Ohio Early Voting Update (Long Post Warning): This is a general update as to where I see the race. I'll give a couple of data points to illustrate where I see issues for both Republicans and Democrats. Short version: Republicans started behind, are picking up the pace, and since the early vote is about a third (or just more) of the total vote, it's going to come down to election day. In the first two images, I've grouped the main 3 Democrat urban areas, the other Harris won counties, and then all Trump won counties of Ohio (2024 election), and then projected their estimated turnout for early voting this year with the previous 2 cycles. One of the things we have seen this year is the decreased in mail but then increase in in person early voting (IPEV). Ohio is not exception to this and you can see from the charts below the changes that have happened this year. Look at the data and see just how crazy the shift is. When you take into account the decrease in mail, then the increase in IPEV, you get a total that basically evens out to Ohio counties voting a little better than 2022 but worse than 2024. This applies everywhere and pretty evenly spread out too! Democrats started off early voting well, while Republicans did worse. It's a story seen in most states. However, since that bad start, Republicans have increased while Democrats have slowed down. The 3rd image shows an estimate on where the final early vote could be this year (subject to change warning here). Now here is the real kicker: To compare the changes of 2026's early vote, this year is about D+13.7% statewide improvement in the early vote compared 2024 BUT this year is actual an improvement for Rs in my modeling by about 1.7% compared to 2022. I am going to give that stat with caution, and it's on my to do list to investigate further (so please take this particular result with a grain of salt for now). But if that's close to accurate than Rs have to like that. Let's go with the worst case scenario for Rs, 2024. So better for Democrats BUT is this better enough to win the state? I ran analysis in ChatGPT (top tier level, if that makes any of us feel better) and it was still convinced of an R win (again: take this with a grain of salt). Here is where the answer will lie: On election day. Stupid simple answer I know, but it's the correct one. The early vote seems like it might be a lower % of the total vote this year so I think it might be less influential. So patterns here don't seem to really make or break things. That's the good news for Republicans. The bad news would be that voters can still change their minds or just not show up. We will find out but for now, the Ohio early vote looks more favorable to Democrats, but not anything too crazy in my opinion. I hope this was helpful, I'll try to give more demographic updates with Ohio specifically in the next few days as there's interesting data there too. If you see any errors please let me know.