Football analytics stuff. Mathematician.

Joined September 2013
It's been a while and I think there are still plenty of people out there looking to get started with coding, so here it is: Introduction to Football Analytics in R. I'm running it again, starting from Monday 15th of January. More info here: sites.google.com/view/jpquin…
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How devastating
Trump: If Democrats win, “You’re going to be thrown into a system where everyone gets healthcare.”
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In 2016, the funding of Manchester City owner Sheikh Mansour's 482ft superyacht, the Topaz, saw him named as one of the "co-conspirators" in a $4.5 billion scandal a U.S. judge called “one of the biggest financial crimes in the history of the world”. In the international fallout, IPIC, the $70 billion sovereign wealth fund Mansour operated, was wound up, and a claim made in court that “the sheikh would not get out of bed for less than $100m” caused intense embarrassment. Now, a decade on from what would become known as the 1MDB scandal, Mansour faces another reckoning. 📝 @jwhitey98 🔗 nyti.ms/4it5O3t
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Given the recent accusations of cheating aimed at a certain Premier League club, I'm surprised that this story from 2019 has gone under the radar👇
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“Hello and welcome to Newsnight. Tonight, we’re joined by Faiza Shaheen, director of Tax Justice UK. Faiza is an economist and a Visiting Professor of Practice at the London School of Economics. Faiza’s previous roles include Program Head for the Inequality and Exclusion Grand Challenge of the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies at the Center on International Cooperation at New York University, Director of the Centre for Labour and Social Studies, Head of Inequality and Sustainable Development at Save the Children, and Senior Researcher at the New Economics Foundation. Faiza holds a PhD and MSc from the University of Manchester and a BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from St John’s College, Oxford University. She is the author of a range of materials and publications covering the most salient social and economic debates of our times, including inequality, austerity, immigration, and social mobility. Faiza has over 15 years of experience researching the trends and consequences of inequality, as well as designing policies and campaigns to address the causes of inequality and exclusion. Her book, ‘Know your place: How society sets us up to fail and what we can do about it’ was published in July 2023 by Simon & Schuster. To speak over her, we’ve invited Winston Marshall, a podcaster and former member of Mumford and Sons. We hope you enjoy the programme.”
"If you want to lift up the poor, you have to create wealth." "How's that going?" Podcaster and former Mumford & Sons member Winston Marshall discusses taxes with economist and Green Party supporter Faiza Shaheen. #Newsnight
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I'm sure this podcaster, former musician, and son of a millionaire has some valuable insight to add to the economist sat next to him in this conversation about economics.
"If you want to lift up the poor, you have to create wealth." "How's that going?" Podcaster and former Mumford & Sons member Winston Marshall discusses taxes with economist and Green Party supporter Faiza Shaheen. #Newsnight
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The irony
Replying to @AdamSalkie
It’s wishful thinking. They believe what they want to believe, because they desperately want it to be true.
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This sort of punishment would be far more significant than relegation for City. I think they'd recover quite quickly from a year outside the Premier League and a big financial penalty. Not sure the owners would even stick around without Champions League football for that long.
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JP Quinn retweeted
I work in a nursing home and this is the type of test we give to determine how advanced somebody's dementia is
Trump on Cognitive Test: They give you 5 words: Hat Hair Logo Right Black. I repeated them later. They said, “holy shit.” Almost no one can do it. But I can because I’m a freaking genius.
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That is outrageous
Gol absurdo no futebol feminino mexicano. Nunca tinha visto um gol assim.
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Jason Selvig: “Do you feel like your life is better than a year and a half ago?” Trump supporter: “I do, yes”

JS: “In what way?” TS: “Uhm, there’s more things being done. Uhm. Changing a lot of stuff that Biden had messed up” JS: “Like what?” TS: “Uhm, just a little, I can’t name a lot of stuff, but yeah haha”

JS: “What’s one thing that he’s changed that you’re really excited about?” TS: “Uhm. I’m trying to think exactly what… gas prices definitely, yes” JS: “Gas prices have changed, but they’re a little higher now than they were” TS: “Yeah, hopefully they start going down more”
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Short answer: They knew very well they were cheating, did it anyway and then denied it, fought it, and continue to deny it.
