3X Founder in Data Centers and Digital Infrastructure markets. Personal account.

United States
Joined August 2011
Anthony Wanger retweeted
Free newsletter: I estimate that ~50% of AI chip sales - $200bn to $300bn+ - are sitting in warehouses, with NVIDIA selling hundreds of billions of GPUs years in advance. Data centers take way longer to build than hyperscalers are leading us to believe. wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-…
104
350
63
2,516
880,240
Anthony Wanger retweeted
Data center construction is going vertical Spend has jumped more than $25B in six months, roughly what it gained over the previous two years combined Construction job openings bottomed near 200k last year and are back above 300k Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/chart-of-the-wee…
37
67
15
424
131,048
Anthony Wanger retweeted
Pretty cool - sankey diagram (power nerds know) for how $100 of AI capex flows Source: BNP* *Prior version said Bernstein; mixed up my Bs - idiot!
12
119
20
756
93,827
Anthony Wanger retweeted
Oh boy. $NVDA guided next year revenue growth to at least 70%. The street was at 44%.
114
292
48
3,751
282,054
Anthony Wanger retweeted
Delivery day at our Microsoft DCs as the first production Vera Rubins arrive. A huge thank you to our partners at @nvidia and our Azure hardware and datacenter teams for all the incredible work that brought us to this milestone!
387
700
231
8,164
1,598,816
Anthony Wanger retweeted
BTM is not a walk in the park! "In the U.S., there are four operational data centers with off-grid or partially grid-connected power, according to data provider Cleanview. These are xAI’s Colossus and Colossus II, Crusoe’s Stargate Abilene and Vantage Data Centers’ Vantage VA 2. Three of these have already had reported issues." >"Cracked turbines and broken engine cranks both are major failures that require replacement" >"In July, Vantage Data Centers experienced a critical power failure at its data-center campus in Loudoun County, Va., forcing the operator to switch over to diesel backup power for about a day" >"Big swings can stress and shorten the life of engines and turbines, and can even cause shaft fractures" >"Outages can also be costly for power providers. These providers typically don’t get paid for electricity they fail to provide, and in some cases must pay penalties for failing to deliver, according to industry experts. They are also typically on the hook for repairing and replacing broken power equipment." >"Power failures are the most acute risk, but a more insidious problem is if equipment keeps degrading more quickly than expected. Higher replacement costs would hurt power providers’ margins."
8
20
3
119
15,371
Anthony Wanger retweeted
If an alien visited earth and asked you: “Show me one chart that sits upstream of everything your species has accomplished or will ever accomplish.” What would you show them? I would show them the chart below. From my perspective, as long as we keep this chart going, we will figure it all out…
347
327
79
5,041
3,583,413
Anthony Wanger retweeted
GPU rental rates keep rising even as more capacity comes online Since January: > A100 rates are up 23%, from $1.30 to $1.60 per GPU-hour > H100 rates are up 25%, from $2.15 to $2.70 > B200 rates are up 27%, from $4.40 to $5.60, after briefly moving above $6 in March Even H200 pricing has increased from around $2.60 in May to roughly $3 today It’s strong evidence that, so far, there are no signs of overbuilding and that, if anything, there is still a GPU shortage The strength in A100 and H100 pricing is especially important. Better software and inference optimization are extending their useful lives and increasing the revenue generated per GPU, which could support depreciation schedules longer than three years
The chart is one of the clearest rebuttals to the claim that AI compute is already being overbuilt. GPU rental prices are not collapsing as new capacity comes online. They are rising across almost every generation. B200 rates have moved toward roughly $5.50 to $5.80 per GPU-hour, H200 rates are approaching $3, while even older H100 and A100 capacity continues to reprice upward. The most important signal is not the absolute premium on B200. It is that older chips are also becoming more expensive. If this were merely temporary excitement around the newest architecture, B200 prices could remain high while H100 and A100 rates declined as customers substituted toward newer hardware. Instead, demand appears broad enough to absorb new systems without materially weakening pricing for the installed base. That suggests the industry is constrained by total usable compute, not simply by access to the latest chip. This supports the argument that hyperscalers and neoclouds are currently under-earning on older contracts. Customers that secured GPU capacity in 2024 or 2025 at fixed rates are benefiting from pricing materially below today’s spot market. As those contracts expire, providers should have room to reprice capacity upward, improving cloud revenue and operating cash flow without requiring an equivalent increase in physical infrastructure. It also strengthens the Jevons paradox thesis. Chips and models are becoming more efficient, but lower cost per task is expanding the number of economically viable workloads. Enterprises are deploying more coding agents, research agents, video models, longer-context inference and autonomous workflows. Efficiency per token is improving, yet total compute consumption is rising faster. The investment implications remain constructive for $NVDA, HBM, networking, optical connectivity, cooling and power infrastructure. Rising rental prices indicate that the marginal value of energized compute remains high, which encourages operators to keep ordering equipment and accelerating data-centre deployment. However, investors should not assume that high rental prices automatically produce high returns for every neocloud. Realized economics still depend on utilization, financing costs, electricity, networking quality, customer concentration and hardware depreciation. A provider renting B200s at $5.60 per hour can still destroy equity if the machines sit idle, were financed expensively or require rapid replacement. The chart covers non-hyperscaler cloud providers, where spot pricing can be more volatile and scarcity premiums greater than in long-term enterprise contracts. It should therefore not be interpreted as the average rate across the entire market. But the direction is difficult to dismiss. The AI overcapacity thesis requires supply to begin outrunning demand. For now, the opposite appears to be happening. More GPUs are entering the market, yet the price of renting them continues to rise. The industry is not struggling to find workloads for its compute. It is still struggling to find enough compute for its workloads.
