The biggest part of the $OPEN thesis may be the housing volume that does not exist yet. Today, moving is miserable. You find the house you want. But first you have to sell your current home. That can take 60-120 days. By the time you sell, the home you wanted may be gone. Then you still have to finance and close the new purchase. So what should be a move becomes a 4-6 month project. That friction destroys demand. Millions of people who would like to move simply decide: “Not worth the headache.” Now imagine a radically different experience. You sell Friday. You buy Friday. You move Saturday. That is what @nejatian and Opendoor could eventually make possible. You find the new house. You connect your current home. Opendoor guarantees the purchase of your existing home, handles financing, title and closing, and coordinates both sides of the transaction. Suddenly the product is no longer: “Sell your house to Opendoor.” It becomes: “Move whenever you want.” That is a much bigger idea. And this is where the moat gets interesting. Zillow can show you the house. Rocket can give you the mortgage. A title company can close it. A Realtor can list your old home. But none of them can guarantee the entire move and all of them who tried ibuying gave up. Opendoor potentially can because it has the pricing engine, balance sheet, home acquisition infrastructure, mortgage, title and transaction stack required to provide certainty on your old home while helping you buy the next one. That guarantee is the product. And once consumers trust it, competitors cannot easily copy it by adding another button to an app. They would need the infrastructure and capital to actually stand behind the transaction. Now consider what that could do to the size of the market. ~4.4M homes transact annually today. If drastically reducing friction increases moves by just 15%, that creates roughly: 660K incremental transactions. If Opendoor is the platform uniquely enabling those transactions and captures 80%: ~500K Opendoor transactions. At a $400K average home price and ~3% monetization across mortgage, title, closing and transaction services: ~$6B of high-margin revenue. At a hypothetical 35% net margin: ~$2.1B net income. Then add the portion where Opendoor actually purchases the seller’s home through 1P and the economics potentially get even larger. The exact numbers are obviously debatable. The important part is the mechanism. Most people are asking: “How much of today’s housing market can Opendoor capture?” I think the better question is: “How much larger can Opendoor make the housing market by removing the friction that stops people from moving?” Because if Opendoor is the only company capable of delivering: You sell Friday. You buy Friday. You move Saturday. then it may not just capture existing housing volume. It could create the transaction volume and own the infrastructure required to make it happen.

Hey @fahdananta and @morganb have there been any discussions around launching a subscription product for homeowners who aren’t planning to move anytime soon? Something like Opendoor Home or Home OS at like ~$20/month could give homeowners: • Live home value + equity tracking • Mortgage monitoring + refi alerts • Property tax monitoring • AI maintenance planning • Repair + renovation cost estimates • Renovation ROI analysis • Home document/warranty vault • Preferred mortgage, title and escrow pricing • Home service discounts • Estimated net proceeds if you sold today • Better economics when you eventually buy or sell through Opendoor You could even include it free for 5 years with every home bought through Opendoor. Someone like me may have no intention of selling for years, but I’d still get real value from Opendoor’s tech stack today and could probably cover the cost of the app for years with one potential Property Tax savings analysis. That creates a customer relationship years before the transaction happens, generates recurring high-margin revenue, and reduces some of the dependence on housing transaction volumes and the macro cycle. Feels like a natural extension of where the platform is heading and with your combined skills on product and growth it seems like something ya’ll could really get ramped up quickly.

The $OPEN stat I care about: Homes are clearing 22% faster than MLS. Acquisitions can slow while they test. Fine. But for 3P, this is the pitch: Same price. Faster sale. If Opendoor proves that, sellers will care.

A simple 3P test with Lennar could help Opendoor add high-quality supply without balance-sheet risk, help Lennar turn inventory into cash faster, and give buyers a broader, easier path to new homes.

This is a solid read. Good opportunity to get into one of @BillAckman ‘s highest conviction positions at a price point way below him.

