We are in what's called the winner's curse phase of the RE cycle. @Phil_J_Anderson wrote the book on the US RE cycle (excellent book on the history of the cycle in the US).
Copper peaks late in the cycle and is a chart I like to look at from time to time.
Followed by the top in land prices at the top of the RE cycle comes the top in the stock market.
The takeaway: we are most likely in the late stages of this bull cycle.
Two books worth reading on the RE cycle:
Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking (Phil Anderson)
The Secret Wealth Advantage (Akhil Patel @AkhilGPatel)
#realestate #stockmarket
Did you know? When copper prices soar, you can’t afford a house.
It sounds surprising, but it’s a proven historical rule from Phil Anderson’s The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking.
How do we know this? Just look at history.
At the end of every 18.6-year real estate cycle (like 1989–1990 and 2007–2008), construction, power grid expansion, and speculative building hit a fever pitch.
As Phil explains in his book, copper prices skyrocket at the exact moment land values reach their absolute peak, driving raw material costs through the roof.
What happens when copper finally falls?
Raw material input costs drop, construction costs ease, and housing affordability gradually resets.
Watch Copper - it tells you when the land mania has hit its limit and when affordability is returning.
S&P looking for a swing bottom, and potentially a significant low before the end of the year, two days before the next timing date and at a weekly timing date as well.
Bouncing off of and holding this 50% at 7565 will be important.
Just need to see the trends turn up and then i would expect a strong close to the year.
#stockmarket #stocks
S&P with high volume down into the 50% right around the timing dates I mentioned (actually the timing analysis is both on the daily and weekly which adds more weight to it) so watching to see if this is turns into a significant low.
Note the high volume bar and the bounce off the 50%. Would like to have seen a bit stronger of a close but the volume and volatility are still what I'm watching for.
So far the difference indices roadmaps are holding up with cycles I'm watching but they need to hold up from here.
#stockmarket #SPX
hyperliquid:native bouncing off the range 50%. Holding above that and looking for it to retest the highs.
If it breaks into new ATH then I'm watching $100 for the psychological level and above that $109 and $120 as potential resistance areas.
There's a bit of confluence with both 109 and 120, which gives more importance to them.
#hype #altcoins
Stocks:
one of the cycles I'm following on the Nasdaq has a low on the 29th of Oct. It's been following the cycle pretty closely since beginning of Sept and if it holds through the end of this year should see a strong nov/dec. But needs to bounce soon.
S&P testing an important 50% and some previous lows.
Nasdaq has broken some previous swing lows and now at a previous weekly swing low.
DJI holding up the best and also sitting on a 50% and some prior lows.
Bitcoin:
We are between two important timing dates (29th and 1st) with another one on the 5th. So watching for signs of a bottom around these dates.
Bitcoin coming into support areas i've mentioned around 75k, below that 71k - 72.5k and finally 67k - 69k. Don't want to see it fall below 67k.
#bitcoin #btc #stockmarket #stocks
At a key timing date today, see if a swing low is formed and thus a higher low on the daily. Then price just needs to get back above 82k. That would put the Oct 24th low close to another key timing date I was watching for a potential correction low.
If 82k fails and price heads back down then I'll start looking out to the next dates and that could mean the low is not in yet.
Volume has also not been what I'd like to see at a low but I'll let the pa lead the way.
82k is the important level for now.
#bitcoin #btc
Bitcoin trying to hold support around some previous swing tops around 79k.5 and coming into a full moon (26th) close to perigee (28th).
The next major timing dates are the 29th and 1st. This week could be interesting with these dates and with it now in a downtrend on the weekly.
Let's see what price does this coming week. Watching to see if at least a swing low is formed around this full moon and if price continues trending down going into the end of the week then watching for a more significant low.
Levels I'm watching to the downside:
78k
75k
69k - 72.6k
67k
#bitcoin #btc
Both the SPX and NDX at a key timing date, see if they form another low here.
Bitcoin is also at a timing date (21st) though with swing highs and lows right around it but a swing high right on it. Could still be some more downside left. Maybe something like this:
#bitcoin #btc #StockMarket
With the recent pullback Bitcoin has likely finished the 5 wave structure from the low and potentially reached the top of the first wave out of the low assuming the cycle low is in. This will be invalidated if the 87k top is broken.
If this is the case then it is in a wave 2 correction which should see a ABC wave structure.
The main support level right now I'm watching is 81.2k - 82k, failing that area then 78k is the next major support area. Below are the main support areas I'm watching:
81.2k - 82k: 81.2 50%, 82k close to weekly swing high
78k: 50% from 98k - 58k and 50 week moving average
75k: weekly swing low
72.5k: 50% of this run up to 87k
71k: 50% of ATH to 58k
67k: breakout price level I don't want to see Bitcoin go back below
#bitcoin #btc
NDX so far unable to hold above the 50% fib extension. It was at both time and price resistance going into the this week so I was looking to see if could break and hold or if it would reject here. See how the weekly closed tomorrow.
A couple of the cycle roadmaps I'm following had the market heading down into the first or second week of October, followed by a move up to end the year. Let's see if that is how it plays out.
Also note that the DJI is at a timing date today.
#stockmarket
Bitcoin had a swing bottom almost on the 29th date and now heading back up into the previous top at 87.4k a day from the next timing date.
Let's see if Bitcoin can break out and head for the next resistance area or will we see another top today/tomorrow.
Next date I'm watching is the 14th.
#bitcoin #btc
#SPX put in a swing top right on the seasonal date. These can often mark turns in the market. Let's see if this starts the pullback into october that my cyclical roadmap is showing.
If it does follow the roadmap the most likely scenario is a pullback for a higher weekly low sometime after the first week of October around the 8th.
#stockmarkets
Bitcoin coming into a lot of time resistance, almost every couple days but the most important dates I'm watching are:
22nd: Equinox
27th, 29th, 3rd: key timing dates
At the same time it is sitting right under key resistance at the recent high of 81.5k and 83k.
So both time and price resistance with the next overhead resistance around 84k-87k.
If Bitcoin can push past 83k in the next week I think it can push up to 87k and if it does this around one of these dates I'll be watching for signs of a top.
This could potentially complete the 5 wave structure I posted about and potentially be the end of the macro wave 1 out of the bear market low if the low is in.
#bitcoin #btc
Some Elliot wave analysis on Bitcoin. If the low is in this could be the 1st wave out of the low and within that wave 1 I think bitcoin could be in a wave 4 correction (waves within waves).
Of note, the Sept 3rd timing date looks to have potentially marked a more significant top, maybe the wave 3 top.
Still have some timing dates coming up and so watching price action going into those dates.
#bitcoin #btc
