Victoria! Looking beyond the major parties? 👀 Here are the independents in the most competitive seats. Independents won zero lower house seats in 2022. In a tight race where a hung parliament is a real possibility, a handful of them could decide who governs 👇 (by the way: teal is a mix of liberal 🔵 economic views but more green 🟢 when it comes to climate action) 🏙️ Sophie Torney, Kew Backed by Climate 200, Torney is running again after winning 21% of the vote in Kew in 2022. Considered one of the two strongest teal chances. 🏙️ Shima Ibuki, Hawthorn The other leading teal prospect, in a seat where the independent candidate took 20% in 2022. Ibuki has been vocal about a donations system she argues favours the major parties. 🌊 Melissa Goffin, Mornington A local business owner and former teacher, selected by the community group Independents for Mornington Peninsula. The seat has a strong independent base: Kate Lardner fell within 400 votes of winning it in 2022. 🏔️ Dr Lachlan McKeeman, Benambra A GP running as a community independent in the north-east, with health as his core issue. 💰 The money twist saga Torney and Ibuki each received $140,000 from Climate 200, the largest donations on the VEC register, and both had to hand them back under reinstated donation caps. 🗓️ Still to come Nominations open 4 November and close 9 November, so expect more names, especially in regional seats. 📚 Sources: AAP, Mornington Peninsula News, The Border Mail, Victorian Electoral #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

📊 DO POLLS SIMPLY MEASURE POLITICAL MOMENTUM - OR CAN THEY HELP CREATE IT? One Nation’s rise has become one of the biggest stories in Australian politics. But Crikey raises an interesting question: could constantly reporting that surge also help reinforce it? Political scientists call this the bandwagon effect. The idea is simple: A party rises in the polls ↓ The rise becomes a major news story ↓ The party looks more viable and politically significant ↓ Some voters become more comfortable supporting it ↓ That support may appear in the next poll Academic research suggests this effect can exist, particularly when voters are told a party is gaining momentum, rather than simply shown a polling number. But the evidence is not clear-cut. Australian research has found little evidence of voters simply jumping behind whichever party is ahead. What polling may do is amplify a movement that is already happening. In this case, argues Crikey, that movement is Hanson's One Nation. This makes the Victorian election on 28 November particularly interesting. It won’t prove whether federal polling is right or wrong, but it will provide another real-world test of whether One Nation’s polling momentum is translating into actual votes. Are the polls simply recording the surge? Or has repeatedly telling voters that One Nation is surging become part of the surge itself? This fox is following closely each week 🦊. Sources: Crikey; Dahlgaard et al. (2017); Van der Meer et al. (2016); Goot (2010). #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

Now One Nations integrity may be under attack... Around 1,200 Victorians applied to run for One Nation at November's election. Here's what the process looked like: 1. Paid a $150 non-refundable application fee 2. Paid $60 for party membership 3. Signed a non-disclosure agreement 4. Shortlisted applicants sat a 15-minute Zoom interview with a panel that included state leader Warren Pickering 5. If selected, were asked for $5,500 to stand Applicants say they learned of the $5,500 fee only at the end of the interview… What did people think? One former councillor told the ABC that Pickering spent almost the whole interview on "a scripted monologue," leaving little time for questions at the end. Former MP Aidan McLindon called the process "probably pre-determined and dishonest." A former mayor's complaint letter says applicants felt "used, lied to, misled and gaslit." Others were happy with it. Michael Piastrino, now One Nation's candidate for Berwick, told the ABC: "The vetting process was fantastic. I think it was done so professionally." One Nation says the fees cover police and other checks, and that these contributions are a standard requirement for major parties. Is this true? Labor says it charges no application fee. The Liberals have been known to charge up to $5,000 depending on the seat, and applicants know about it when they first apply. The Victorian Greens' rules set no candidate fee. Two months exactly until Victorians vote. The fox is following closely. #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

