In recent weeks, the number of price cuts has been declining (week x week). The absolute value of price cuts has dropped by roughly 40–50%, and the number of units with price cuts has decreased by around 20%. Last week wasn’t great in terms of delistings, the trend has fallen compared to September.
It was something that could happen, maintaining that level of momentum is difficult in a quarter that is seasonally weak for the sector.
However, for now, the potential Q4 revenue remains above $1.2B, a milestone not reached since 2022. It could end up being the strongest Q4 in the company’s history under the current macro environment.
The number of homes currently above 160 days is around 310, of which about 50 are from before I started tracking. This figure has increased from the 150–160 range seen a few months ago.
Still, without the specific context of each home, we can’t determine the real impact on CM, since new products like Own or CNML may be reducing the temporal risk of the inventory.
On the other hand, the percentage of tracked homes exceeding 120 days is around 16–17%, and many of those end up rotating before reaching 160 days.
Auber retweeted
we made a fun little tool to make it easy to check your home value on opendoor at any time.
opendoor.com/home-value-esti…
Auber retweeted
Outside Opendoor, mortgage rates are above 7% for 30 year fixed loans. On select Opendoor homes, you can now get 4.99% on a 5/6 ARM (APR 5.849%).
We own the homes. We offer the mortgage. So we pay to bring the rate down to help families keep moving.
All mortgage services from Opendoor are provided by Opendoor Home Loans LLC; Company NMLS ID #2810193; 1295 West Washington Street, Suite 115, Tempe, AZ 85288; (480) 618-6760. Qualified buyers. Terms: opendoor.com/drop
4.99% on a 5/6 ARM on select Opendoor homes for qualified buyers (APR 5.849%). Find them on Opendoor Drops, a new set of homes every Thursday.
🔹 See the rate and estimated payment on each home
🔹 Open the listing or start preapproval in one place
🔹 Each drop runs for one week only
See the drop: opendoor.com/drop
All mortgage services from Opendoor are provided by Opendoor Home Loans LLC; Company NMLS ID #2810193 (nmlsconsumeraccess.org); 1295 West Washington Street, Suite 115, Tempe, AZ 85288; (480) 618-6760. Qualified buyers. Terms: opendoor.com/drop
#Opendoor #HomeBuying
Opendoor had been looking for a Head of Mortgage Ops. for months, looks like they finally found one👀
We’ve already adapted to Opendoor’s new API (Zeus), and it looks much cleaner than the previous one. A few weeks ago, the Q4 forecast based on the sales pace was 1.4–1.6B (3,500–4,000 units sold), and that forecast still holds despite the high mortgage rates.
The market continues to value Opendoor based on the 10‑year bond and mortgage rates, yet the business isn’t slowing down in a quarter that should theoretically be weak due to seasonality. There are 2 operational months left to finish Q4 track and 1 month until the Q3 earnings.
Keep in mind that even if the number of units sold ends up within that range, revenue could come in slightly lower due to concessions on listing prices.
However, the tracker will maintain the listing price from the moment the home is delisted.
Gotta say, I'm really liking how the Drops page is shaping up. It's also a quick and easy way to see where Opendoor is currently licensed and offering mortgages. Love that the map nodes don't just pop in out of nowhere. They stay put and load in as you get closer.
Really smart call, makes the whole thing feel way smoother. Great work, @opendoor team 👏
Auber retweeted
We’re building out the founding team for Opendoor Toronto.
If you work in engineering, data, ML, or infosec, come meet us on October 7. We’d love to hear what you’re working on. RSVP here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F…
I like that simplified topbar menus. Maybe in the user Dashboard you could add a direct reference to the Help Center or to articles the user might be interested in.
On the other hand, on the map there’s one thing I miss on the listings map: homes I’ve already opened don’t get marked in any way. When a search returns a lot of homes, it’s hard to keep track of which ones I’ve already looked at, especially since house hunting usually happens across several sessions over weeks.