18
72
21
541
82,108
Anthony Wanger retweeted
Hyperscalers accelerating - $AMZN AWS : ~$169B run rate +37% YoY $MSFT Azure: ~$124B run rate +43% YoY $GOOGL Cloud: ~$99B run rate +82% YoY AI is a tailwind for the cloud giants
24
92
9
1,041
103,613
Anthony Wanger retweeted
Data centers barely use any water, barely use any land, and they lower electric bills.
467
2,109
307
14,749
1,315,587
Anthony Wanger retweeted
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: "We are at the beginning" of this technology cycle "Most technology cycles last anywhere from 10 to 15 years before it kind of plateaus. We are at the beginning of this one," the US chip giant's CEO told reporters in Tokyo. "Is it going to flatten out? It will never go down, just as electricity never went down," he said, adding that semiconductors will be the world's largest industry, as part of its "social fabric".
13
40
5
508
59,213
Anthony Wanger retweeted
In Virginia—the largest U.S. data center state—the industry supports over $1.5 billion annually in state tax revenue, more than 112,000 jobs and $40b in economic impact nvtc.org/press-releases/new-…
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has announced the nation's first moratorium on AI data centers.
257
354
35
2,481
254,664
Anthony Wanger retweeted
Data centers haven’t been raising residential bills. The sharpest increases are found in states that have pursued the country’s most aggressive climate policies, not those with the most data centers. California, with some of the nation’s fastest-rising electricity rates, has seen relatively modest data-center growth. Virginia, where data centers consume more than a fifth of the state’s electricity, has experienced price increases near the national average. @Shawn_Regan in the City Journal Substack: cityjournal.substack.com/p/d…
120
790
161
3,362
1,342,351
Anthony Wanger retweeted
Ken Griffin just priced a Taiwan invasion: US GDP down 8% in six months. A great depression, that fast. Griffin runs Citadel, one of the largest trading firms in the world, and he does not deal in hyperbole. Lose access to Taiwanese chips and Boeing stops making planes, most new cars stop, consumer electronics stop. $TSM sits in every high-end product, so the whole economy freezes at once. Dylan Patel @dylan522p of SemiAnalysis makes the same case: fab concentration in Taiwan is the choke point of the entire compute supply chain. If you hold semis or any global supply chain, this is the tail to size, and it is not the same loss for a US book and a European one. The full note maps where the sanctions coalition actually cracks: podcastalpha.substack.com/p/… Source: Goldman Sachs Exchanges - youtube.com/watch?v=gZweef8L…
31
88
22
740
308,401
Anthony Wanger retweeted
"More than 95% of the Grace-Blackwell GPUs have not yet been deployed, even though the chip has been shipping since December 2024. (h/t Air Street Press)" Seen via @azeem @ExponentialView
8
47
20
309
96,685
Anthony Wanger retweeted
I asked NVIDIA about this specific SemiAnalysis Kyber delay post: "Our roadmap is intact." - NVIDIA spokesperson
MASSIVE DELAY: Just 3 months after Jensen demoed Kyber NVL144 at GTC, it has faced major setbacks and has been delayed by more than 12 months, pushing it back to 2028. Below, we explain why Kyber has faced massive delays and why NVIDIA’s NVL72x2 back-to-back rack architecture was also cancelled, leaving Rubin Ultra with a limited scale-up domain. 👇️ 1/6🧵
23
29
7
408
73,225
Anthony Wanger retweeted
Nobody knows
"But a goal will not count if a player is offsides." "When is a player offsides?" "Whenever anything exciting happens."
306
2,041
55
42,623
1,763,118