The biggest thing the world economy could use right now, which would also help bring down inflation, rates, and yes, help $OPEN: ⚡️ Cheaper energy. And the fastest path there may be a deal with Iran. Lower oil → lower gas prices → lower inflation → more room for lower rates → stronger consumer confidence. So what could an actual deal look like? My guess 👇 🕊️ Immediate ceasefire 72-hour BS filter. Stop shooting and prove both sides can actually comply. 🚢 Hormuz fully reopened to commercial shipping 🛢️ Iran gets limited oil exports restored 💰 Sanctions relief + frozen assets released in stages ☢️ Iran gives up its nuclear weapons breakout capability 🔍 Strict IAEA inspections with automatic snapback sanctions if they cheat ⚛️ Iran keeps a limited civilian nuclear program so Tehran can say it didn’t surrender its nuclear rights 🚫 Iran stops attacks on U.S. forces, Israel and commercial shipping 🤝 U.S. provides assurances that compliance won’t simply be followed by a regime-change campaign 📈 Broader sanctions relief + foreign investment only after sustained compliance The sequencing matters: 🕊️ Ceasefire → 🚢 Hormuz opens → 🛢️ Oil flows → 🔍 Inspections → ☢️ Nuclear agreement → 💰 Broader sanctions relief Trump gets: 🇺🇸 A non-nuclear Iran 📉 Lower oil + inflation ⛽ Lower gas prices 🏆 A massive foreign-policy win Iran gets: 🇮🇷 Regime survival 🛢️ Oil revenue 💵 Sanctions relief 🏗️ Foreign investment 📈 A path back into the global economy And the rest of us get cheaper energy and a lot less geopolitical risk. Personally, I think the IRGC is awful and I’d love to see a different Iranian government. But that’s exactly why regime change probably CAN’T be a condition of the deal. If Tehran believes compliance ends with them being overthrown anyway, why would they ever give up their leverage? There is a deal here. The question is whether both sides can structure it so they can each walk away claiming victory.

There’s a difference between being early and being wrong. Unfortunately, they look exactly the same for a while. I still believe the thesis on $OPEN is right, but we arrived early. Now management has to produce the evidence that proves it and I believe they will. @MohnishPabrai calls this “premature accumulation.” Even the greats buy too soon. 😆

Hey $OPEN fam: spend five minutes pretending you’re a customer. I went through Opendoor’s website yesterday. Three things stood out: - “Buy with Opendoor” puts the price, estimated monthly payment and expected closing date in one clear box. - This listing offers up to $10,000 toward a mortgage rate buydown when financing through Opendoor Home Loans. A great offer - Clicking “Buy this home” took me into sign-in/account creation. That third piece is what has me thinking about 2027. Someone considering a home today might buy months from now. Capturing that relationship gives Opendoor a chance to bring them back for the home, mortgage and closing. But this is the product work I want to see as a shareholder. Much better than it was in the past. Everyone should try it for themselves

The fastest $OPEN cohorts have historically been spring cohorts: Apr. 26: 30.8% sold by day 30 Mar. 29: 30.2% Now look at August: Aug. 9: 30.3% Aug. 16: already 30.0% with 7 days left That matters. Spring is supposed to be the easy selling season. If @nejatian and the team are matching or beating spring sell-through in August, the operating model is improving faster than the stock price suggests. Right now $OPEN is trading like an interest rate bet. The business is starting to look like something else. Just ask @mikealfred

