#Heuristics My portfolio is also bleeding. And yet, a slow, Chinese-water-torture-style correction may help wash away the last remaining survivors of the COVID-era fast-recovery expectations. Slow bleed, longer bleed … Sometimes, you don't need to become stronger. You just need to survive. Datey Raho!

Solara’s “Active” may stay “Dormant” with IBU.

The market doesn't always reward the best business. It rewards the business with the best rate of change. IT/SaaS - recent example! Bad to fair = positive rate of change. Good to better = positive rate of change. Great to slightly less great = negative rate of change. That last one is where CDMO investors need to be careful. Full framework later today.

The quality of what you own and what you tweet will not be determined by how hard they fall when the Nasdaq falls 30–50%. It will be determined by what happens next: how quickly they recover, reclaim the old high, and make a new one. Anyone can look antifragile in a rising market. The real test begins after the fall.

Reminder: This is not investment advice or a recommendation. But after CPHI discussions with EU and Chinese players, I’m more bullish than ever!

Thanks for kind words a) reasonably positive on all three, but for different reasons and with different levels of proof. Syngene: same template as yesterday’s note. Science and capability take decades to build. A commercial engine takes far less. Invested. Not a recommendation. Details 👇 antifragilethinking.substack… b) Cohance: Umang is the key person. While he’s leading, there’s real hope. But that’s also the key risk: one person carrying the turnaround. Invested. Biased. Not a recommendation c) PI Industries: not invested yet. I’m waiting for proof that pharma CDMO can scale beyond agrochemicals, which is what I asked Mayank about on the Q4 FY26 call. He has a soul in the game and was at the stand himself, talking to customers. It was somewhat busy when I was there. That counts for something. Disclaimer: Not for you @ishmohit1, as you know the game, but for others – please do your own research and consult a SEBI-approved advisor before trading in any of these.

Happy to answer any questions about CPHI Milan. This thread will close in 60 mins. Restrict to one question per participant, so I can answer as many as I can. Thanks. CPHI Milan 2026 👇🏾

Elon Musk is wasting time on petty tweets while HDFC Bank is at multi year lows, and @contrarianEPS owns it too. What more can one ask for 😎

CPHI Milan 2026 – An Exclusive Dinner & Dance Evening Hosted by Laurus Labs Every conversation was worth its weight in gold. What impressed me most was the respect extended to everyone, including suppliers, many of them Chinese, who were treated with the same regard as innovators. I may well have been the only non-employee shareholder in the room, which made the evening all the more special. It was a true privilege to interact with some of the finest minds in the pharmaceutical industry. Thank you, Dr Satya, for the kind invitation. 🙏🏻 @LaurusLabs

Non-CDMO Pharma today has better value compared to fake CDMOs (pinned X). Will buy 2 such tomorrow. No nonsense. No CDMO. Simple valuations. Simple management.

Day 1 morning at CPHI Milan 2026. The focus: manufacturing 5.0, fooled by the randomness of KPIs and agile/small CDMOs vs bigger CRDMOs. But the real value of these open-space theatre sessions is being able to question industry veterans directly and test your mental models against people who have lived the industry. That is how you learn. Amazing CPHI Milan 2026.