Could Victoria's Red Wall Fall? Melbourne's outer west, (Melton, Sunbury, Werribee) has voted Labor for decades. Its demographic is working families, migrants, people buying their first home further out where it's affordable. However, a new poll just showed One Nation edging ahead of Labor there for the first time. 25% to 24%. Still.. when you count preferences (basically, who voters pick second if their first choice doesn't win), Labor still comes out ahead, 53% to 47%. So this may be a peak of support rather than a wholistic picture. A chunk of that support could drift back to Labor through the preferential voting system. We've already seen how shaky this can get. At last year's Werribee by-election, Labor's vote dropped sharply and the seat came down to just 693 votes. One Nation weren't even running a candidate that time. So although this used to be a 'safe' Labor area, Carroll should already know he can't rely on previous voters. RedBridge's own pollster, Kos Samaras, reckons that 25% figure has a ceiling. Only about 10% of it is truly rusted-on support. The rest is "rented," and how the party behaves matters. He thinks recent scandals could see roughly half drift back to the Liberals, while Labor voters who'd switched to One Nation might land on an independent instead. If they field a real campaign in November, that support will really be tested. Regardless, Melbourne's outer west is one to watch. This fox is following closely 🦊. Sources: ABC News, Redbridge, Accent Research, AFR #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

The royal commission into alleged corruption in Victoria's Big Build begins today. Still don't understand it? Let's deep dive✍️: Victoria's $109 billion Big Build infrastructure program was allegedly infiltrated by organised crime and outlaw motorcycle gangs, working through the construction union (CFMEU). The alleged schemes included extortion, rigged procurement and "ghost shifts", where companies billed for work that was never done. An independent estimate put the cost at around $15 billion. The CFMEU was placed into administration in 2024. Jacinta Allan was transport minister and responsible for the program before becoming premier. She repeatedly rejected calls for a royal commission, arguing cost blowouts came from inflation, not union misconduct. In July 2026, Nine newspapers reported that senior public servants had briefed her in June 2023 about criminal and bikie infiltration affecting project costs. Allan said she never saw the brief, but the report contradicted her position. The scandal led to Allan's resignation, and Carrolls new government has struggled to replace this lost trust. To help repair the damage, Premier Ben Carroll called this royal commission as his first act, aiming to root out further corruption and build on a clean break from Allan's government. He has also promised to strengthen IBAC. How will it work? Commissioner Chris Kourakis, a former Chief Justice of South Australia, has a $50 million budget and until 20 August 2027 to: 🔍investigate corruption, extortion, bribery, intimidation and misconduct on major projects 🔍examine how the CFMEU, construction companies and labour hire firms operated 🔍assess government oversight, including what ministers and departments knew and when 🔍look at whether taxpayer money can be recovered 🔍recommend structural, industrial and cultural reforms Two blocks of hearings will be held before the end of this year. The commission can compel anyone to give evidence, including former premiers Daniel Andrews and Jacinta Allan. It can also demand documents, including cabinet papers, and its public hearings will be livestreamed. What can it deliver? A public, official record of what happened, tested under oath Referrals to police and prosecutors. It can't convict anyone itself. Recommendations for new laws, stronger watchdogs, and tighter procurement and labour hire rules A path to recovering some of the money The timing risk ⏰. The hearings run through the election campaign, ahead of the vote on 28 November. The royal commission gives Carroll an integrity message that separates him from the previous leadership, but it also keeps the scandal in the headlines. So far the polls haven't rewarded him. This fox is following closely 🦊. #auspol #vicpol #vicvotes26 Sources: ABC News, The Guardian, Monash Lens, The Poll Bludger

HAS VICTORIA HAD ITS LAST WEEK IN SPRING STREET TILL THE ELECTION? 🏛️ There are no more scheduled sitting days before Victorians vote on 28 November. But Parliament itself only expires on the 3rd November, when the election writs are issued and Victoria is expected to enter caretaker mode from 6pm. Until then, the government keeps governing, just no speaking in parliament unless called in for various reasons. For example, Labor’s work-from-home bill has been sent to a parliamentary committee, which is due to report on 20 October. That is almost a month after the final scheduled sitting. So if the bill were to be considered again before the election, Parliament would need to be brought back for an extra sitting. However, recently, Premier Ben Carroll has ruled out adding extra sitting days, saying the focus is on getting other legislation through during the remaining sitting period. Caretaker begins 3 November. Victoria votes 28 November. 🦊 This fox is following closely. Sources: Parliament of Victoria; Victorian Government Caretaker Guidelines; AAP; legislation.vic.gov.au

