@azeem

Exponential View @exponentialview.

2.718281828459045
Joined July 2007
The GenAI economy has generated $110 billion in sales over the past 12 months. It is growing fast. On an annualized basis, the revenue run rate exceeds $175 billion. These numbers took us several months to construct, and as far as we know, it’s the first bottom-up, deduplicated measure of consumer and enterprise AI spending across the full stack. We are releasing this research today in our first The State of the AI Economy report. intelligence.exponentialview…
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Azeem Azhar retweeted
Anthropic's marketing & comms team, if one exists, should take a really close look at this video & all that led up to this moment where their CEO is on SNL. Even assuming Anthropic truly believes 100% of what they say, they need to figure out a better way of communicating!
Dario Amodei is at the desk to assure that the future of humanity is safe from AI
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Same. If you spend less time writing it than it will take me to u der stand it…
please stop sending me your ai-generated decks. they smell like total lack of thought
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Azeem Azhar retweeted
Google has now added extensive high-resolution satellite imagery from early 2026 across most of southern Gaza. A total of 235km² from Jan (99 km²) and Feb (137 km²). Again, another example of the apocalyptic destruction, devastation and displacement brought by Israel to Gaza.
This shows the reality of Gaza in shocking resolution. I've scraped and exported all the imagery, totalling around 2.5 billion pixels at 13cm resolution, for safe keeping, in case they decide to take this imagery offline. If this happens, keep an eye out for access.
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Our annualised number is now $229bn (August). Historically, i.e. 24/25, a large part of AWS, Azure, etc. AI cloud revenue came from labs for training (i.e. their investment costs). But as you know, that ratio is moving towards 'real' customer spending--and quite rapidly--as inference exceeds training costs. If a large enterprise spends heavily with Anthropic via Bedrock, Anthropic will spend heavily on AWS in order to service that enterprise. That is probably reasonably counted as "real customer revenue" for AWS. (We deduplicate, of course.) It is also important to distinguish general tech company CapEx from AI capex. (I'm not sure Amazon's warehouse investments of c $35bn in 2026 should be added to the total.) More here investmentbrief.ai/p/revenue…
World seems to have woken up to the idea that AI capex actually needs a return at some point. People now realise that roughly $2-3trn of revenue will be needed annually, quite soon. But the conversation about what counts as "AI revenue" is still highly unsophisticated. People will say e.g. "Amazon's cloud business is doing really well, ergo AI is seeing great ROI". No. What you need is revenue EXTERNAL or DOWNSTREAM to the system, ie from ordinary businesses subscribing to models. @darioperkins good on this. A lot of Amazon cloud revenue is just Anthropic buying stuff How much is "proper" AI revenue? In the summer we made four estimates. We need more work to make these estimates better/more accurate! @hsu_steve @lugaricano @weakinstrument
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For Meta, Muse is a play to get marketing dollars. Zuckerberg told developers this week that Meta will “profit by taking a small fee from transactions”. Walmart, Best Buy, Sephora and Expedia have signed up. But is Muse my butler, or is it secretly working for Meta? That small fee, from merchant to Meta, is a big problem. The butler’s loyalty can’t be in two places. It will follow the coin... My commentary, open to all: exponentialview.co/p/meta-mu…
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Brutal!
In short is now load bearing.
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Azeem Azhar retweeted
We're starting to see some things *ORACLE SENDS FORCE MAJEURE NOTICE OVER NEW MEXICO DATA CENTER
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Azeem Azhar retweeted
Replying to @yipitdata
Super interesting! But isn't this just the economy? If they took a fixed $ from every worker in the US they'd be more concentrated than your number. Do you see higher/lower concentration among other companies you track?
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Azeem Azhar retweeted
My latest for @TheEconomist: AI writing is taking over politics. 10% of what was is said in Parliament is now AI-drafted, per Pangram. Yet more in the House of Representatives, or in Australia and Canada. Link: economist.com/britain/2026/0… And a 🧵 below, w/ some main offenders
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Run-roh.
Sources and Nscale's US SEC filings: ByteDance accounted for nearly 75% of Nscale's sales in 2025 and used Nscale's facility in Norway to access Nvidia AI chips (Financial Times) (Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)
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Azeem Azhar retweeted
One of the biggest questions in AI is whether we’re in a bubble. The company valuations are massive—not just for firms on the leading edge, but for ones that have little more than a name and an idea—and they’re all doing deals with one another. Lots of smart analysts say that we're in a moment that may resemble the 1920s, early 2000s, or 2008. This would not be good for our 401Ks and much else. On the other side you have people like @azeem, who, in June, released a report on the state of the AI economy. He and @ExponentialView dug into all of the available numbers, tracking and deduplicating every dollar. They looked at capex and revenue and token pricing and chip efficiency and competitive pressure from China and a host of other factors. Their conclusion was that the math should work out. This is a huge question: even if you believe in the power of technology, you can doubt the markets. Even if you doubt the technology, you can trust the signals that the markets are giving. So I sat down with Azeem to go through it all, testing all the best arguments I've heard about whether we're in a bubble and what could make it pop. I hope you watch and subscribe. youtube.com/watch?v=bI9mGMEa…
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Learn AI, make more money. 💸
AI-exposed jobs are seeing the largest pay growth in the US: Advertised pay in the most AI-exposed occupations has surged +46% since the start of 2021. At the same time, moderately AI-exposed jobs have seen +41% growth. This compares to a +39% increase in all US posted wages and just +25% for the least AI-exposed jobs. The gap began widening materially in mid-2025 and has continued to do so throughout this year. The divergence suggests employers are increasingly competing for workers in AI-related occupations. AI is reshaping the US compensation landscape.
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AGI they said.
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Azeem Azhar retweeted
U.S. labor productivity, 2013–2026: > Unremarkable growth for most of the 2010s > Breaks sharply higher starting 2020 > Now running 2.2% above where the old trend said we'd be The last time this happened was 1995–2004, when the internet added close to 3% a year for a full decade. Looks like we're a few years into the sequel.
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