@AllegedlyGelo

bettor of nfl futures | PM focused | leans heavily niners in the fall

Joined August 2023
  • Tweets2.6K
  • Following221
  • Followers285
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Niners go WR... almost all outs had +400 or better going into last night. Market simply does not understand the psychology of Lynch/Shanahan brain trust.
Gelo
@AllegedlyGeloApr 23
Here is how I model the position of the Niners 1st pick: WR: 32% OL: 27% DL: 23% DB: 13% Other: 5% I already have a massive position on Yes-WR around 17% avg cost. If anyone wants to Trade Yes-Oline... I have posted a healthy make order on Klashi.
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For the record, if Osa was living up to the 3rd round pick the Niners traded for him, we wouldn’t be pursuing D Buckner. My guess is Buckner and Halton are the starting DTs for the NFC Championship game.
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Mr Mays you make me laugh xitter.cf/sfdata9ers/status/2113…
Robert Mays@robertmaysOct 23
It's so hilarious that people spent actual time arguing this week about whether Caleb Williams was some kind of check-down artist.
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A third through the season, here's where I think things land: NFC 1. Niners 2. Bears 3. Falcons 4. Cowboys 5. Vikings 6. Seahawks 7. Packers wc: chi>gb, sea>atl, min>dal dr: sf> sea, chi>min nfcc: sf>chi AFC 1. BUF 2. KC 3. BAL 4. JAX 5. NE 6. HOU 7. DEN wc: kc>den, bal>hou, jax>ne dr: buf>jax, bal>kv afcc: buf>bal SB: SF>BUF
NFL
@NFLOct 20
Checking in on the standings after 6️⃣ weeks
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Ahead of tonight's game... Top 25 QBs in league, not including 2024 draft class: 1. Josh Allen -- 2. Patrick Mahomes 3. Lamar Jackson 4. Joe Burrow -- 5. Brock Purdy 6. Dak Prescott 7. Jared Goff 8. Matthew Stafford 9. Jordan Love -- 10. Justin Herbert 11. CJ Stroud 12. Trevor Lawrence 13. Bryce Young -- 14. Jalen Hurts 15. Tyler Shough 16. Baker Mayfield 17. Sam Darnold -- 18. Kyler Murray 19. Jacoby Brisset 20. Geno Smith 21. Aaron Rodgers 22. Mac Jones 23. Kirk Cousins 24. Daniel Jones 25. Malik Willis
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Steve Wilks likely cost the Niners a SB. At this point, one of worst defensive coaches... that keeps getting jobs. The Adam Gase of DCs
Mike Garafolo
@MikeGarafoloOct 21
The #Commanders have hired Steve Wilks to work with the defensive coaches under Dan Quinn and Daronte Jones, per me and @RapSheet. The decision to hire Wilks was made last month. He started last week. Wilks will help with game planning. He won't be with the team on game days.
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Fitzpatrick is right... Peyton called a really good game imo... Nix is actively holding this team back. He had multiple chances to run for a first down and dove short.
Ari Meirov
@MySportsUpdateOct 16
Ryan Fitzpatrick just went on a rant ripping #Broncos QB Bo Nix: “Bo Nix is not playing competitively. It’s almost disrespectful to the quarterback position how he’s playing football.” (🎥 @NFLonPrime)
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Rarely tweet about mainstream nfl discussion, but this is a great barometer for who knows ball: Trent Williams + Fred Warner could retire after this season and they are HOFers. George Kittle + Mike Evans are very likely HOFers CMC is not guaranteed in, but I'd have him likely to make it after another couple good seasons. Bosa needs another DPOY and couple All Pro seasons. Possible but not surefire.
Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefterOct 14
No NFL team has more surefire future Hall of Famers than the San Francisco 49ers. Cc: @tyschmit 🎧 open.spotify.com/episode/03z…
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Update thru 5 games of relatively even personell: +.074/ play (~50th percentile) +2.76 CPOE (~60th percentile) QBR: 64.9 (QB avg is 50-55) PFF: 69.9 (QB avg is 60)
Gelo
@AllegedlyGeloOct 6
This Narrative is massively overblown. The personnel mismatch in the two Jan 2025 games (within 2 weeks of each other) was tremendous. After removing the 2 games from this Jan, in 4 games against Macdonald's defense Purdy has averaged: --> +.12 EPA/play --> +2.1 CPOE --> QBR: 65.6 (QB avg is 50-55) --> PFF: 68.6 (QB avg is 60) This includes Purdy's worse game of his career.
