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🚨 S&P 500 DRAWDOWN AFTER AUGUST IN EVERY RECENT MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR:
1962: -12.3%
1966: -18.2%
1966: -7.1%
1974: -28.6%
1978: -9.3%
1982: -27.1%
1986: -8.4%
1990: -18.2%
1994: -9.3%
1998: -18.3%
2002: -21.1%
2006: -6.9%
2010: -16.0%
2014: -11.2%
2018: -21.2%
2022: -16.9%
NOT A SINGLE POSITIVE RETURN IN 60 YEARS
2026 WON'T BE DIFFERENT
🚨 BITCOIN BOTTOMED WITHIN 71 DAYS OF EVERY MIDTERM ELECTION
2014 → 71 days after Election Day
2018 → 39 days after
2022 → 13 days after
12 months after Election Day:
2014: +25%
2018: +45%
2022: +92%
The next midterm is November 3.
Day 71 lands on January 13, 2027.
Save this chart.
🚨 THIS HAD NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE:
Oil above $100 and the US 10-year yield above 5% on the same day.
Every trading day since 1986:
• Highest oil price while the 10Y was above 5%: $75.90 (July 2007)
• Highest 10Y while oil was above $100: 4.27% (June 2008)
In 2008 oil hit $145, but borrowing was still cheap.
WTI started the 2026 at $57. The 10Y started at 4.19%.
NOW: Brent hit $111.97, the 10Y sits at 5.10%.
Something bad might already happen...
🚨 A SPACEX + TESLA MERGER WOULD CREATE THE 5TH MOST VALUABLE COMPANY ON EARTH
Market caps at yesterday's close:
• Nvidia: $5.31T
• Apple: $4.92T
• Alphabet: $4.16T
• Microsoft: $3.92T
• SpaceX + Tesla: $3.70T
• Amazon: $2.84T
Both boards formed special committees yesterday.
Tesla reports tonight after the close.
Historical moment
$1.5M in trading volume before public launch.
spent 8 months building @arbex_trade - a terminal finding odds gaps between @Polymarket, @Kalshi & 16 sportsbooks on the same games.
launch oct 25.
sharing PnL, numbers & what breaks.
arbex.trade
#buildinpublic
🚨 $SPCX: MY ROADMAP TO $300
I’m watching for one more flush toward $60–$70 before a lasting recovery
The bottoming process could take 2–3 months
If a solid base forms I’ll be watching for a recovery toward $200 with $300 as the bigger target
Capitulation first
Then patience while the base develops
By the time everyone feels comfortable buying again the best entry may already be gone
Save this chart
If I start accumulating, I’ll share my entries here
Hopper retweeted
$BTC
2017 → 2021 → 2025 → 2029?
Everyone is watching the next move
I’m looking at the next few years
If Bitcoin follows the same 4-year rhythm, the next major cycle peak could come around 2029
My target is $160K-$170K
For a buyer at $60K, that would mean roughly 167%-183% upside
The cycle won’t tell us every correction along the way
But it gives me a framework for thinking beyond the next green candle
The question is whether Bitcoin has another major expansion ahead
$BTC
2017 → 2021 → 2025 → 2029?
Everyone is watching the next move
I’m looking at the next few years
If Bitcoin follows the same 4-year rhythm, the next major cycle peak could come around 2029
My target is $160K-$170K
For a buyer at $60K, that would mean roughly 167%-183% upside
The cycle won’t tell us every correction along the way
But it gives me a framework for thinking beyond the next green candle
The question is whether Bitcoin has another major expansion ahead
Hopper retweeted
🚨 WARNING:
Banks are down more than 10% from a 30-day high while the S&P 500 is less than 2% away from an all-time high
The last time this happened was January 2000, 2 months before the Dot Com Bubble Burst
Something bad is about to happen...
🚨 WARNING:
Banks are down more than 10% from a 30-day high while the S&P 500 is less than 2% away from an all-time high
The last time this happened was January 2000, 2 months before the Dot Com Bubble Burst
Something bad is about to happen...
Hopper retweeted
🚨 BITCOIN ROADMAP: 2026–2027
One possible path:
September → Hope
October → Disbelief
November → Optimism
December → Euphoria
January → Complacency
Then anxiety, denial and panic
The hardest time to take profits is when everyone thinks the rally will never end
🚨 BITCOIN ROADMAP: 2026–2027
One possible path:
September → Hope
October → Disbelief
November → Optimism
December → Euphoria
January → Complacency
Then anxiety, denial and panic
The hardest time to take profits is when everyone thinks the rally will never end
Hopper retweeted
Hey @grok,
How much should I make per week to have the same spending power as the minimum wage in 1971 based on on the purchase price of gold
Hey @grok,
How much should I make per week to have the same spending power as the minimum wage in 1971 based on on the purchase price of gold
Hopper retweeted
🚨🇺🇸 U.S. HOME SELLERS HAVE A COMPETITION PROBLEM
August’s housing market had nearly 1.6 sellers for every buyer
1.53M sellers
972K buyers
A gap of 562,618
An asking price means little without someone willing to pay it
Sellers who need a deal may have to accept less
And a cheaper sale doesn’t just affect one homeowner
It can reset expectations across the neighborhood
How much will sellers give up to get a buyer through the door?
🚨🇺🇸 U.S. HOME SELLERS HAVE A COMPETITION PROBLEM
August’s housing market had nearly 1.6 sellers for every buyer
1.53M sellers
972K buyers
A gap of 562,618
An asking price means little without someone willing to pay it
Sellers who need a deal may have to accept less
And a cheaper sale doesn’t just affect one homeowner
It can reset expectations across the neighborhood
How much will sellers give up to get a buyer through the door?
Since Fed is expected to hike rates again in October
I've dig into data and checked every rate hike since 1994.
All 52 of them, including the one from September 16.
For each hike: the S&P 500 close on FOMC day vs the lowest close of the next 5 trading days.
→ After 36 of 51 hikes (71%), the S&P closed lower in the next 5 days
The biggest difference is in the tail:
→ A drop of 3% or more came after 13 of 51 hikes (25%).
→ The worst ones: May 2022 (−8.5%), May 2000 (−6.3%), Dec 2018 (−6.2%)
All three came when the Fed kept hiking into a market that was already falling.
Prepare your shorts
$BTC won’t stay at these levels forever
Don’t wait for a new ATH to pay attention
Hopper retweeted
$BTC is one retest away from repeating history
Sweep the lows → break resistance → retest the breakout
The first two steps are already done
Now all eyes are on $80K-$82K for the retest
Last time this sequence marked the beginning of the bull run
Follow me for updates on this setup and the next $BTC move
$BTC is one retest away from repeating history
Sweep the lows → break resistance → retest the breakout
The first two steps are already done
Now all eyes are on $80K-$82K for the retest
Last time this sequence marked the beginning of the bull run
Follow me for updates on this setup and the next $BTC move




