The Universal Procrastinational Constant retweeted
a lot of investors ask me "what if china does this?"
here's the secret: it doesn't matter.
we will live in a multipolar world. they cannot under any circumstances be allowed to become the world's factory. it's that simple.
we have no choice anymore, build or die.
Marotta MV-524 spotted @Solenoidfan
Replying to @mcrs987
They flew a small hopper vehicle and this chunky one as testbeds. Did tethered flight tests, some from the ground and some while suspended midair by the gantry, some even dropped by it Seemingly also flew a prototype more akin to the actual car (re: earlier shadows) but we don't have internal photos of that. 1st video is explicitly a test of that first hopper all the way back actually exactly 1 year ago today, oct 15 2025. Not sure if it was the first test ever but it was that small vehicle. The same vehicle was seen back in july 2025 at this same site tied up to a smaller, non-tarped gantry seen in flyover photos.
Wasn't able to nail down the time span of the testing of that chunky one. Likely before April 2026 though. Have observed at least 3 tests between May and June 2026 within this tent
The Universal Procrastinational Constant retweeted
"Why did they waste so much time making a flying car no one can use in the real world?"
Because not everything is about whether you can imagine it being useful to you. Because like art, sometimes we make things for the glory and challenge of making them. Because we don't know if what we'll learn will make your toaster work better and you'll never realize it because you take for granted that things get better without thinking through how that happens. Because you can't inspire people with toasters, but a barrel-rolling car that can drive upside down is absolutely setting someone on fire right now.
I'm not a car person and you shouldn't trust me with a rocket, but I want a roadster because I make art and that thing is absolutely a thing made for love and passion and I get that in my heart.
(Also because I'd look really cool in one.)🤣
The Universal Procrastinational Constant retweeted
i’d like to formally apologize to the welders, machinists and technicians for the decades of absolute horseshit i’ve put into part and assembly drawings
On the third day the Lord made flat plate bolted joint close fit construction, and it was good
The Universal Procrastinational Constant retweeted
SpaceX alums are distributing themselves throughout the advanced nuclear energy industry. It's hard to remember the last time I reviewed a pitch deck for a nuclear start-up whose team did not include at least one former SpaceX member.
This trend excites me and gives hope for continuing improvements.
@multiplanet1 offers an explanation supporting my optimism.
A retired NASA engineer who had worked on the Space Shuttle program for 25 years was hired by SpaceX at age 62. He described the first week as the most disorienting experience of his professional life.
At NASA, a design change required 3 meetings, 2 committees, a review board, and 6 to 18 months of documentation. At SpaceX, his new supervisor said "if it works, build it. If it doesn't, change it by Friday."
He sat at his desk after the first day and called his wife. He told her he felt like a man who had been swimming with ankle weights for 25 years and someone just cut them off. He could move. He could decide. He could build something in the morning and test it in the afternoon. The constraint that he had accepted as the nature of aerospace engineering turned out to be the nature of bureaucracy.
Within 6 months he had contributed to more design iterations than he had completed in his last 5 years at NASA. Not because he was working harder. Because the time between having an idea and testing the idea collapsed from months to hours. The same brain. The same knowledge. A different operating system.
He described a specific moment where he proposed a modification to a Raptor engine component. At NASA, the proposal would have entered a queue. At SpaceX, the modification was machined by the end of the day and tested by the following morning. He watched his idea become a physical object in 18 hours. At NASA, 18 hours would not have been enough to schedule the first meeting to discuss whether to schedule a meeting.
He told an interviewer: "I didn't get smarter when I went to SpaceX. I got faster. The intelligence was always there. The system was in the way."
The difference between SpaceX and NASA is not talent. NASA has extraordinary talent. The difference is the time between a thought and a test. SpaceX compresses it. NASA elongates it. The same engineer produces 10x more at SpaceX than at NASA because the bottleneck was never the engineer. It was the meetings about the meetings about the work.
They really cut the McMaster air accumulator in half for a vacuum bell 😅
Just finished my first week at @blueorigin - how much fun! At times, I felt like I was drinking from a firehose as I got to know the Advanced Concepts portfolio (in the best way!).
I learned about AI-enabled surface robots on the Moon, building solar cells from lunar regolith, Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) that help humans survive in space, and developments for human spaceflight technologies. Most importantly, I met the amazing team that does this and so much more. I am excited for week #2 and many more to come.
Delightfully counterintuitive
Interesting paper on how the economically rational price for Starship launches is likely to be much higher than many assume rationalfutures.com/2025/10/…
Related:
The government is filling up the launch manifests for these new non-SpaceX rockets (Neutron, Nova, New Glenn, Eclipse) fast
And rocket companies are going to prioritize these govt. missions (higher margin)
And internal payloads (looking at you Neutron <> Iridium, and New Glenn <> TeraWave/Project Sunrise)
And pre-existing bulk launch contracts (looking at you New Glenn <> Amazon Leo)
Over commerical launch
Add in the fact that most of these rockets have yet to launch. And ramping them will take years and years.
This makes for a pretty miserable setup for the customer lowest on the totem pole: commercial satellite operators (dedicated launch + rideshare)
As the government leapfrogs them to secure more and more launch, commercial satellite launch will continue to get bumped further and further back.
So, for example, if you are a company that was banking on 2030 as the year they can be confident these rockets will come online and launch supply will be broadly back, you may now have to move that estimate to 2031. Which has tremendous commercial + capital implications.
This is need tech, and modularity is important to an extent, but man … the robotic online maintenance feels highly complex.
Replying to @Scobleizer
Elon made some of the key technical decisions and still does to this day. We meet with him weekly (often more frequently). He goes deep with the team and contributes significantly. I don’t know how he does this, but he just makes it happen. Consistently for the past 10 years, and I don’t see this changing.
Will posit, too, that avionics had not caught up to propulsion at the time of D-21 … much more interesting proposition with modern electronics
The Universal Procrastinational Constant retweeted
watching my friends and former coworkers in an in-flight movie while using the wifi from their satellites
Many such cases
Gavin Baker says the physics PhDs calling orbital data centers impossible on X have not out-thought the 10,000 SpaceX engineers who treat it as solved
"It's very hard for me to engage. There are all these people on X and they're like, I am a physics PhD and this is impossible."
"There's a friend, another investor, who actually is a physics PhD, who I had many arguments about it with him, and he's like, I am a PhD and this is impossible. And then he goes to the SpaceX day and talks to the SpaceX engineers, and he's like, well, I was wrong."
"So let's say you're an astrophysics PhD. You are brilliant, you're hanging 100 IQ points on me. Have you thought about this for an hour? Have you thought about it for 10 hours?"
"Because you have 10,000 of the world's smartest engineers at SpaceX who've thought about this each for hundreds if not thousands of hours. And the sum of that, working with very sophisticated engineering tools, is it's a solved problem."
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For more on Gavin Baker: firesidealpha.substack.com/p…







