A simple visual state on the price badge for visited homes (a muted color, for example) would make it easy to see at a glance what’s new and keep exploring homes I haven’t seen yet. Combined with the existing favorites, it would give three clear states: seen, unseen, and saved.
@morganb
I noticed that on the homepage hero, the thin white text ("Get a cash offer and explore the ways we can help you sell your home." and "Takes 5 minutes | Your information stays private") gets hard to read where it sits over the lighter areas of the photo, especially the windows and curtains.
I tested a small CSS change: a soft, localized radial shadow behind that block, using the same
#292011 tone as your existing gradients, plus a subtle text-shadow. It improves legibility without darkening the photo, and the "Get an offer" button stays the focal point. It's a subtle change, but I think the privacy line matters.
Before/after screenshots.
@morganb @fahdananta
New chart in the Data Explorer: the same table data, with an 8‑cohort weighted moving average (sold ÷ listed, not an average of percentages).
The 7‑day window moves much more than the rest and shows a sustained decline since late May. The 30, 60, and 90‑day windows remain flat over the same period, which suggests that the homes that stopped selling in the first week are still selling within the month.
With one important caveat: the longer windows lag by construction, a cohort needs a full 90 days to appear in that column. The 90‑day window only reaches the June 21 cohort, and the 60‑day window only reaches the July 19 cohort, so they still don’t cover August.
The fact that they’re flat indicates that up to July, the early‑stage deterioration didn’t carry into the mid‑term, what happened in August (in long term) will show up in October.
Super early data, only a couple of days have passed in the operational calendar for Q4.
However, if the current trend continues, we’d be looking at around 3,500–4,000 sales for Q4, which would translate into roughly $1.4–1.6B in revenue.
Even so, I have doubts about whether this trend can hold given how rates are rising, plus Q4 is historically one of the weakest quarters of the year. Revenue could also come in lower than that estimate if they decide to rotate faster at the expense of CM, just like what will happen in Q3.
These estimates would imply a +50% YoY revenue increase and would be the best Q4 revenue the company has had since 2022.
For context, historically the company’s Q4 revenue in recent years has almost never surpassed the $1B mark.
Objectively, the company is in a better selling trend than any previous quarter with a similar macro backdrop. The critical question will be at what CM, we’ll see that in the company’s projections and in February.
Q4 CM has tended to be around 3% in recent years, except last year when it was 1%. If they manage to keep Q4 CM at ~3% and raise CM in Q1/Q2 2027 to 5–6%, the projected annual average based on the trend could land around 4–5%.
If volume increases, that’s not a bad number given the current housing context in the U.S.
Even so, keep in mind that these estimates are based on trends and very early data, time needs to confirm them.
Auber retweeted
There has been a lot of speculation lately about where Opendoor is on the path to ANI break-even, and I worry some folks think we are further ahead than we actually are. Rather than have you guess, I want to do two things. First, give you a direct update on how Q3 is tracking, and second, start releasing numbers more frequently so you can track our progress for yourself and hold us accountable.
To say the thing up front: we are not at ANI break-even yet. What we are seeing in the actual numbers of the business this week, the speed of underwriting, the accuracy of our models, the response from our users and the forward revenue created are all going very well. We’re making lots of progress, but rebuilds are bumpy.
TL;DR: The worsening housing market at the end of August pushed us roughly six to eight weeks behind on our Adjusted EBITDA guideposts, meaning the twelve-month window in which we expect to be adjusted EBITDA profitable now starts this quarter rather than last quarter. For Q3, we expect revenue to increase 10-15% year over year, Contribution Profit dollars to increase 70-75% year over year, and Contribution Margin to land between 3.2% and 3.5%. We still expect to exit 2026 ANI-positive on a twelve-month go-forward basis.
On our first earnings call I told you we would make the right long-term decisions for the business, not manage it around a quarterly number. August tested whether we meant it.
