Looks like a cold night in Cleveland. 🥶⚾
Small sample size, but I thought this was interesting. In similar conditions at Progressive Field since 2022, scoring and HR production have been down, while walks have actually increased.
#MLB #Guardians #Rays #Basewinner
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BaseWinner retweeted
Batters are 7-for-69 with 32 Ks against Cade Smith in the Postseason.
Batters are 1-for-10 with 6 Ks against him with runners in scoring position.
#GuardsBall | #Postseason
Replying to @JoeyMistretta_
This was a bizarre strategy move to me??? the CLE team must have better metrics than actual 50% game K rate today?? Maybe I’m blinded by the Williams 10+ K bet at +839 that just slipped away
BaseWinner retweeted
Gavin Williams was removed at 70 pitches. Lauren Shehadi reported she asked the Guardians' dugout if he's alright. Answer was yes. Cleveland removing him was reportedly a strategic move as opposed to any kind of injury concern.
Replying to @CScottybooks17
Thanks man glad you enjoy it! I think MLB will play next season based on some of the movement I've seen in the front offices. If not - NBA and Tennis I model. If no bases, may advance it and make that public.
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🛒⚾ Some pretty interesting data from the BWDB on how teams hit in what I call "Costco Parks" (closed-roof/dome stadiums).
So interesting, in fact, that I thought it was worth digging into and writing about, especially with the LCS underway.
Not exactly great for our LAD and CLE positions, but another interesting piece of the handicapping puzzle!
basewinner.com/posts/the-cos…
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🌅⚾ Not a fan of the Dodgers day game — nothing like the sunset in October at Chavez Ravine.
I still like LAD to win today, but this was interesting enough to keep me off the Dodgers team total.
☀️ Before 6 PM AZ time at home this year: .680 OPS in 562 PA. That would rank around 27th compared with MLB overall home numbers. 😬 Woof.
Maybe I’m making too much of it, but that’s why we have the database. 📊
📝 Note: the game counts overlap because some games had PAs on both sides of the 6 PM AZ cutoff.
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Replying to @MKaminskiMusic
would love to see your Top5 walk up music list for this list🎹😀
We rebuilt our October pitching model.
bwERA+ → postseason sxIP → bullpen exposure → team RA/G → series probabilities → 100,000 postseason simulations.
Then we priced the DraftKings postseason board.
A few differences jumped out:
CLE over CWS series
BW: 64.97% / -185 fair
DK: -140
NYY over TB series
BW: 58.71% / -142 fair
DK: -120
LAD World Series
BW: 39.36% / +154 fair
DK: +200
We can even price exact LCS outcomes now.
The final probabilities look clean. Building everything behind them definitely isn't.
Full breakdown 👇
basewinner.com/posts/we-rebu…
Replying to @DarealK4nier @VSiNLive @beatingthebook @KelleyBydlon @joe_sheehan @jhahn4 @whale_capper
Maybe there is a chance and thanks for sharing that
Mentioned this on the show today. With NBC back in the MLB postseason mix, I'm officially requesting the return of the classic NBC Game of the Week theme.
Absolute classic. ⚾🔥
Here's a trip back to the 1983 playoffs:
youtube.com/watch?v=W0qzJRx8…
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Replying to @CorbieBO @GetBettorOdds
This is a great post Corbie! I can cherry pick the West Coast Tv games if i want to make a play as a casual CFF bettor. Thanks for sharing
Replying to @RyanHyattMedia @beatingthebook
Interesting- i do see somewhat of a resemblance brings up a ? - if Drew is curious as to what Gill thinks of his play, does he ask Gill "do you feel like I do?"🎸
Replying to @jaredsmithbets
Jared - that is impressive man! you may want to check out Masters Track and Field - you probably would be good at the sprints I've been doing it for 15+ years and is rewarding













