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Washington DC
Joined August 2011
Imagine thinking that greens fees are going to be $70 after Trump's "professionals" get done with it
Imagine eliminating a public park area used by tens of thousands of runners, walkers and picnickers to spend millions of dollars to build a "world-class" golf course that no one seems to want except a president who has publicly demeaned a judge and defied court orders to do so.
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BankSynthesis retweeted
East Potomac was never supposed to be a "championship course". That was the whole point. When it opened in 1921, golf in America was a rich man’s game, private clubs, high dues, closed doors. East Potomac was built to be the opposite: a muni course anyone could walk onto and play, designed by Walter Travis to challenge experts and welcome beginners on the same eighteen holes. That wasn’t an accident. It was the mission. A championship course built to chase the U.S. Open and the Ryder Cup isn’t a renovation of that mission. It’s a reversal of it. It takes a course built to open golf up to everyone and turns it into the exact kind of exclusive showcase East Potomac was created to stand against. Congress didn’t dedicate this land “for the recreation and pleasure of the people” so it could eventually become a luxury product. The irony isn’t incidental. It’s the whole fight.
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BankSynthesis retweeted
These people know no bounds.
News: The Trump administration filed a motion to disqualify Judge Anna Reyes from the East Potomac Golf Course case saying she “cannot serve as an impartial arbiter of the case.” Cites her yelling at government attorneys at this week’s hearing and they request that she release the audio of that hearing.
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intelligence != power
Citigroup now bars third-party AI agents from logging into customer accounts or moving money inside its digital banking platforms, according to the Financial Times. Bank of America has imposed similar limits, joining JPMorgan Chase, which is restricting outside AI agents after Jamie Dimon warned that thousands of “rogue agents” could otherwise operate inside the bank. The deeper threat is to bank funding, since agents comparing rates could move cash from checking accounts paying about 0.1% into fintech accounts paying 3.3% to 5%. JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo hold $1.6T in non-interest deposits, and paying 3% on that money would cost $47B a year, close to half their combined annual earnings.
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BankSynthesis retweeted
Goldman Momo basket just turned negative on the year. Was up 70% in late June, just before Chinese open weight models flooded AI
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The macro repricing of energy is now underway. Check out today's move in long dated oil - that's calendar 2027 WTI. When long dated oil moves this strongly in tandem with energy equities making new ATHs, financial markets need to listen. This is not a transient spike in prompt oil. It's far more structural. Get long, buckle your seat belt, and hang on for the ride.
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#Brean: "Import prices surge 8.1% year-over-year in September with oil and tech accounting for over half the gain; manufactured output rises..." – at Estero, FL
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BankSynthesis retweeted
people are starting to realize. there *are* no moats left. the only true moat in existence was intelligence, and now that's out of the equation.
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BankSynthesis retweeted
The Fed has failed spectacularly at its most important mandate: price stability. Since January 2020, consumer prices in the US have risen at a 4% annualized rate, DOUBLE the Fed's 2% target. The CPI is now 14% above where it would be if the Fed had actually done its job.
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BankSynthesis retweeted
New: Accenture has told employees it will only fund $29 per month of Claude use. Meaning that employees who often spend as much as $1,000 a month are now scrambling to find ways to keep access to the tool. A sign of the continuing crack down of AI 404media.co/accenture-tells-…
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BankSynthesis retweeted
Why is the overall market so fixated on $CRWV's imminent demise? At the peak of the Dot Com bubble, $CSCO - the largest company in the world, and the $NVDA equivalent of the era - generated about 10% of its revenue from circular deals through vendor-financed startups. When those startups lost access to capital, $CSCO's revenue growth went from +66% to -30% within a few quarters, and the stock lost 80% of its value. The same story played out across the dot com supply chain, sending the Nasdaq down 80%. Today, $CRWV alone makes up roughly 8% of $NVDA GPU sales. Losing that demand is enough to nuke $NVDA's growth story all by itself. Oh, and $CRWV isn't an isolated example - every major neocloud is hemmoraghing cash and borrowing costs are going UP across the board. If you lose the neoclouds, you lose the incremental growth driver for marginal data center capacity, and the AI capex trade goes up in smoke. That's why we're seeing carnage across the entire AI supply chain, from $CAT and $GEV to $MU, $AVGO and more recently $NVDA. This is what the beginning of the end of a debt-fueled, circular-financed capex bubble looks like.
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Deutsche Bank: "CoreWeave no doubt will need additional capital to fund existing backlog over the next 12-18 months," with NTM operating cash flow of ~$10 billion against required capex of $45 billion. That is a $35 billion funding gap: if even half of it had to be raised at the ~15% where CoreWeave's unsecured bonds now trade, the extra interest bill would be roughly $2.6 billion a year, more than the entire $2.1 billion loss analysts expect CoreWeave to post this year. Or it could just sell more stock
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BankSynthesis retweeted
Mmmmm… Firmus is more like New Century (nobody cares), CRWV is Countrywide (no idea who buys that turd, OWL is BSC, JEF is Lehman, and ORCL is AIG Although to be clear, the lesson from ’08 is never again - damn the moral hazard and loss socialization - so JEF will get thrown to Jamie, and Ellison will get the favor repaid from Elon (remember larry saved him with the 3mm shares/$1bn in 2018) along with a nice Trump injection ala GM/Ford 2008. Cuz you know, we’re on an AI war footing and all and it’a existential that we win (ie that larry remains a billionaire). Turducken … history gotta rhyme
Replying to @PauloMacro
if this is 07, Firmus is the 2 BSC credit funds, maybe CRWV is BSC or Countrywide, leaving ORCL as LEH?
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BankSynthesis retweeted
Remarkable admission from CoreWeave co-founder that life insurers (i.e., private credit) is this bubble's dumbest money. As noted exactly a year ago, insurers will be this generation's "widows and orphans" after the wipeout
Insurers will be this generation's "widows and orphans": private credit represents 35% of total US insurers' investments
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BankSynthesis retweeted
🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩 red flag if there was one… a CEO saying market is wrong can only mean one thing…
$CRWV - *COREWEAVE CEO BLAMES SHARE DROP ON MARKET ACTING 'IRRATIONALLY'
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I recognize Canva when I see it
…did the OCC fire all its graphic designers?
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BankSynthesis retweeted
This is like when New Century blew up and everyone said “subprime is contained”
If the Firmus IPO exposed anything it was that there was no new money left to buy. Literally all insiders wanted to sell. Not saying this is the end of the bubble but this is always how bubbles end - the market realizes there is no incremental buyer…
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A recession is coming. Get ready.
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