I watched the F1 film with Brad Pitt the other day, and there’s a moment where his character asks to add something to the car that isn’t really in the rules. The FIA punishes it, but the team can still race with the earlier car. It made me think. In F1, the best teams live at the edge of the regulations. Sometimes the FIA allows what they’ve found, and sometimes it says that goes too far. Occasionally the rules are rewritten afterwards. Now, City. I’m not defending them. A commission found they entered into sham agreements and broke the spending limits. A sham is an arrangement that isn’t what it claims to be, so that’s a different thing from using a gap nobody had spotted. City deny it and will appeal. But I find it useful to ask/reflect on how people inside the club see it. From their point of view, PERHAPS they believe they were doing what elite competitors do: looking at the rules, finding the limits, challenging interpretations and moving faster than the regulatory system. From the outside, you might look at that and say, “That’s cheating.” From inside the organisation, they might say, “We found something nobody had thought of.” If you believe you’ve found a way to bring money in, more or less within the rules (and the commission said it was not in the rules and it was cheating), you might tell yourself you’re just being a sharp competitor. We are all asking “did City cheat?”. But I find this question interesting too: “how did City come to believe they weren’t?” And understanding a mindset, or trying to, isn’t excusing it.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Manchester City were found guilty of 114 out of 115 charges by an independent commission. The comparison made is not in the same ball park to the level of rule breaking Man City have committed. premierleague.com/en/news/472777…
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Biggest egomaniac in football
🚨 Cristiano Ronaldo releases a lengthy statement explaining why he left the Portugal camp, calling out Jorge Jesus for 'broken promises' and reiterating he remains "available" for selection. "As I promised, I decided to recount, in the first person and directly, the circumstances surrounding the latest phase of the national team's journey. "After the 2026 World Cup, I prepared a message for the Portuguese people, which I still keep, containing the words I would like to address to them when I leave our team for good. "At the end of the tournament, on the return flight from the United States, the federation president asked me and insisted that I reconsider my decision to leave, because the Portuguese Football Federation wanted me to continue. "Immediately afterwards, he asked me for my opinion on the name of the current national team coach, whom he was considering, along with other names he did not reveal to me. "I answered the federation president that, in my opinion, he would be the ideal choice. So, on the day the current national team coach was presented, I was genuinely happy with this choice. It was the right choice, as the results prove. "A few days later, I received the first call from the new national team coach, in which he said he wanted to meet me in person. I answered in the affirmative, and we set a date for that. "The end of my holiday." "We met in the Cidade do Futebol, where my team was holding its pre-season training camp. "The coach told me that day that he was counting on me and that my presence was essential to his project. He presented me with a plan for my immediate involvement. He said I would play the first and last matches, and that he would make three or four changes in each match for reasons related to physical fitness. "At that point, he suggested that I not travel with the national team to Norway and Denmark. He proposed that I play the first match and stay in Portugal, then join them before the match at the Estádio do Dragão. "I rejected this proposal immediately. It seemed clear to me that I could not accept it. Not playing matches abroad would not mean I would not be the captain of our team. The privilege of staying in Portugal would not set a good example. "In the end, the coach agreed with my analysis. "Present at this conversation was Simo Coutinho, the sporting director of Al-Nassr, the person to whom the current national team coach had reported throughout last season, and one of those responsible for his joining the club in 2025. "On the eve of the training camp, the coach came to my home in Lisbon for another conversation with me at his request. The conversation was calm, and we adhered to all the principles agreed upon in August. I played the match at the Estádio do Alvalade, and despite being substituted, I did not cause any problems. I personally placed the captain's armband on Bruno Fernandes, and it never occurred to me that I might be taking my final steps as a player and captain of the national team. The most important thing that day, for me, was that we won. Winning is always a good thing, and in Portugal, for my country, it is the best. "At lunchtime on the day of the match in Norway, the national team coach's assistant came to the table where the team was having lunch and told me the coach wanted to speak with me. To my great surprise, the coach asked me if I was ready to play 30 minutes. I was completely focused on my physical recovery, integrated with my teammates as usual, and believing I would not play that day. No problem at all. "This request was outside my physical recovery and training plan, because I was only going to play on the fourth of the month at the Estádio do Dragão, but of course I agreed. He answered me that I should be ready because I would play 30 minutes. "And the rest is known. I started warming up from half-time, watched the minutes go by, and no one called for me. The coach broke his promise. "At the end of the match, I just wanted everything to end with a win and to be alone. I did not go to greet the fans. A mistake for which I alone take responsibility, and which should not have happened. I apologise to the Portuguese people who supported us so passionately there, I apologise to the fans, and I apologise to those who travelled there to see me, even if they were not Portuguese, and whom I perhaps let down. "48 hours later, we had a conversation, myself, the coach and Simo Coutinho, because he was following our