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Best Deep Ball in the game.
Nate Tice
@Nate_TiceOct 12
Jordan Love's 2nd TD to Christian Watson traveled 66.9 yards in the air. It's the 3rd-longest completed throw in terms of air yards in the NFL since 2016, per @NextGenStats.
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Other than bad-luck injuries, the biggest threat to this Niners team is the Special Teams. - Eddy P is off to a slowww start - Deebo has a fumble problem - Punt return team is very weak... old habits die hard - Waitman in lone bright spot
Gelo
@AllegedlyGeloOct 1
5 reasons Niners DON'T win SB: 1. Cluster injuries 2. NFC West / Nov-Dec schedule (tough path to 1 seed) 3. Special Teams returns to pre-2025 form 4. Poor Run-Defense is deathwish 5. Shanahan's insistence on poor in-game decision making
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Purdy and co. have 10 big tests this regular season: 1. Rams, grade: A 2. @ SEA, grade: B 3. WAS (MNF) 4. @ DAL 5. MIN (SNF) 6. SEA 7. LAR 8. @ LAC (TNF) 9. @ KC 10. PHI (SNF) Purdy's MVP case gets decided in these 10 games... prob can't afford a bad night and a loss to PHI in January.
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That game had about 4 massive coinflip calls, first three went seatte's way until that last play.. the most notable calls were grounding that forced 1st & forever and the deebo fumble.
Ryan Paganetti
@RyanPaganettiOct 11
Nothing like a ref who has zero angle of where the ball is marking the ball incorrectly on a 4th down game ending play. Rough for Seahawks. I think he got it, will be hard to overturn.
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5th drop of the season for Purdy... 4 of them on 3rd downs.
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Niner's won't play a road primetime Road Game all year... maybe this is the year Brock wins MVP
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The subtleties.
Film Watchers
@Filmwatchers1Oct 7
Brock Purdy is my MVP pick thru 4 weeks
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📢
Akash Anavarathan
@akashanavOct 8
Replying to @Steph49K
Ironically I think it comes down to how well the 49ers can run against Seattle’s nickel, 2-shell defense
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Roseman shows us the advantage of having job security here. Not too many GMs are trading away a solid center one day after losing a HOFer at tackle. But this is clearly +ev for Eagles long term.
Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefterOct 7
Trade: Eagles are sending two-time Pro Bowl center Cam Jurgens and a 2027 7th-round pick to the Ravens in exchange for a 2027 5th-round pick and a 2028 2nd-round pick, sources tell ESPN.
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This Narrative is massively overblown. The personnel mismatch in the two Jan 2025 games (within 2 weeks of each other) was tremendous. After removing the 2 games from this Jan, in 4 games against Macdonald's defense Purdy has averaged: --> +.12 EPA/play --> +2.1 CPOE --> QBR: 65.6 (QB avg is 50-55) --> PFF: 68.6 (QB avg is 60) This includes Purdy's worse game of his career.
Josh Dubow
@JoshDubowAPOct 6
#49ers QB Brock Purdy has a 75.8 passer rating in 6 games (playoffs included) against a Mike Macdonald defense (5 vs Seahawks and 1 as DC with Ravens) Purdy has a 105.8 passer rating in every other game of his career (playoffs included)
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NFL Head Coach Rankings 2026 (1.0): HOFer: 1. Kyle Shanahan 2. Sean Mcvay 3. Mike Macdonald 4. Ben Johnson 5. Andy Reid --- Elite: 6. Kevin O'Connell 7. Liam Cohen 8. Sean Payton 9. Shane Steichen --- Add Value: 10. Matt Lafleur 11. Kellen Moore 12. Dave Canales 13. Dan Campbell 14. Jim Harbaugh 15. John Harbaugh 17. Kevin Stefanski 18. Demeco Ryans --- Ehh: 19. Mike Vrabel 20. Zac Taylor 21. Robert Salah --- Should/will be fired: 22. Dan Quinn 23. Brian Schottenheimer 24. Nick Sirianni 25. Todd Bowles 26. Aaron Glenn --- First Time HC: 1. Klint Kubiak 2. Joe Brady 3. Jesse Minter 4. Mike Lafleur 5. Todd Monken 6. Jeff Hafley
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What a fascinating era of NFL football. You have the 4 clear tier 1 QBs in the AFC and the 4 clear tier 1 head coaches in the NFC. Unironically, the top 7 teams per Superbowl odds come from this list.
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