@ArgusPlatformAI

Went from the Navy to a SWAT team to building defense software. Co-founder of ARGUS. I write about wargaming, AI that shows its work, and building from zero.

 Florida
argusplatform.ai
Joined September 2026
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On this day in 1944, off Samar, a small group of escort carriers called Taffy 3 found Japan's Center Force bearing down on them. The big U.S. battleships were up north, chasing a decoy. Every wargame deserves one question up front: what's our decoy?
Dark oil-painting style grey dawn sea in rain squalls. Small U.S. warships in the foreground lay white smoke while a line of large Japanese battleships with pagoda masts looms on the horizon, shell splashes nearby. Text: "On this day, 25 October 1944. Off Samar. The battleships were up north, chasing a decoy. First question in any wargame: what's our decoy?"

ALT Dark oil-painting style grey dawn sea in rain squalls. Small U.S. warships in the foreground lay white smoke while a line of large Japanese battleships with pagoda masts looms on the horizon, shell splashes nearby. Text: "On this day, 25 October 1944. Off Samar. The battleships were up north, chasing a decoy. First question in any wargame: what's our decoy?"

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Our model's challenger scored better in testing. We still didn't promote it. The interval on the difference crosses zero, so the gain could be noise. A gate that holds beats a number that looks good.
Dark ARGUS card titled "Better score. Not promoted." Two bars, champion and challenger, nearly equal length. Below, an interval on the difference spans zero. A red stamp reads NOT PROMOTED. Caption: the gain could be noise, so the champion stays.

ALT Dark ARGUS card titled "Better score. Not promoted." Two bars, champion and challenger, nearly equal length. Below, an interval on the difference spans zero. A red stamp reads NOT PROMOTED. Caption: the gain could be noise, so the champion stays.

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Someone dropped a real fruit fly brain map into an AI-generated world, and the fly can't tell it's fake. Wargamers know the feeling. Build a good enough sim and nobody stops to ask which parts are real. Label them anyway.
🤖 Made with AI
Dark night city seen from above, split down the middle. Left half is a real lit city tagged REAL, right half is a teal wireframe city tagged GENERATED, with a small fruit fly hovering on the dividing line. Text: "News, simulation. The fly can't tell. Label the parts anyway."

ALT Dark night city seen from above, split down the middle. Left half is a real lit city tagged REAL, right half is a teal wireframe city tagged GENERATED, with a small fruit fly hovering on the dividing line. Text: "News, simulation. The fly can't tell. Label the parts anyway."

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ARGUS's AI analyst, first 11 answers in production: 10 drafts tried to state a number it couldn't source. 7 fixed on repair. The rest got cut. 0 untagged numbers reached the screen. Showing it live at HAAC today.
Dark scoreboard card titled "No source, no number" with four boxes: 11 answers, 10 drafts with an unsourced number, 7 fixed on repair, 0 untagged numbers shown. Text below: "The rest of those sentences got cut. Every number on screen ties to a tool result. Live at HAAC today." Footer: ARGUS, production, from 19 Oct 2026.

ALT Dark scoreboard card titled "No source, no number" with four boxes: 11 answers, 10 drafts with an unsourced number, 7 fixed on repair, 0 untagged numbers shown. Text below: "The rest of those sentences got cut. Every number on screen ties to a tool result. Live at HAAC today." Footer: ARGUS, production, from 19 Oct 2026.

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Scorecard, week 1 of 8. Ground changed hands in 6 of 176 cells. Our top 10 picks caught 4 and missed 2. Brier 0.023 vs 0.034 for just guessing the base rate. One week proves nothing. Seven to go, and every miss stays posted. github.com/pearl-labs-llc/ar…
Dark two-column scoreboard. Text: "Forecast series, scorecard. Week 1 of 8. Called it: 4. Missed: 2. 1 week counted, not evidence of skill. Top 10 picks. Every miss stays posted."

