
Geopolitics of AI | International Security | Foreign Policy. @MIGSinstitute @MLInstitute @CU_NPSIA @Pendulumgroupca @superforecaster @statecraftOrg
Canada
Joined October 2009
- Tweets265
- Following2.4K
- Followers3.3K
- Likes33.8K
Pinned Tweet
When I taught geopolitics of AI this year (twice!) at @CU_NPSIA the classes were oversubscribed in both cases so I am offering a two-day (online) workshop on the geopolitics of AI through NPSIA-PT&D on February 4 and 5 (registration link in the next post).
What are the geopolitical implications of AI? How AI capabilities translate into geopolitical leverage and vulnerability? What are the national-security implications of transformative AI (including AGI and ASI), including cyber risks, military adoption, loss of control, power concentration, and international crisis instability? These and more are some of the questions we'll cover in the workshop.
If you are interested please do go ahead and register and share this with those who might be interested in understanding the geopolitical implications of this truly transformative technology.
Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions.
Balkan Devlen retweeted
I wrote about the exponential curve of the last 30 months of AI development: oneusefulthing.org/p/30-mont…
And I asked Opus 5.5 to create the ultimate response to the test I use for all AI image generation models (make a picture of "an otter on a plane using wifi"), it made this video
Balkan Devlen retweeted
When you have unofficial public policy positions that housing prices are never allowed to go down and seniors’ entitlements are never allowed to be reformed you’re basically just buying time until the whole thing goes up in flames.
Balkan Devlen retweeted
By not supporting export controls, OpenAI is sacrificing America's interests, safety efforts, efforts to pace the frontier and also the direct interests of OpenAI.
The winners are China and Nvidia.
If I was at OpenAI I would be asking very hard questions about this.
OpenAI has pulled back from supporting AI chip controls, seemingly to appease Nvidia.
Bad for US AI dominance and national security simultaneously.
Grow a spine!
politico.com/news/2026/10/20…
Balkan Devlen retweeted
Concerning.
Arguably what OAI does on this policy front is more important than any of their near-term product launch decisions in terms of US competitiveness, so I hope staff are asking about what the deal is here... xitter.cf/hamandcheese/status/21…
OpenAI has pulled back from supporting AI chip controls, seemingly to appease Nvidia.
Bad for US AI dominance and national security simultaneously.
Grow a spine!
politico.com/news/2026/10/20…
Balkan Devlen retweeted
🚨New paper (possibly the most important one I have written yet).
We think that as early as 2027 or 2028, there might be a major AI-enabled terrorism event. We conducted a pre-mortem, made 9 falsifiable predictions, and wrote 2 concrete scenarios.
Led by @KamacheeMax.
💯👇
"There’s a special circle of hell for people like Mendel and Havrushko — Dante put traitors in the Ninth, the lowest and most brutal — because treachery is a violation of one of the most fundamental bonds of society."
The two traitorous harpies @IuliiaMendel and @HavryshkoMarta have been endlessly pushing videos of forced mobilization in Ukraine (as if everyone who gets drafted in any country is a willing participant and as if this somehow demonstrates that Ukrainians do not want to fight), and now the draft-dodging surrender monkey in the White House has weaponized them — likely Mendel since he referred to watching “a woman on television the other night” and she has been making the rounds with video interviews with the likes of Tucker Carlson — to deny vital defense capabilities to the Ukrainians, including early warning intelligence about ballistics, interceptors for air defenses, and throttling Starlink speeds, which disables the drone operations on which Ukraine relies, all while making deals with the Kremlin for gas and lifting sanctions.
These two have finally achieved what their black hearts so fervently desired: the Ukrainian cities are reeling under the intense Russian assault, and the number of civilian casualties has drastically escalated.
There’s a special circle of hell for people like Mendel and Havrushko — Dante put traitors in the Ninth, the lowest and most brutal — because treachery is a violation of one of the most fundamental bonds of society.
Balkan Devlen retweeted
Ukraine is being asked to abandon its sovereignty and territorial integrity so that two great powers can more easily help each other overcome the consequences of aggressive wars they should never have started.
And yet we’re still debating the “irresponsibility” of smaller powers
Balkan Devlen retweeted
Just finished @OAJonsson’s superb new book 'The Russian General Staff' (review forthcoming in @SurvivalEditors). Among many insights on Russian military culture, this one stuck with me:
“Russian wars often follow a pattern in which worst-case scenarios drive decision-making, but planning is characterized by best-case assumptions."
Balkan Devlen retweeted
Another framing here is that total AI spending in 2026 is in high hundreds of billions to 1T+, depending on how you count.
So AI safety spending is about 0.1%-0.2% of AI spending, which is too low even if you think of AI as an ordinary technology (it's not).
I think people adjacent to the field don't appreciate how small AI safety is. For example, sometimes people complain about how AI safety threat models don't seem as well-developed or rigorous as climate change models. I think some of this is a skill issue on the part of AI safety researchers and advocates, which I complained about elsewhere (see reply).
However, by far the bigger issue is that there is just way more money and people going into addressing climate change than on AI safety.
There are tens of millions of people working on reducing climate change, and the core of people working on threat models ("climate scientists") number in the tens of thousands. (Yes, I was surprised by how big the numbers were too).