VICTORIA STATE MATTERS. WEEK FIVE. 68 days to voting. 43 days to caretaker. New polls out this week ! RedBridge/Accent: 🔵 L-NP 29% | 🟠 ONP 25% | 🔴 Labor 24% | 🟢 Greens 15% Resolve: 🔵 L-NP 28% | 🔴 Labor 25% | 🟠 ONP 23% | 🟢 Greens 12% RedBridge has One Nation +3 since its previous poll, while Resolve shows a much steadier picture. Conversations this week: 🚔 Crime Labor promised 1,500 additional police and broader Jack’s Law search powers, building on a policy previously proposed by the Coalition. ⚡ Energy The Western Renewables Link’s environmental assessment was approved, but further approvals are still required. Premier Ben Carroll also ordered an independent cost review, as Brookfield separately describes WRL as an approximately A$4bn project in a US SEC filing. 🎟️ Integrity The Auditor-General reviewed Victoria’s $1.145bn, 40-year lottery licence extension. It found no significant probity issues, but said the process limited public transparency. 🏥 Health Victoria launched its Women’s Pain Standard, following an inquiry that heard from more than 13,000 women and girls. It sets expectations for how health services recognise, assess and respond to pain, including that women should be listened to, taken seriously and included in decisions about their treatment. Closest modelled contests (YouGov MRP preferencial voting): 🟢 Richmond: Greens 50.1% | Labor 49.9% 🔴 St Albans: Labor 50.1% | One Nation 49.9% 🟠 Narre Warren North: One Nation 50.2% | Labor 49.8% Other seats worth watching: NORTHCOTE 🟢 Labor beat the Greens by just 184 votes in 2022. YouGov’s MRP currently models Labor ahead 53.1–46.9 after preferences, making it an interesting test of whether the Greens can improve on an already very close result. RIPON 🟠 RedBridge director Kos Samaras told the ABC that One Nation support in Ripon had climbed above 40%. The regional seat is also at the centre of the debate over major transmission projects, including VNI West and WRL. That 40% figure is reported support, not a 40-point winning margin or a final preference result. 28 November 2026. This fox is following closely each week 🦊. Sources: RedBridge/Accent, Resolve Strategic, YouGov, VEC, ABC News, VAGO, Victorian Department of Health, US SEC.

VICTORIA’S WORK-FROM-HOME LAW HAS STALLED AFTER AN 18–17 VOTE. 🏠 Labor’s proposed two-day WFH right passed the Lower House, but the Upper House voted 18–17 to send it to an inquiry. The inquiry reports on 20 October, after the final scheduled sitting before the 28 November election. So unless Parliament is recalled, the bill is unlikely to pass this term. 🔴 Labor: opposed the delay and supports legislating the WFH right. 🔵 L-NP Coalition: backed the referral for further scrutiny. 🟠 One Nation: backed the referral and has opposed Labor’s proposal, raising concerns about its impact on small businesses. 🟢 Greens: opposed the delay and want Parliament recalled so the bill can pass. What does this mean for the election? If the bill is not passed before Parliament expires, it lapses. That means the make-up of the Parliament elected on 28 Novemberwill help determine whether a WFH right returns, and what that right ultimately looks like. This fox is following closely each week. 🦊 Sources: Parliament of Victoria, ABC News, AAP, Victorian Greens, Wangaratta Chronicle. #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

CLIVE PALMER IS RETURNING TO FAMILIAR TERRITORY. The businessman and former federal MP @CliveFPalmer has confirmed he will contest the Queensland seat of Fadden for the @UnitedAusParty, beginning his campaign well ahead of the next federal election. And his choice of advertising space carries some history. A large Palmer billboard now boldly overlooks the Labrador electorate office of sitting LNP MP Cameron Caldwell. It is the same billboard location Palmer used during the 2013 federal election campaign, when he went on to win the Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax and enter Parliament. Thirteen years later, Palmer is back on familiar turf, this time targeting an established LNP seat on the Gold Coast. He is also putting his local connection at the centre of the campaign, pledging to donate his parliamentary salary to local charities if elected. Whether the old billboard proves lucky twice remains to be seen, but Palmer clearly knows the value of a location that has served him before. In Fadden, the next federal campaign has already begun. This fox is following closely 🦊. Sources: Courier-Mail, AEC, The Australian. #auspol