🔮 This is certainly wishful thinking but I’m going out on a limb and predicting potentially a major Iran solution, possibly before the midterms. Not because everyone suddenly becomes friends, but because the incentives heading into November may simply be too big to ignore. Trump wants: • The war over • Hormuz reopened • A non-nuclear Iran • Lower oil and gasoline prices • Lower inflation • A foreign-policy win before November • Less Chinese/Russian influence in the Middle East Iran wants: • Sanctions relief • Oil exports restored • A stable currency • Foreign investment • Jobs and infrastructure • A path out of an increasingly brutal economic situation The rest of the world wants: • More oil and gas supply • Lower energy prices • Secure shipping through Hormuz • Less geopolitical risk The nuclear issue will obviously be the hardest part, but it also has to be central to any real agreement. So what could a genuine win/win deal look like? Let’s look at what Trump just did in Venezuela, then MAGNIFY it. Iran agrees to strict nuclear restrictions, guarantees safe passage through Hormuz and ends attacks on U.S. interests. In return, the West gradually normalizes Iran economically. But instead of simply lifting sanctions and hoping for the best, tie normalization to a massive private-sector development program. Iran has enormous: 🛢️ Oil 🔥 Natural gas ⛏️ Copper, iron, zinc and other minerals ⚡ Energy infrastructure needs 💧 Water infrastructure needs 🚆 Rail, port and logistics opportunities 🏭 Manufacturing potential To put it into perspective, Iran has more oil and gas than Qatar but Qatar GDP/capita is abt 20x Iran’s. Imagine $500B+ of private investment over the next decade. Iran keeps ownership of its natural resources. Western and Gulf companies provide capital, technology and expertise under long-term contracts that give investors attractive returns for taking the development risk. Iran receives royalties, taxes, jobs and infrastructure, while an increasing share of the long-term economics flows back to Iran once investors have recovered their capital and earned an agreed return. Political-risk guarantees protect private investors if Iran breaks the agreement. Compliance unlocks more investment. Violation brings sanctions back. The potential flywheel is enormous: Foreign investment → more production → more exports → more hard currency → stronger rial → lower inflation → higher purchasing power → more investment and growth. For ordinary Iranians, that could be dramatically better than another decade of sanctions, inflation and war. For the U.S., you potentially get: Lower oil prices Lower inflation A safer Middle East Reduced military commitments More diversified critical-resource supply And Iran pulled economically away from China and Russia The genius of the structure is that the U.S. taxpayer doesn’t need to write Iran a $500B check. Private capital funds the development. Iran contributes the resources and the opportunity. Everyone makes money if it works. That’s why I think the ultimate solution to Iran may look much less like a traditional peace treaty and much more like the largest development and economic normalization agreement in decades. Trump gets to say: “We ended the war, lowered energy prices, opened hundreds of billions of dollars of business to American companies, weakened China and Russia, and gave Iran a reason to remain peaceful.” Iran gets to say: “We ended the war, preserved ownership of our resources and brought hundreds of billions of dollars of investment into rebuilding the Iranian economy.” Both sides get to present it as a win. And the interesting part is that it genuinely could be one. For the Iranian people. For the U.S. And for virtually every country that wants cheaper energy and less geopolitical risk. That would be a hell of a deal. And if you can package this with required “real” democratic elections in Iran - it’s incredible

Nike down 80% and getting booted from the S&P 500. Lululemon board: “We need some of that magic over here!” So naturally, $LULU hires a Nike executive to fix things. 😆 I’m genuinely hoping she crushes it. If she turns this around, it’ll be one hell of a career accomplishment. That said, Chip Wilson is probably still sitting there like: 😐

I spent some time trying to think through the logical end state of everything $OPEN has been building across 1P, 2P, 3P, AI, mortgage and transaction infrastructure. My conclusion: the really interesting end product will not be iBuying at all. I think it could eventually become an AI-powered operating system for homeownership. I wrote out exactly what I mean below. @nejatian - you’ve weighed in on some of my Opendoor theories before. I’d be especially curious what I’m getting right here, what I’m completely wrong about, and what I’m missing.

$OPEN may already be operating at ANI breakeven volume If you want to understand how close OPEN may be to ANI breakeven, look at the chart down below. I’m using: • reported company sales through Q2 • @Aubermark estimates for Jul-Sep • a normalized 5% contribution margin, not Q2’s 5.8%. I wanted to be conservative. At 5%, I estimate OPEN needs roughly 47 homes sold/day to reach ANI breakeven. @Aubermark’s current run-rate is basically there. And this is happening in a LOUSY housing market and before mortgages were launched. That matters. If @nejatian and the team can get OPEN to ANI breakeven before housing improves, then lower rates + higher transaction volume + mortgage + 3P marketplace all become upside. Huge credit to @Aubermark for building the tracker and to @scottfelsenthal for encouraging me to share my thoughts.