(Most people work on stuff like clean energy).
In comparison, there are low single-digit thousands (anything from 1,000 to 4,000 is defensible imo) of people working on AI safety, and collectively maybe low dozens of people working on figuring out threat models. (Most people work on ai safety engineering, some on policy).
So we're 4 whole orders of magnitude behind climate change in people working on addressing the issue, and maybe 3 orders of magnitude behind on threat modeling.
In terms of money, yearly spending on AI safety is in the high hundreds of millions to maybe 2 billion. In contrast, annual spending on reducing climate change (including clean energy) is in *trillions.*
So we're 3-3.5 orders of magnitude behind on spending, and 4 ooms behind on people.
The AI safety inputs picture looks a bit less bleak than this immediate comparison might suggest. For example, I think our average talent pool is somewhat higher human capital. There's also more latent interest/willingness-to-spend on AI safety than the "high hundreds of millions to low billions" current spending numbers might suggest. In contrast, climate change spending can't be scaled much higher (since you can't really jump OOMs above "trillions").
Here it is carleton.ca/npsia-ptd/geopol…
Balkan Devlen retweeted
The Insider affirme que 24 députés européens agiraient pour l'intérêt de la Russie, et contre les intérêts européens. L’enquête documente leurs rencontres avec des officiels russes, parfois issus du FSB ou de réseaux d’influence, ainsi que leur rôle dans la diffusion des narratifs prorusses et anti-européens.
Par exemple :
- Le Slovaque Ľuboš Blaha a rencontré en 2025 Sergueï Narychkine, chef du renseignement extérieur russe ; ce voyage n’apparaissait pas sur le site du Parlement européen, alors qu'il aurait dû le déclarer.
- Le Français Thierry Mariani, relais régulier de la propagande russe, est liée à l’association "Dialogue franco-russe" et avec les oligarques Konstantin Malofeev, Iskander Makhmudov et Andreï Bokarev ; des investigations ont d'ailleurs visé ses activités suspectes.
L’article distingue évidemment les élus ouvertement prorusses, des dizaines d’autres eurodéputés ayant voyagé en Russie depuis 2014 pour des raisons professionnelles, politiques ou familiales.
theins.press/en/inv/298273
Balkan Devlen retweeted
I think people adjacent to the field don't appreciate how small AI safety is. For example, sometimes people complain about how AI safety threat models don't seem as well-developed or rigorous as climate change models. I think some of this is a skill issue on the part of AI safety researchers and advocates, which I complained about elsewhere (see reply).
However, by far the bigger issue is that there is just way more money and people going into addressing climate change than on AI safety.
There are tens of millions of people working on reducing climate change, and the core of people working on threat models ("climate scientists") number in the tens of thousands. (Yes, I was surprised by how big the numbers were too).
(Most people work on stuff like clean energy).
In comparison, there are low single-digit thousands (anything from 1,000 to 4,000 is defensible imo) of people working on AI safety, and collectively maybe low dozens of people working on figuring out threat models. (Most people work on ai safety engineering, some on policy).
So we're 4 whole orders of magnitude behind climate change in people working on addressing the issue, and maybe 3 orders of magnitude behind on threat modeling.
In terms of money, yearly spending on AI safety is in the high hundreds of millions to maybe 2 billion. In contrast, annual spending on reducing climate change (including clean energy) is in *trillions.*
So we're 3-3.5 orders of magnitude behind on spending, and 4 ooms behind on people.
The AI safety inputs picture looks a bit less bleak than this immediate comparison might suggest. For example, I think our average talent pool is somewhat higher human capital. There's also more latent interest/willingness-to-spend on AI safety than the "high hundreds of millions to low billions" current spending numbers might suggest. In contrast, climate change spending can't be scaled much higher (since you can't really jump OOMs above "trillions").
Balkan Devlen retweeted
Since the far left is setting Europe on fire, maybe you've missed the fact that Serbia's Interior Minister, Ivica Dačić, spent the weekend reporting in person to his bosses in Moscow. He was stuck there for a while because Ukrainian drones had shut down most of the airports. He comes from Milošević's party, the successor to Yugoslavia's Communist Party, and is an ally of Vučić.
Balkan Devlen retweeted
Why does this keep happening
It is a strange world.
Because 5.7 million people live in three small Baltic countries (whose total size is less than a Chinese Tier II city). and whose half of the population lives in Europe, and another third are Russians who cannot get citizenship, and because they have traumas and bad memories of the Soviet rule, the entire world of 8 billion people should go into a nuclear apocalypse and die.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The Baltic countries lie entirely in Europe. Non-citizens comprise ~9% of Latvia's population, ~4-5% of Estonia's and near zero in Lithuania—not one third—while ethnic Russians total ~14% overall (most with citizenship).
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_st…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_…
stat.gov.lv/en/shrt/RIR2602
worldometers.info/population/cou…
Oh poor you...genocide-loving ghoul.
Balkan Devlen retweeted
The legitimate applications of this technology are dwarfed by its potential for abuse. We're talking about an extraordinarily powerful surveillance capability primarily useful for espionage, criminal activity, and the state's exercise of coercive force.

