ALT Dark two-column scoreboard. Text: "Forecast series, scorecard. Week 1 of 8. Called it: 4. Missed: 2. 1 week counted, not evidence of skill. Top 10 picks. Every miss stays posted."

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Tomorrow we show ARGUS at HAAC. Our one rule for every screen: if it can't say where a number came from, it doesn't go up. Also praying to the conference Wi-Fi gods. They have never once been on our side.
Dark empty stage with a laptop glowing on a lectern; the screen shows three blurred grey placeholder bars, each with a SOURCE tag, and a Wi-Fi icon with one bar. Text: "Tomorrow, HAAC demo. Where did that number come from? If it can't say, it doesn't go up."

ALT Dark empty stage with a laptop glowing on a lectern; the screen shows three blurred grey placeholder bars, each with a SOURCE tag, and a Wi-Fi icon with one bar. Text: "Tomorrow, HAAC demo. Where did that number come from? If it can't say, it doesn't go up."

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Reports this week put the Geran-5 at a turbojet and up to 600 km/h. A defense tuned for slow propeller drones now gets the same alarm with a lot less clock. If you model air defense, speed just became the input you can't hand-wave.
Dark radar scope with a slow track and a fast track, beside two timing bars, a long grey bar for a propeller drone and a short teal bar for the Geran-5. Text: "News, air defense. Less clock. Geran-5 / turbojet, up to 600 km/h. Same alarm. Shorter warning. Speed is the input you can't hand-wave."

ALT Dark radar scope with a slow track and a fast track, beside two timing bars, a long grey bar for a propeller drone and a short teal bar for the Geran-5. Text: "News, air defense. Less clock. Geran-5 / turbojet, up to 600 km/h. Same alarm. Shorter warning. Speed is the input you can't hand-wave."

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Sunday we sealed this week's call before anyone knew the answer: 176 cells along the Ukraine front, odds that ground changes hands in each over 7 days. The hash is public now. It gets scored on the Oct 25 map, and misses stay up. github.com/pearl-labs-llc/ar…
Dark terrain map with a glowing blue front line divided into a grid of cells. Text: "Forecast series, this week's call. Sealed before the answer. Sealed, SHA-256 published. 176 cells, 7 days. Scored on the Oct 25 map. Week 2 of 8 / pending."

ALT Dark terrain map with a glowing blue front line divided into a grid of cells. Text: "Forecast series, this week's call. Sealed before the answer. Sealed, SHA-256 published. 176 cells, 7 days. Scored on the Oct 25 map. Week 2 of 8 / pending."

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On this day in 1805, Nelson took 27 ships of the line into 33 off Cape Trafalgar and won anyway. A model that only counts hulls calls that one wrong. The count was never the hard part. Everything the count leaves out was.
Dark oil-painting style aerial view of two columns of sailing warships cutting toward a long enemy line at sea. Text: "On this day, 21 October 1805. Trafalgar. 27 vs 33 ships of the line. The count was never the hard part."

ALT Dark oil-painting style aerial view of two columns of sailing warships cutting toward a long enemy line at sea. Text: "On this day, 21 October 1805. Trafalgar. 27 vs 33 ships of the line. The count was never the hard part."

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How a case like the Baltic fakes would go into the cog-war corpus we're building: five intake rules, all in the image. The one that stings: reach gets labeled reach, and effect stays "unknown" until someone shows it. Big numbers hate that rule. What would you add?
ARGUS card titled How a case goes into the corpus. Five intake rules as a checklist: public source, dated; real anchor tagged apart from the fake claim; audience and channel, not just topic; reach labeled reach, effect unknown until shown; human review before it goes in. Labeled design intent, building.

ALT ARGUS card titled How a case goes into the corpus. Five intake rules as a checklist: public source, dated; real anchor tagged apart from the fake claim; audience and channel, not just topic; reach labeled reach, effect unknown until shown; human review before it goes in. Labeled design intent, building.

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