@326Pols

Political polling analysis and data visualisation. Created by @patrickjfl.

 London, England
Joined October 2018
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325Media
Conservative leadership election endorsement leaderboard, coloured by who MPs backed in July. Rishi Sunak: 38 Boris Johnson: 37 Penny Mordaunt: 15 90 / 357 MPs (25%) have endorsed a candidate so far.
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Hey everyone, I haven’t posted on here in a while, but for the time being some of my forecasting work is over at @patrickjfl, so be sure to give me a follow if you haven’t already!
Patrick Flynn@patrickjfl11 Jul 2022
NEW: My first 2022 Conservative leadership election forecast. I project that Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt will advance to the members' ballot, with a clear gap to Liz Truss in 3rd. In 2019, my top three forecast was out by just one vote; here's hoping for a similar result!
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Looks like I might have to start creating another political compass of Conservative MPs...
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NEW: Labour now hold their largest poll lead over the Conservatives since the 2019 election. Poll averages (vs. 11 Nov) LAB: 37% (+2) CON: 35% (-2) LDM: 9% (-) GRN: 7% (-2) RFM: 5% (+2) 2024 forecast (vs. 2019) CON: 40% (-4) LAB: 35% (+2) LDM: 8% (-4) GRN: 6% (+3) RFM: 4% (+2)
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#NewProfilePic
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NEW: UK polling averages, now including forecasted next election vote shares. Current polls (vs. 2019) CON: 37% (-7) LAB: 35% (+2) GRN: 9% (+6) LDM: 9% (-3) RFM: 4% (+2) Forecast CON: 41% (-4) LAB: 35% (+2) GRN: 8% (+5) LDM: 8% (-4) RFM: 3% (+1)
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As you can see, despite the polling average since 2019 ranging from a 21-point CON lead to a narrow LAB lead, the range of forecasted vote shares for the next election has remained narrow (CON 40–43%, LAB 34–37%).
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Though the polls are now quite narrow, the Conservatives would still be expected to extend their lead by the next election, based on historical trends.
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💥 2021 German federal election final forecast 💥 Vote shares (change since 2017) SPD: 25.3% (+4.8) CDU: 22.4% (-10.6) GRN: 15.7% (+6.8) FDP: 11.6% (+0.8) AFD: 10.6% (-2.0) LNK: 6.4% (-2.9) Next Chancellor Olaf Scholz: 67% Armin Laschet: 32% Annalena Baerbock: 1%
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Chances of each party being in the next government GRN: 85% SPD: 73% FDP: 62% CDU: 46% LNK: 21% AFD: 0%
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With Keir Starmer set to try and change Labour's leadership election rules and revert to a system where party members, unions and MPs all get 1/3 of the vote, I've done some rough calculations to estimate results of the last three leadership elections under this system. (THREAD)
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2020 Labour leadership election Keir Starmer: 55% (-1) Rebecca Long-Bailey: 25% (-3) Lisa Nandy: 20% (+4) Keir Starmer elected leader.
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For these estimates, I tried to find as much info on MPs' endorsements as possible, as some MPs nominated candidates they didn't support to ensure they got on the ballot. I also used YouGov's polling data to estimate vote transfers in the 2015 election.
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Our latest forecast for next Sunday's federal election in Germany makes the SPD the likely largest party, with an SPD/Green/FDP coalition the most likely government. Vote shares (+/- vs 2017) SPD: 26% (+5) CDU: 21% (-12) GRN: 16% (+7) FDP: 12% (+1) AFD: 11% (-2) LNK: 6% (-3)
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Latest forecast for next month's German federal election Vote shares (change with 2017) CDU: 23% (-10) SPD: 21% (-) GRN: 18% (+9) FDP: 13% (+2) AFD: 11% (-2) LNK: 7% (-2)
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Hey everyone, it's been a while! I decided to study the impact of false recall on polling this week and found that pollsters that don't account for it tend to show overly-stable poll numbers. A simple polling average thus underestimates the real volatility of public opinion.
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