Looks like a cold night in Cleveland. 🥶⚾ Small sample size, but I thought this was interesting. In similar conditions at Progressive Field since 2022, scoring and HR production have been down, while walks have actually increased. #MLB #Guardians #Rays #Basewinner

🛒⚾ Some pretty interesting data from the BWDB on how teams hit in what I call "Costco Parks" (closed-roof/dome stadiums). So interesting, in fact, that I thought it was worth digging into and writing about, especially with the LCS underway. Not exactly great for our LAD and CLE positions, but another interesting piece of the handicapping puzzle! basewinner.com/posts/the-cos… #Dodgers #Guardians #MLBPlayoffs #Basewinner

🌅⚾ Not a fan of the Dodgers day game — nothing like the sunset in October at Chavez Ravine. I still like LAD to win today, but this was interesting enough to keep me off the Dodgers team total. ☀️ Before 6 PM AZ time at home this year: .680 OPS in 562 PA. That would rank around 27th compared with MLB overall home numbers. 😬 Woof. Maybe I’m making too much of it, but that’s why we have the database. 📊 📝 Note: the game counts overlap because some games had PAs on both sides of the 6 PM AZ cutoff. #Dodgers #MLBPlayoffs

We rebuilt our October pitching model. bwERA+ → postseason sxIP → bullpen exposure → team RA/G → series probabilities → 100,000 postseason simulations. Then we priced the DraftKings postseason board. A few differences jumped out: CLE over CWS series BW: 64.97% / -185 fair DK: -140 NYY over TB series BW: 58.71% / -142 fair DK: -120 LAD World Series BW: 39.36% / +154 fair DK: +200 We can even price exact LCS outcomes now. The final probabilities look clean. Building everything behind them definitely isn't. Full breakdown 👇 basewinner.com/posts/we-rebu…

Come on Phillies fans - Let's get some "Jesus Saves" signs. A save situation may not happen though? the way Phillies lineup of late, may need actual Jesus to hit.

I'm up for that!

🏁⚾ FINAL WEEKEND: August Most Wins On Aug. 1, the Basewinner simulation made PHI its #1 team: ⭐ 22.5% probability 📊 +344 BW fair 💰 +1100 market Now: PHI 78.0% 🔥 🌵 AL West: HOU 45.5% / SEA 27.0% / TEX 24.6% 🏆 AL Central: KCR 66.4% / CLE 21.5% / CWS 12.1% ⏳ Four days. Let’s see how it finishes. Built Models. Real Edges. basewinner.com/posts/august-…

⚾ What a difference six days makes. On Aug. 15, the Phillies were just 10.5% to win the August MLB Most Wins race. Today: 52.5% 📈 Before August, PHI was our favorite play at +1100. The coolest part? The new Basewinner Simulation Center lets us rewind the model and see exactly how the race changed: 🎯 22.5% → 10.5% → 52.5% Same model. Same process. New information. 🔬 August MLB Most Wins: Six Days That Flipped the Simulation basewinner.com/posts/august-…