@0xfischer

running simulations, occasionally correct

Joined February 2025
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Zohran Mamdani sealed his mayoral victory in New York City with gains in several key areas. Here are some notable takeaways. on.wsj.com/4nGMGP4

The Voters Who Propelled Mamdani to Victory

Zohran Mamdani sealed his mayoral victory in New York City with gains in several key areas. Here are some notable takeaways.

wsj.com
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FED'S MIRAN: I WOULD THINK IT'S STILL REASONABLE TO CONTINUE RATE CUTS
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SHEIN SAYS IT IS TEMPORARILY SUSPENDING MARKETPLACE SALES IN FRANCE
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The stock market is back to “Extreme Fear.” Once again, this is NOT what you see before a crash with the S&P 500 2% away from all time highs.
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Important implications for vol traders xitter.cf/MacroAlf/status/194800…
Alf
@MacroAlf23 Jul 2025
Everyone obsesses about US fiscal, but the pivot from austere budgets to fiscal spending in Europe and Asia is equally important. Fiscal deficits are a global phenomenon now, and that’s the real news.
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Great thread on market microstructure xitter.cf/FT/status/198604049783…
Financial Times
@FT5 Nov 2025
Mamdani and the new challenge for nation states on.ft.com/3JGY4w9 | opinion

Mamdani and the new challenge for nation states

The metropolis and the heartland provoke each other into extremes, as the New York mayoral race shows

ft.com
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McDonald's, $MCD, CEO said today that: "traffic from lower-income consumers declining nearly double digits" in Q3 while "traffic growth among higher-income consumers remains strong, increasing nearly double digits in the quarter."
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Recently, a lot of people asked me a lot of questions about gold, so I invited anyone who cared to ask me questions about gold to do so, and I answered most of them.   But I also wanted to share the most important things I think about gold in a nutshell, which is the purpose of this article.  As always, I’d love to hear any questions you have or you can ask my AI Twin questions directly. xitter.cf/RayDalio/status/198395…
Ray Dalio
@RayDalio30 Oct 2025

Gold is the Safest Money

Article · @RayDalio
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*LEAVITT: BIG TRUMP SPEECH AT 1PM EST WILL BE ABOUT THE ECONOMY
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Market sentiment is in fear on Unusual Whales:
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From @WSJopinion: In enacting IEEPA, did Congress intend this massive usurpation of its own authority over foreign commerce? It’s one of the most important questions ever to come before the court, write @D_A_Irwin and Alan Wm. Wolff on.wsj.com/4nKhw9t

Opinion | Trump’s Blanket Tariffs Are a Bridge Too Far

The case against his use of IEEPA is powerful. The justices shouldn’t defer to presidential power.

wsj.com
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Just want to take a quick sentiment pulse in a poll of where we are in the crypto cycle
26%It's likely over
55%Its painful volatility
19%I don't know ! Help!
30,367 votes • Final results
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Important context for understanding current flows xitter.cf/saxena_puru/status/198…
Puru Saxena
@saxena_puru30 Oct 2025
October FOMC decision: - The Fed cut rates as expected by 25 bps. - The Fed will end QT on 1 December Rate cuts + end of QT are positive for risk assets, especially long-duration growth stocks.
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$AMD earnings implied move is 7% It looks like a 10 point vol reduction is in play for AMD earnings as shown in our term structure If we reduce IV by 10 points in the Calculator the straddle PNL seems positive from ~235 to ~270. Unironically that is ±7% from current price
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A Great line from The Big Short: "One of the hallmarks of a mania is the rapid rise in complexity and the rates of fraud." Dr. Michael Burry
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*US OCT. ISM SERVICES PMI HITS 8-MONTH HIGH OF 52.4; EST. 50.8 *US ISM SERVICES PRICES PAID INDEX RISES TO THREE-YEAR HIGH
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Fed's Miran: If tariff income went away it would bear on the Fed policy.
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SNB'S Tschudin: A major challenge today is US tariff policy, which has increased global uncertainty.
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🚨 U.S. SUPREME COURT BEGINS HEARING ARGUMENTS ON TRUMP'S TARIFFS
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SNB's Tschudin: An SNB balance sheet that is double its current size would also work.
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