For most of its life as a public company, Opendoor sold homes slower than the market. Between our IPO and my start date, we cleared at roughly 85% of market pace and lagged the market two days out of every three. We held on to homes under the belief that waiting protected margins. Holding homes was our own version of bloodletting, the "cure" for weak margins. It did not work, and it made this company fragile.
Over my first year, we changed that. We now clear significantly faster than the market, beating it nearly nine days out of ten. This is our job: clear faster.
When we reported earnings in early August, July contribution margin was tracking ahead of our plans and the housing market looked like it might be stabilizing. Instead, the last two weeks of August were among the worst we have seen for housing in years. Clearance slowed further and delistings stayed high. That is not an excuse - it’s just what happened.
We had a choice. Slow sales, protect the margin number, and let homes age. Or price to clear. Old Opendoor chose the first option for years. It made the quarter look better, but it made the company worse. We are not doing that again. Time has a cost, and selling homes fast is the discipline this business requires. We are going to clear homes, even when that hurts margins.
Our job is to sell homes, not park inventory or pull listings offline when things get tough. The market got worse, but it did not break our resale engine. We are still clearing faster than the market. That is part of the business we rebuilt, and it held. Don’t confuse any of this with the business moving backwards. The business is in materially better condition today. Revenue and contribution margin will both be higher year over year. And as the rest of the rebuild catches up, a market like this will hurt us less going forward.
Nothing longer-term is changing. We expect Opendoor will be ANI-positive on a twelve-month go-forward basis exiting 2026. That depends on buying fast and selling fast. If margins were resetting permanently, that would change things. That is not what is happening. We are repricing one book of inventory and clearing it instead of rolling it into next year.
To help you follow all that we are doing better, both on sales and acquisitions, we are going to give you more to track every week on accountable.opendoor.com. Just as you should not have to wait until earnings to see what is happening on acquisitions, you should not have to wait to see how many homes we sold or how fast we cleared.
Last week, we sold 223 homes, and cleared 19% faster than the market, adjusted for delistings. The weekly numbers will be noisy, just as the acquisition numbers were when we first started publishing them. What matters is the trend: as we buy more homes, are we selling them at the pace we planned and staying ahead of the market or not? And when we are behind, you will see it for yourself.
I told you how we would manage this company: for years, not quarters. Twelve months from now, judge us based on that. Either we fixed the company or not. The core metrics say we are on track. For Q3, year over year, we expect margin to be up. Revenue up. Velocity up. The end of August was absolutely brutal for housing and pushed us back by roughly six to eight weeks. We’re not going to take that sitting down.
Kaz
(fyi, regular disclosures on this type of thing where we release weekly numbers etc are on our IR page, investor.opendoor.com)
Auber retweeted
Opendoor mortgage is out of beta. The most AI pilled mortgage product designed to help average Americans become homeowners. A fair and honest rate. Built to cost less.
opendoor.com/mortgage
We already have projections for Opendoor’s Q3 26. Around ~980M in tracked revenue, which in the adjusted figure gives us about ~1.13B, this is only an approximation.
They could end up in the 1.08–1.15B range since there may still be relistings from the last few weeks. Today we also begin the operational Q4, which as you know has organic displacement due to escrow timelines.
I also think the mortgage product could compress escrows, making the displacement relative to the original calendar smaller. If that’s the case, Q3 could end up with slightly higher revenue than expected, which is why I place the upper range around ~1.15B.
Even the greatest can fall. What sets the best apart is that they're always willing to get back on and go again, and there's a whole body of work behind it that only shows on race day. Get well soon, Poggy 🙏
❌El esloveno Tadej Pogacar abandona la #Vuelta2026 tras su caída a 32 kilómetros de la línea de meta en la etapa 8 con final en Xeraco.
📺Sigue en DIRECTO los últimos kilómetros #VueltaRTVE29a en Teledeporte y @rtveplay
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