NEW: BEN CARROLL HAS PUSHED BACK ON THE FED'S MIGRATION AGENDA. Victorian Premier Ben Carroll has warned against cutting migration too sharply, arguing it could hurt Victoria’s economy, workforce and international education sector. That raises an interesting question ahead of the state election: Why is a Victorian Premier weighing in on migration when migration policy is largely controlled by Canberra? Because while migration is overwhelmingly a federal policy issue, its effects feed directly into debates Victorians experience at state level: 🏠 Housing 🚆 Infrastructure 🏥 Public services 🍽️ Workforce shortages 🎓 Universities and international education Hospitality and tourism are a good example. Victoria’s restaurants, cafes, pubs, hotels and regional tourism businesses rely to varying degrees on migrant and temporary workers, particularly in areas already struggling to fill shifts. Tourism groups have warned that reducing access to Working Holiday Maker labour could worsen shortages, with national industry estimates putting more than 20,000 jobs and $3 billion in annual visitor spending at risk. But there is an important distinction. 🇦🇺 Policy-wise, migration is overwhelmingly federal. Canberra controls visas, Working Holiday Maker settings and the overall migration program. Victoria can nominate a limited number of skilled migrants, but it cannot determine Australia’s overall migration intake. Electorally, however, migration does not stay neatly within federal politics. For some voters, migration can become a vote-deciding issue, even when the state government itself does not control the policy. It has also become part of the wider debate around One Nation’s recent growth, alongside cost of living, housing pressure and dissatisfaction with the major parties. Immigration ranks particularly highly as an issue among One Nation supporters. 🟠 One Nation wants substantially lower migration, arguing rapid population growth is putting pressure on housing, infrastructure and public services. 🔴 Carroll is making the competing economic argument: cut migration too far and Victoria risks losing workers and damaging industries that depend on them. So while the Victorian Government does not set Australia’s migration policy, its consequences, and voters’ attitudes towards it, can still influence the Victorian election. Federal policy. State consequences. This fox is following closely 🦊. #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

LIVING IN VICTORIA? YOUR PARLIAMENT IS ABOUT TO STOP SITTING. 🏛️ Many people don't actually know this, but today is the final scheduled sitting day of Victorian Parliament before the 28 November election. That means there are still 79 days until voting day, but no more ordinary sitting weeks are currently scheduled. So does government stop? No! Don't worry. Ministers, Cabinet and government departments continue operating. MPs continue electorate work and campaigning. What largely stops is the ordinary business inside Parliament: Question Time, debates and passing legislation through the chambers. And Victoria is not in caretaker mode yet. That is expected to begin at 6pm on 3 November, when the Legislative Assembly’s term expires and the election writs are issued. From then, conventions restrict things such as major policy decisions, significant appointments and major contracts. So the timeline is: 🏛️ 10 Sep: final scheduled sitting day 🗳️ 3 Nov: Parliament’s term ends + caretaker begins ✅ 28 Nov: Election Day Parliament may be leaving the chamber, but the election campaign is only getting started. 79 days to vote and counting. This fox is following closely 🦊. Sources: Parliament of Victoria; Victorian Electoral Commission; Department of Premier and Cabinet. #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes2

JUST IN: MOIRA DEEMING HAS JOINED FAMILY FIRST. 👀 The former Liberal MP will contest the 28 November electionas Family First’s lead candidate in Western Metropolitan Region of Victoria. Deeming was removed as a Liberal candidate in July and has since been sitting as an independent. Haven't heard of Family First before? It is a revived socially conservative minor party built around what it calls “family, faith, life and freedom”, with a strong focus on traditional family policy, religious freedom and socially conservative issues. Deeming already holds an Upper House seat in Western Metro, since winning with the Liberals in 2022. Now the question is: Can she bring enough voters with her to win it again under a new party banner? 79 days to vote. This fox is following closely each week. 🦊 Sources: ABC News; Family First. #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

STATE VS. FED. WHO CONTROLS WHAT? 🇦🇺🏛️ Federal and state governments often work on the same policy areas - but they control different parts of them. 🇦🇺 The Federal Government is mainly responsible for national matters such as defence, foreign affairs, Medicare, welfare, universities, immigration and citizenship, and national taxation. 🏛️ The Victorian Government has major responsibility for areas within the state, including public hospitals, ambulances, schools, police, courts, prisons, trains, trams, roads, planning, construction and state taxes, But the split is not always simple. 💰 Tax: Canberra controls major national taxes such as income tax and GST settings, while Victoria raises its own taxes including payroll tax, land tax and stamp duty. 🏥 Health: Canberra funds Medicare and contributes to hospital funding; Victoria runs the public hospital and ambulance systems. 🏠 Housing: both governments fund housing initiatives, while Victoria controls much of the planning and development system. 🚆 Infrastructure: both levels can fund major projects, while Victoria plans, builds and operates much of the state transport network. ⚡ Energy: policy and regulation are shared across state and federal systems, with Victoria also making laws and decisions affecting electricity, gas and energy infrastructure. So when Victorians vote on 28 November, they are choosing the government that will make Victorian laws, set the state budget and make many of the decisions affecting how the state is run. Different level of government. Different responsibilities. This fox is following closely 🦊. #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