conversations "It was a very deep and candid moment, without any reservation. "We agreed that there was only one way to end this 'case': that the coach repeat what he had just told me in private, in the presence of Simo Coutinho, but in the press conference room. "The agreement was simple: the coach would begin the press conference with this subject, trying to end the matter by telling the truth. He would say that I never asked to play, not even for a few minutes, and that the coach alone, no one else, was the one who proposed the plan for this training camp, and that it was a mistake to subject me to only warming up without playing, and that if it happened again, he would not do it. "We ended that meeting with the coach asking me for a hug, and he promised me that he would say in the press conference what he had just said to me, and that the matter was resolved. I would not play in Denmark, but I would play in the Dragão match. All of this took place in the presence of Simo Coutinho, as usual. "At the coach's request, a video meeting was held between him, Simo Coutinho and Tiago Craveiro, to summarise what we had discussed. "A brief document was prepared, which I personally approved, and it was delivered to the coach at his request. "The meeting was as expected: the conduct had nothing to do with our meeting; I heard expressions and aggression that I consider unjustified, and an attitude suggesting that he "wants, can, and orders" which he had never shown me, not even indirectly, in a private session, the day before. "The notes I reviewed were as follows: I think it is important, because it is the truth, to clarify some matters before talking about Denmark: "1. I personally proposed a plan for Cristiano, without anyone else, for this sporting season with the national team. It was a very long and fruitful conversation. "2. I know how much he loves the national team and his global standing, and even more than that, how positive his influence on the national team has been over 24 consecutive years. "3. The plan I proposed to Cristiano was accepted. "4. He never questioned my choices. He has been an example to follow, loyal, and professional. "5. The Norway match was not included in the plan I set out for him. However, I felt that he had physically recovered from the first match, and I warned him that I might have to involve him. Cristiano agreed. "6. I made a mistake by having a player of the stature of Pelé or Maradona only warm up without involving him in the match. If it were today, I would not do it. "7. And in short: I want Cristiano in the national team. In truth, I do not want him a little, but a lot. And fortunately, he too trusts me. He believed in me at Al-Nassr and here too. "8. As for not greeting the fans, we talked about this matter earlier. A player who has played more than 230 matches with the national team does not receive lessons from me on loving Portugal. It was a moment of frustration that erases nothing. He is the player who signs more than anyone else, takes the most selfies, and shows the most affection to the fans. Let us not create problems out of nothing. When we are not happy, we react. That is all there is to it. None of these notes mentioned, therefore, that the coach had apologised to me. "This was the second time he broke his promise. "I decided to leave the training camp without waiting for another unfulfilled promise. For me, the truth remains the most important thing in relationships between people. No matter how painful it is, I want the truth to be told to me. "In fact, in a conversation I had with the president of the Portuguese Football Federation and the coach on the morning of that press conference, you can be sure of this, I assured them that if they did not want me there, they should tell me so. They just had to be honest with me. I would have accepted it and promised them that we would prepare something wonderful, as I hope will happen, and no one would be angry. "I remember it as if it happened yesterday. They answered with one voice in the negative. That my place is in the national team. "I never interfered, at any time, in any technical or tactical decision of any coach or national team official throughout nearly 25 years of my career. I accept, whether good or bad, what they propose. I respect the decision, and when they break my promise, I feel that my place is not here. "I also apologise to my national team teammates for leaving the training camp. For despite my complete breach of the coach's trust, as everyone who witnessed these conversations can attest, I should not have done that. The responsibility falls on me alone. "I apologise to the Portuguese people once again, but my breach of my promise had a profound effect on me. I felt that my continuing with the team, from that moment, would only cause it harm, so I did what I always said I would do if I did not feel useful: I packed my bags and left. "The Portuguese Football Federation must assess the consequences of my actions and punish me for them. I believe the punishment should not be reduced. I am not just an ordinary player; I am the captain of the team, and this is an aggravating factor. I have already apologised, but I know that actions have consequences. Anyone in the world of football, like me, knows that the rules are the same for everyone, regardless of individual standing. "In this regard, I have heard a lot about farewell matches, and that I need a farewell befitting me, and that the federation wishes to grant me this opportunity. "I learned in life, while suffering from hunger and having nothing to eat, that no one gives anything to anyone for free. I can promise all my fans, and especially the Portuguese people, that we will play one or more farewell matches; there will be time for that. "But when I think of the national team, what I really think about is the competition. This is what I thought about the day I received the news of my father's death. I was in a training camp with our national team, and I decided to stay there until the end of the next day's match. I did for my country what I would never do for any club. "So, if I am physically fit, playing with my team, and hopefully scoring goals, after my suspension period ends, I will be available, as I always have been, to compete and win with our national team. This, believe me, is the absolute truth."
