zelac retweeted
At some point in the next 18 months, the Fed is going to hike too much, the AI bubble will burst, bond yields are going to plunge and all these theories about fiscal dominance are going to look rather silly. Always choose incompetence over conspiracy
zelac retweeted
126 years of market history tell a simple story...
Stocks and earnings move together with a 98% correlation.
The short run is all about noise.
The long run is all about profits.
Speculators chase noise. Investors follow profits.
zelac retweeted
Everyone likes to compare now with the late 1990s or right before the GFC.
The one major difference is this. Financials breaking out of a 19 year base wasn't happening.
zelac retweeted
Why DEA’s Marijuana Rescheduling Proposal May Be DOA Under The Trump Administration (Op-Ed): "Trump himself has never called for relaxing federal controls on adult-use marijuana."
marijuanamoment.net/why-deas…
zelac retweeted
Bull markets that make it past their third birthday have historically lasted much longer than most investors expect.
@RyanDetrick
zelac retweeted
It took Europe 25 years to finally break out above its dot com bubble peak from 2000. Is this group just getting started?
zelac retweeted
July tried, but finished down 0.1%.
Prepare to hear a LOT about this from the bears, but down in June and July has been weak for the rest of the year historically.
zelac retweeted
Patience is the single most difficult skill to master for investing well. Too, the most impactful.
Position sizing trails patience. The more patience, the largera a position can be.
One must not mistake patience for foolhardiness.
A hardy fool is just a hardy fool.
zelac retweeted
Recent bond selloff has driven 30yr TIPS to near 3% real yields. While everyone roots around to find the next hot stock, this is likely the generational buying opportunity hiding in plain sight.
zelac retweeted
The most important chart in the world right now is the S&P Bank Index finally breaking out above its pre-Great Financial Crisis highs. This week, it closed at another new all-time high.
zelac retweeted
Stocks could be seeing their typical late June swoon, but good time to remember the S&P 500 has never peaked for the year in June. This is the only month to never peak for the year.
Given the most recent ATH was on June 2, could this year be the first? I say no.
zelac retweeted
Our proprietary @CarsonResearch Leading Economic Index (LEI) continues to suggest our economy is quickly improving.
Note, this LEI correctly said there wouldn't be a recession in 2023 and 2024 when many other LEIs said there would be.
zelac retweeted
Maybe the canary in the coal mine for the tech sector
$MSFT