BTC UP/DOWN daily trader on @Polymarket. GOAL: $100 to $100,000. Do you think it is possible? #Polymarket #Daytrading #Scalping
Polymarket
Joined July 2026
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Want free access to this Polymarket tick dataset?
1️⃣ Follow me @0xPolytrader (I share Polymarket setups, news & PnL daily)
2️⃣ Retweet / Like this thread
3️⃣ Send me a DM with "DATA"! I will share the link.
(P.S.)
Need data for markets other than Crypto 5m Up/Down? Mention it in your DM and I can add them to the pipeline!
polytrader retweeted
Ever bought on @Polymarket, then lost money because you couldn't sell at your price while you slept?
Set your target price on Hey-Traders! and take the profit.
↗ Take Profit / Stop Loss: sell at your target or cap your loss.
↗ Trailing Stop: follows the high, sells on the pullback.
↗ Stop Market: buys the moment price breaks out.
↗ Scale: ladders limit orders across a price range.
↗ TWAP: spreads one big order over time.
↗ Split · Merge: split collateral into YES + NO, or merge pairs back.
Visit hey-traders.com
the Polymarket trading terminal for smarter trading. ⚡
polytrader retweeted
Say it. Test it. Trade it. 🤖📈
Hey-Traders is LIVE on #ProductHunt today!
Support us with an upvote & let’s build better setups together! 👇
🔗 producthunt.com/products/hey…
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📈 Backtest & automate momentum, DCA, grid, or multi-market strategies
⚡ Run on Binance, Hyperliquid, Lighter, Extended & Polymarket
📊 Manage performance & orders in one workspace
After the settlement basis for the BTC 5m Up/Down market switched to TWAP, I lost up to $85 while testing out various strategies.
So I temporarily set the 5m market aside and switched over to the 1h market, and it’s been generating pretty steady profits for about 3 days now. I'll monitor it throughout this week while gradually increasing my position size.
Check bro
if you trade polymarket’s crypto up/down markets, you need to know this about the new TWAP logic.
the twap rtds feed is now live, but neither polymarket nor chainlink has published its exact sampling boundaries.
while testing the feed to update my automated trading setup, i found that the 30-second twap stamped at T was aligned with an equal-weight average of 30 one-second oracle observations from T−32 through T−3—not T−29 through T as expected.
here is one example:
twap:
64101.453282200352980992
average (T−32 to T−3):
64101.453282200333066666
average (T−29 to T):
64100.150690899158416666
raw logs, subscription details are in the replies below 👇
Been running a BTC 5m updown strategy built by GPT-5.6 #Sol for like a day and a half now.
My balance has been bouncing around between $140 -> $100 -> $120 lol. Feel like Sol can’t really cook up good strategies on its own—you gotta micro-manage every single prompt. And since it takes instructions too literally, it lacks flexibility.
Definitely need to optimize this, but it takes half a day every time I prompt it, so it’s kind of a pain to iterate.
Guess I'll just wait and see.
Anyone got any solid strategy ideas?
Just collected over 1,000 rounds of crypto up/down data.
Now building a new quant strategy with #Codex 5.6 GPT Sol. Think Sol can actually make money?
Reference for revising the strategy
polymarket is changing its crypto up/down markets after repeated settlement manipulation.
the old rule depended on a single oracle price at expiry. the new rule uses a 30-second TWAP.
if you’ve traded these markets near expiry, you’ve probably seen BTC getting pushed around into the close, the implied winner flipping in the final seconds, and prices briefly moving away from fair value.
i wanted to see how much the new rule could actually change, so i analyzed every BTC 5-minute up/down market from August 2—288 markets in total.
• 42 changed winner during the final 30 seconds
• 27 made their final flip in the last 10 seconds
• 19 made their final flip in the last 5 seconds
i then replaced the final snapshot with a 30-second average, sampling the oracle once per second and weighting every observation equally.
32 of 288 markets produced the opposite winner.
that is 11.1% of an entire day’s markets.
this should make last-second manipulation much harder and more expensive.
the old edge is gone. the close is no longer about winning the final tick—it is about how much of the outcome is already locked in.
Essential info for anyone running crypto updown bots.
Good news for crypto trader on @Polymarket
There will be no last second manipulation on crypto up/down market
Affected market will no longer resolve on based of single snapshot in time price instead resolution will use a time weighted average price ( TWAP )
$1M liquidity reward will be added through august for all impacted market
more details- discord.com/channels/7108971…
Just collected over 1,000 rounds of crypto up/down data.
Now building a new quant strategy with #Codex 5.6 GPT Sol. Think Sol can actually make money?
Want free access to this Polymarket tick dataset?
1️⃣ Follow me @0xPolytrader (I share Polymarket setups, news & PnL daily)
2️⃣ Retweet / Like this thread
3️⃣ Send me a DM with "DATA"! I will share the link.
(P.S.)
Need data for markets other than Crypto 5m Up/Down? Mention it in your DM and I can add them to the pipeline!
polytrader retweeted
5,017 markets. 50 cities. Six forecast systems. I tested whether public weather forecasts could become a simple Polymarket trade—and where the apparent edge disappeared.
polytrader retweeted
This wallet has the perfect name for BTC 5-minute markets
Heisenbug
polymarket.com/0x380499483cb…
8 days old
+$915 today
+$1,132 all-time
almost everything is BTC Up/Down
The pattern is not “predict the candle”
It is uglier:
wait for the board to look broken
buy the side people are panic-dumping
exit before the candle has time to become a religion
One receipt from today:
BTC 2:40-2:45PM ET
bought Up at 20c
sold around 69c
~+$259 net on the window
Then he kept doing the same thing on later candles
Not a whale
Not a clean genius screenshot
Just a fresh account treating every 5-minute market like a bug report
I turned $100 into $200 in almost a day trading the #Polymarket BTC 5m Up/Down market.
I think I’ve got the hang of trading this market now.
Quick hint: entering when a whale shows up yields a really good win rate.
My goal is $100,000, and I’m about to start sizing up. Once I reach the goal, I’ll share how I traded.
Follow @0xPolytrader to see if I can actually pull off $100k!
#daytrading
I want to grow my followers, so I’m #sharing something for #free.
The audience I want to connect with are #Polymarket #traders. Specifically, I’d love to engage with quant traders and exchange valuable insights with them.
To start, here’s a summary of the data I’ll be collecting for the BTC, ETH, and SOL 5m Up/Down markets:
- Polymarket: L2 order book, BBO, and trade ticks
- Chainlink: Real-time prices and start/end reference values
- Binance: Order book snapshots, depth deltas, and individual trades
- System: Raw WebSocket events, receive timestamps, and data-gap logs