malsobay, @CNicolaides and @ssuri.
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Okay a little biased
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