LIVING IN VICTORIA? THIS ROAD REPORT AFFECTS YOU. According to a new Auditor-General report released today: More than $3 BILLION a year. In contrast, Labor's road asset funding is at about $1.39bn. 🕳️ 48% of state roads were rated poor or very poor in 2024, up from 39% in 2021. And the problem is already growing deeper (literally…) 📉 The Auditor-General says the network is deteriorating faster than repairs are being completed. So what are the parties proposing? 🔴 Labor: an extra $352m this year, including a target to fix 500,000 potholes. 🔵 L-NP Coalition: $5bn over four years, including one million pothole repairs and greater preventative maintenance. 🟢 Greens: want greater public capacity for preventative maintenance and have criticised further privatisation of road maintenance. 🟠 One Nation: no detailed Victorian road-maintenance policy that we could find. But against a $3bn+ annual estimate just to maintain existing pavement condition, the numbers put every election promise into perspective. Who has a credible long-term plan to stop the network deteriorating? 80 days to vote. This fox is following closely 🦊. Sources: Victorian Auditor-General, Maintaining State Roads; Victorian Government; Victorian L-NP Coalition; Victorian Greens. #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

🏠THE WORK-FROM-HOME BILL AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR VICTORIANS. Let's dive in✍️. Premier Ben Carroll has stated Victoria’s work-from-home legislation will pass Parliament this week. So what would it actually change? First: it does not mean every Victorian automatically gets two days at home. The Equal Opportunity Amendment (Work from Home) Bill would create a legal right for employees to work from home for up to two days a week where it is reasonable for their job. For part-time employees and regular casuals, the entitlement would apply on a pro-rata basis. HOW WOULD IT WORK? 💻 An employee gives their employer written notice identifying the days and times they want to work from home. 🏢 The employer has 21 days to respond. ✅ If working from home is reasonable, the employer must allow it. ❌ But an employer can refuse or propose a different arrangement where WFH would create problems such as the job requiring in-person attendance. (see full list here) BUT DON’T WE ALREADY HAVE WFH RIGHTS? Sort of. Under federal Fair Work laws, certain employees can already requestflexible working arrangements after 12 months, including parents of young children, carers, pregnant workers, people with disability, workers aged 55+, and people affected by family and domestic violence. Victoria’s proposal goes further. Rather than simply giving certain workers a right to ask, it creates a presumptive right to WFH where the job can reasonably be performed remotely. THE POLITICS 🔴 Labor: says protecting WFH will save workers time and money and improve workforce participation. 🔵 Liberals and Nationals: have said they support the principle of WFH, but pushed for stronger protections around costs, safety, employer liability and implementation. 🟢 Greens: strongly support a legislated WFH right but oppose Carroll’s delay and attempts to weaken the original proposal. 🏢 Business groups: remain opposed to the legislation even after Carroll’s proposed concessions, arguing existing flexible-work laws are sufficient and the Victorian scheme would add costs and complexity. This fox is following closely each week🦊. Sources: Parliament of Victoria, Victorian Government Solicitor’s Office, Fair Work Ombudsman, ABC News, Victorian Greens, Business Council of Australia. #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

📊 DO POLLS SIMPLY MEASURE POLITICAL MOMENTUM - OR CAN THEY HELP CREATE IT? One Nation’s rise has become one of the biggest stories in Australian politics. But Crikey raises an interesting question today:could constantly reporting that surge also help reinforce it? Political scientists call this the bandwagon effect. The idea is simple: A party rises in the polls ↓ The rise becomes a major news story ↓ The party looks more viable and politically significant ↓ Some voters become more comfortable supporting it ↓ That support may appear in the next poll Academic research suggests this effect can exist, particularly when voters are told a party is gaining momentum, rather than simply shown a polling number. But the evidence is not clear-cut. Australian research has found little evidence of voters simply jumping behind whichever party is ahead. What polling may do is amplify a movement that is already happening. In this case, argues Crikey, that movement is Hanson's One Nation. This makes the Victorian election on 28 Novemberparticularly interesting. It won’t prove whether federal polling is right or wrong, but it will provide another real-world test of whether One Nation’s polling momentum is translating into actual votes. Are the polls simply recording the surge? Or has repeatedly telling voters that One Nation is surging become part of the surge itself? This fox is following closely each week 🦊. Sources: Crikey; Dahlgaard et al. (2017); Van der Meer et al. (2016); Goot (2010). #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