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Blimey. You think you’ve seen it all and then someone equates Man City in the Mansour era with Nelson Mandela. 😂
Replying to @sportingintel
Nelson Mandela was found guilty didn't make him wrong
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The narrative that Abu Dhabi buying up land/property in Manchester can only be a good thing is an odd one. Who does it benefit? Who is profiting? How much tax is being paid off the back of it? Not a lot.
How much tax do Manchester Life Management Company pay? (the UK company owned by Abu Dhabi controlled Jersey companies + that collects rental income) Between 2019-2025 the company turnover is £46,857,891, the admin expenses £46,366,004 and the total tax on profit paid £112,316
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JP Quinn retweeted
We do not own a football club but if you punish this football club that we do not own we will punish you
Exclusive with @AlexDooler @DNair5 UAE officials have warned the UK government that the severity of Man City’s punishment could undermine their appetite for future grand-scale commitments in Britain, according to people familiar with the matter They consider the Premier League’s actions to have an influence on the bilateral state relationship, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing undisclosed information The extraordinary pressure comes after Andy Burnham faced criticism, including from within government, for saying Man City’s Abu Dhabi owners should not be disqualified specifically because of the investment they bring to Britain bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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One of the very real consequences of a football club being owned by a nation state with such little regard for human rights. Dare to challenge them, to expose them, & your life might be in danger - to the point of entering witness protection. It's supposed to be a football club.
On Wednesday, just hours after the verdict officially confirming Manchester City’s guilt, the Commission responsible for Portugal's witness protection programme informed me of its decision to terminate my participation in the programme and withdraw my police protection, thereby knowingly placing me in a life-threatening situation. Given these circumstances, I have no alternative but to relocate, within the next few days, to an undisclosed location for an indefinite period of time, due to the multiple death threats I have received and the serious risk of an assassination attempt against me. For this reason, I have just set up a GoFundMe campaign and I am asking for everyone's support to help me survive this serious situation created by the Portuguese State, which, as I have already stated, has knowingly decided to place my life at risk. I would like to take this opportunity to extend a special thanks to everyone who continues to support Football Leaks, and I can give everyone one guarantee: the fight will most certainly continue! gofundme.com/f/help-save-rui…
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But they're totally not state owned, remember?
BREAKING: The UAE is warning British Prime Minister Andy Burnham it will pull billions of pounds of investment the Government was seeking for a hi-tech hub between Oxford and Cambridge, billed as the UK’s answer to Silicon Valley, in retaliation for the guilty verdict against #ManCity. [via @rmendick] telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10…
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JP Quinn retweeted
This is how I imagine an innocent party with irrefutable evidence proving their innocence would act.
BREAKING: The UAE is warning British Prime Minister Andy Burnham it will pull billions of pounds of investment the Government was seeking for a hi-tech hub between Oxford and Cambridge, billed as the UK’s answer to Silicon Valley, in retaliation for the guilty verdict against #ManCity. [via @rmendick] telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10…
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Just a reminder for anyone interested in Abu Dhabi in Manchester. We conducted a forensic investigation into the deal with a range of findings that seem more relevant than ever....land deals, tax payments, offshore companies + 'sweetheart deals' sheffield.ac.uk/management/n…
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JP Quinn retweeted
The cope from some Man City fans is that the sham sponsorship income meant the club overstated revenue and so overpaid corporation tax. So they are due a refund! Awesome! Um, no. City paid *zero* corporation tax because they lost buckets of money. The receipts:
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