THIS WEEK IN CRICKET. 🏏 Australia are back. After a short break, the men begin a three-match ODI series against Zimbabwe tomorrow, kicking off a major run of cricket in Africa. THIS WEEK 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe v Australia Tuesday 15 Sep - 1st ODI Friday 18 Sep - 2nd ODI Sunday 20 Sep - 3rd ODI But these aren't just three isolated ODIs. Australia then head straight to South Africa for another three ODIs before the focus switches to Test cricket in October. And there’s a bigger picture: 🏆 The 2027 ODI World Cup will be hosted by South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia. Australia are effectively getting an early look at the conditions they'll return to when they defend their World Cup title next year. PLAYERS TO WATCH 👀 The next generation. Australia have brought Oliver Peake, Joel Davies and Cooper Connolly into the ODI group alongside established names including Travis Head, Cameron Green and Mitchell Marsh. With the 2027 World Cup approaching, these matches are another opportunity to work out who belongs in Australia's next ODI side. THE BIG SELECTION STORY 📈 Marnus Labuschagne. He has been left out of the ODI squads but retained for next month's Test series against South Africa despite more than three years without a Test century. Selectors are sticking with him. The pressure to make that decision pay off is growing. WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT 🔭 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe ODIs 🇿🇦 South Africa ODIs 🇿🇦 South Africa Tests The Tests matter for more than the rivalry too. Australia's three-match series against the reigning World Test Champions will be an important part of the race towards the 2027 World Test Championship Final. Australia's season is about to get busy. This fox is following closely🦊. #Cricket #AUSvZIM #AUSvSA

STATE MATTERS. WEEK FOUR. Less than 80 days till voting. 75 to be exact. 50 days to caretaker. Latest poll still: 🔵 L-NP 27% 🔴 ALP 25% 🟠 ONP 23% 🟢 GRN 12% Resolve, 9–15 Aug. Conversations this week: 💻 WORK FROM HOME A major election promise has stalled. Victoria’s Upper House voted to defer Labor’s proposed right-to-work-from-home laws, making them unlikely to pass before the election. Labor says the legislation would protect flexibility for workers. The Coalition and crossbenchers backed further scrutiny, while business groups have raised concerns about costs and complexity. It now looks increasingly likely that voters will decide the issue before Parliament does. 🕳️ ROADS A new Auditor-General report found 48% of Victoria’s state-road network was in poor or very poor condition in 2024, up from 39% in 2021. The Department of Transport and Planning estimated it would require more than $3bn a year to maintain existing pavement conditions and replace ageing assets. That puts road maintenance firmly back into the election debate, particularly across regional Victoria. 🚇 SUBURBAN RAIL LOOP The SRL reached a major physical milestone: tunnelling has begun. The first tunnel boring machine started moving from Burwood towards Glen Waverley. Politically, the divide remains clear: Labor is continuing the project while seeking savings; the Coalition wants it paused and reviewed; One Nation wants it abolished. The election debate is now taking place while the project is literally being built underground. 🚶‍♀️MIGRATION Premier Ben Carroll pushed back against moves in Canberra to lower migration, warning that going too far could hurt Victoria’s workforce, economy and international education sector. Migration policy itself is overwhelmingly federal, but its consequences feed into state issues including housing, infrastructure, services and workforce shortages. It also remains particularly important to many One Nation voters, making a federal issue potentially relevant to how some Victorians vote in November. Closest contests (% margin): Bass 0.2% | Northcote 0.2% | Pakenham 0.4% | Mornington 0.7% | Benambra 0.9% Other seats worth watching: RIPON One Nation has now confirmed Donna Buxton as its candidate, adding another player to an already crowded regional contest. VNI West also runs directly through the electorate, making energy infrastructure, farming and regional services particularly important campaign issues. MORWELL Keep watching the Latrobe Valley. The Nationals hold Morwell, but analysts have identified it as one of the strongest potential areas for One Nation growth. Energy transition, jobs and the future of coal-fired generation remain central local issues. NORTHCOTE Labor holds Northcote by just 0.2% against the Greens. Unlike many of the marginal contests being discussed this election, this is a contest on Labor’s left rather than its right, making it an important test of whether the Greens can expand their Lower House representation. Victoria decides on 28 November. This fox is following closely each week. 🦊 Sources: Resolve Political Monitor; Victorian Auditor-General’s Office; ABC News; Victorian Government / SRL; Department of Premier and Cabinet; VEC; The Guardian. #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26