Zac Coplon Hindsight is PV20 | Founder of https://xitter.cf/t.co/dtmJbR05IK | AI Lie Detector |
Bozeman, MT
Joined December 2013
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I'm trying new things, so today we are running a non-op working interest deal from EN using @4cast_piper.
Average LL of the analogs ~ 14,473, so we're scaling down the seven AFE wells (1 to 1) to the average of proposed wells ~ 12,416
Pushing 1st prod date out to 01/01/2027 and praying they complete them before then.
Next, we need a reasonable LOE estimate as these are new wells. Fortunately, that's why we built the 4tune500 tool in 4cast. We've been rebuilding it to ensure the data (financials) were as current as possible. The homie Claude seems a bit confused and wanted to include Continental.
I mansplained that CLR is no longer publicly traded and to exclude it.
We'll use Chord Energy LOEs for oil as the benchmark.
We selected Bakken horizontal wells within a few miles of the tract for analogs (2018 forward, punt Three Forks).
Hit a snag. My public dataset appears stale for Montana (fixing that now), but fortunately EN provided a more current spreadsheet in the VDR
We'll upload and merge that in 4cast manually and get it done the right way.
I need a contact at Encap. Hook me up 🙏
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
Three things to never say as an O&G software or data provider:
1) We are better than DI (DrillingInfo).
2) See above
3) See above
MFs (my friends), if you are better than DI you too would be worth ~ $6 BILLION.
Rant: I've noticed an interesting trend in O&G data and software recently.
Everyone thinks they are a developer now, shipping links to vibe coded tools and data for "free" or "cheap", putting downward pressure on prices for data and software.
I get it. I'm doing it too, just not for @4cast_piper.
New companies are popping up every 47 seconds using Claude to make slick product "demo" videos.
That's not real. It's an illusion.
AI slop, some would say.
Don't get me wrong, I know that competition is good for consumers.
Cheap quality products are not.
4cast is not a cheap quality product.
It's a good quality product.
We'll prove it any time, any day, anywhere.
Make vendors show you real life deals on the fly during demos. Don't give them any information prior.
They don't need to "prep" for demos.
That's an illusion, too. We can demo any O&G deal to anyone, on the spot, knowing nothing prior.
If a vibe product is as good as Claude makes it appear on social media, the evidence will be clear in the demo.
4cast will not become a cheap quality product and I refuse to play the race-to-the-bottom game.
We could and we'd probably win, because we have less debt and lower overhead.
Also because I'm stubborn, more competitive, and used to being a Poor.
But seriously, who spends real money on real assets using vibes?
People who want to lose money, I reckon.
That's worse than napkin math.
If you evaluate Oil and Gas deals and want to see something real, unedited, on the fly (the way real life happens), shoot me a DM or click the link to follow 👇
Picture of a good quality product below as an example.
End Rant
This morning I jokingly told my kids that I don't want to cook and that today is "Eat Whatever You Make Yourself Day".
The boy (9) said he will be eating pickles all day.
The girl (11) asked if she's allowed to make food for anyone else, then proceeded to knock out three breakfast quesadillas on her first attempt.
Hope for the youth lives.
Many years ago, I had a board much like this one that was gifted to me by a man who ultimately betrayed me in real life.
I never lost a game on that board.
Eventually, I couldn't stand to look at it, so I gave it to someone who provided great value to my life.
Today I replaced it.
Life moves on.