ATTENTION VICTORIA ‼️ HOW YOU VOTE IN THE STATE ELECTION HAS CHANGED. When you walk in to vote on 28 November, you’ll still receive two ballot papers: 🗳️ Lower House - Legislative Assembly 🗳️ Upper House - Legislative Council Your Lower House vote stays the same: number every candidate in order of preference. But, above-the-line voting for the Upper House has changed. Previously, you could put a single 1 next to one party or group. Your later preferences were then allocated according to the group voting ticket(s) registered by that party or group. That system is gone. This November, if you vote above the line: ➡️ Number at least 5 parties or groups yourself, in your preferred order. If you vote below the line: ➡️ Number at least 5 individual candidates, as before. So the big change is simple: BEFORE: Above the line = choose 1 group. NOW: Above the line = number at least 5 groups in your own order. Above-the-line voters now have much more direct control over where their preferences go. Sources: Victorian Electoral Commission, Parliament of Victoria. #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26 This fox is following closely🦊.

JUST IN. THE SRL HAS STARTED TUNNELLING. 🚇 Today, the first tunnel boring machine for the Suburban Rail Loop began digging from Burwood towards Glen Waverley. This major construction milestone is also becoming an important political one... With 82 days until Victoria votes, the parties now have very different positions on a project that is tunnelling underneath Melbourne's suburban streets. The project has also been under pressure after the Auditor-General revealed a previously undisclosed 1% annual public transport fare levy linked to SRL funding, which Carroll then scrapped. SO, WHAT CHANGED TODAY? Today, tunnelling started. Regardless of the scrutiny, the project is underway. The parties still stand here: 🔴 Labor: keep building it, with cuts. 🔵 Coalition: pause and review it. 🟠 One Nation: abolish it. 🟢 Greens: support better public transport but demand greater scrutiny. The SRL is becoming one of the clearest infrastructure dividing lines of the Victorian election. Victoria votes 28 November. This fox is following closely 🦊. Sources: Victorian Government, ABC News, Victorian Auditor-General, Parliament of Victoria. #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

STATE MATTERS. WEEK THREE. Less than 90 days till voting. 82 to be exact. 57 days to caretaker. Latest poll still: L/NP 27, ALP 25, ONP 23, GRN 12 (Resolve, 9–15 Aug). Conversations this week: Transport: Transparency has become a major campaign issue in regards to transport fares. The Auditor-General revealed a previously undisclosed 1% annual levy on public transport fares, introduced in January 2025 as part of the Suburban Rail Loop funding model. Premier Ben Carroll has since scrapped the levy. Separately, Victoria Police’s Taskforce Hawk investigation into alleged corruption and criminal activity in the construction sector continued, with a former CFMEU delegate charged over an alleged $424,000 fraud involving secret commissions. Roads: The outer west is firmly in focus. Labor pledged $550m for the Western Freeway between Melton and Caroline Springs, adding to $1bn already committed by the federal government. The plan includes extra lanes and upgraded interchanges. Health: The Coalition announced a $40m regional health workforce scheme, offering incentives of up to $10,000 to attract doctors, nurses, midwives, dentists and allied health workers to regional and rural Victoria. Closest contests (% margin): Bass (0.2%), Northcote (0.2%), Pakenham (0.4%), Mornington (0.7%), Benambra (0.9%). Other seats worth watching: Bendigo East. One Nation has named cattle farmer Cheryl Hawken as its candidate. The Nationals already have Andrew Lethlean in the race, while Labor is replacing former premier Jacinta Allan. Labor won the seat by 10.9% in 2022, but the retirement makes this an unusually open contest. Melton. Labor holds 4.6%. This week’s $550m Western Freeway commitment puts one of Melbourne’s fast-growing outer-western electorates directly at the centre of Labor’s infrastructure pitch. Pakenham. Labor holds just 0.4%. One Nation state leader Warren Pickering is running here, making the seat one of the clearest places to watch how a three-way Labor, Coalition and One Nation contest develops. Victoria decides on 28 November. This fox is following closely each week. 🦊 Sources: Resolve, Victorian Auditor-General’s Office, ABC News, Victoria Police, Antony Green, VEC. #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26