Value investor. Istanbul. Nothing I post is investment advice. All my writeups are free. No paywalls. https://xitter.cf/t.co/vNBoJqnyTK
Switzerland
Joined March 2022
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AltayCap retweeted
This could be a HUGE boost to Japan's governance reforms, with potentially big implications for M&A
Japan eyes tax breaks for non-core business sales in governance reform push, sources say reuters.com/world/japan-eyes…
AltayCap retweeted
The anti-datacenter psychosis sweeping through both sides of our national politics might be the worst mass movement I've seen in my lifetime. The magnitude of lies underpinning it, the threat it poses to our economy and civilization, and the sheer scale of its popularity are totally unprecedented. It should be an enduring national shame that the country that invented the airplane, landed on the Moon, and created the Internet is descending into superstitious panic at the very moment growth matters most
AltayCap retweeted
Today we are launching our campaign to maximize corporate value at Dainichi Co (TSE: 5951), ダイニチ工業.
I will unpack the full case in due course but for all information, in English and Japanese, please visit unlockingdainichi.com
🇯🇵🇯🇵🙏🙏
AltayCap retweeted
$3791 IG Port is down 22% and I am glad I gave up on it. Thanks to @AltayCapital for taking the time to criticize my position, it made me rethink it and saved me some money.
I never understood why people get annoyed when you write something negative on a stock they own. If the opinion is made respectfully, it is genuinely useful. The whole point of posting a thesis publicly is to find out where it is wrong 🫡
Entertainment is becoming much harder than it looks. I stopped investing in gaming entirely a while ago, and anime looked like a real structural long-term trend so I made an exception, but the same lesson keeps showing up also in content: there is no moat here.
For years the strategy was to milk mature IP and ride sequels (every single one of 2024's top 10 US films was a sequel or prequel), but consumers want newness, and the cracks are now visible:
- Backrooms (A24, 20-year-old first-time director, original horror) just took #1 with $81.5M, biggest debut ever for an original horror film
- Obsession (26-year-old former YouTuber, also no IP behind it) took #2 with $26.4M in its third week
- Nintendo $7974.T just launched the fastest-selling console in its history and the stock is still down 50% from its 2025 peak, because the market is already pricing in next year's decline and the memory-cost squeeze. The Mario movie didn't help either.
Something is structurally broken.
The newness premium is real and even the strongest IP portfolio can't carry a stock through a single product cycle anymore, which means studios that bet everything on franchise leverage are now competing against fresh content that costs a fraction to make.
This is why I have now finally given up on $3791.T IG Port too. did nostalgia cloud my judgment? or I fell for "value" trap after stock halved? probably both. @AltayCapital was right all along, the Japanese IP conglomerates have incredible assets but awful execution, and the Kadokawa CEO himself is publicly saying the industry is "going to be hollowed out" without consolidation. Content is no different from any other consumer category 🫡
AltayCap retweeted
Old dog (value investor) can't learn new tricks. So just go to the market (Japan) where you can actually make some money?
AltayCap retweeted
$4628 Sk Kaken thesis:
1. The stock is currently a modest value trap. 10x earnigns with a 2% dividend that has been going up with Japan's shareholder pressure campaign. I'll arbitrarily assume that'll normalize to a 3% dividend on average - sometimes it'll be a bit worse, sometimes a bit better, but that's a fine guess. On top of that, the cash pile will grow with earings which you can discount say 70%, so another 3%. Total is a low downside risk 6%/year expected return. Not great, but honestly not that bad.
2. Founder/family control is the blocker. Shikoku Kousan owns 31.88%, and Fujii Minoru, Fujii Kunihiro, and Fujii Mitsuhiro own another roughly 9.3%, so the Fujii-side block is about 41% excluding treasury shares. The company also has 2.18m treasury shares, about 13.9% of issued shares, with no votes.
3. The relevant entity is 四国興産有限会社 / Shikoku Kousan, located in Takarazuka, Hyogo. It is listed as established on September 1, 1998, so as of June 16, 2026, it is 27 years and about 9.5 months old.
That is much younger than SK Kaken itself, which was founded in 1955 and incorporated in 1958.
4. The patriarch is almost certainly Fujii Minoru, the SK Kaken founder. He is 93, turning 94 on September 1, 2026.
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Heads you get a safe 6%/year turn.
Tails, the patriarch passes away and you get a 15%+/year expected return. If you assign even 30% odds to tails, this is a fantastic risk adjusted bet.
If the patriarch was even 10 years younger, that looks far more questionable.
If anyone else has these age-as-a-catalyst plays, please comment or DM me.
AltayCap retweeted
Been reviewing Japanese longs all morning.
Look at this example Tanabe Engineering $1828. It now trades for 7x earnings with 16% return on capital. It has a 4.5% dividend yield. They tripled operating income in a decade.
There are so many companies like this, from unrelated industries, that peaked exactly at the end of February.
This type of small cap Japanese value / GARP stock is in a bear market. This one had a 25% drawdown.
AltayCap retweeted
I sat down with Taiwanese investor @DaBao_ in his first-ever recorded video interview
Key takeaways:
- The Taiwanese stock market is becoming overheated
- He likes companies that offer mission-critical services
- TSMC's story is intact
- The Taiwan invasion threat is overblown
AltayCap retweeted
One of my favourite Japanese ideas is Kitazato corp $368A. Founder led, Japanese company with a large (30% ex US) market share in IVF fertility treatment. Large tailwinds as popularity of IVF continues to grow. The co has been smashed down 25% from IPO last year. This isn't an
AltayCap retweeted
The First episode of the Made in Japan podcast is finally out. (Link in reply)
We felt our interview with Philip was going to be the perfect first episode as an introduction to Japanese markets.
Over the last 2 decades, he’s seen the country as a lawyer, investment banker and now an investor. He’s worked with truly the pioneers of Japanese activist investing like Yoshiaki Murakami of M&A Consulting and Seth Fischer of Oasis.
Through his adventures not just in Japan but in East Asia, he has so many interesting stories to tell!
We learnt
⚪︎Why Activism Struggled in the past and why that’s changing
⚪︎Why Activism, and Japan, is still a huge opportunity today
⚪︎Some of the misconceptions of Activism
⚪︎Japan’s unique business culture and how Japanese companies think about M&A
⚪︎And some of his favourite things to do in Japan!
We still have alot to improve on so we’d love to hear your feedback, thoughts or suggestions if you have any!! Or even any guests that you’d want us to interview!
We hope you enjoy this conversation. If you liked it and want to hear more, we would really appreciate it if you like this post, retweet, and subscribe!
Thank you for your interest and support ♥️🎌
Finally a special thank you to the people around us who’s been so encouraging and supportive for this project. Ben and I still have no idea where this’ll go but we hope to bring some unique perspectives!
AltayCap retweeted
If you're interested and driven, why look anywhere else?
Build a healthy level of cash savings so liquidity is an asset instead of a liability.
Then focus your efforts here:
AltayCap retweeted
The incredible part abt Saize isn’t the quality/price ratio of the food.
It’s the fact that they think from first principles. Which other large casual restaurant do you know own their farm and selectively breed their lettuce to best suit their dishes???
AltayCap retweeted
BUFFETT* IS BACK: Berkshire unveils its latest Japanese investment, taking a 2.5% in insurer Tokio Marine
(* Technically he stepped down as CEO last year but he's still around as chairman)
