BTC is going to grind down into midterms. Nov 4 will dead cat with treasury buybacks and possibly a new announcement from Bessent on extended/larger increases. Bond yields will push higher out of fear and inflation concerns. Blue midterms result in Treasury releasing positions causing all the market interference. Secular bear market for months.
BTC sellers reach exhaustion. Fed or Treasury announces a QE/repo operation. Markets rip as they begin to price inflation. 2027-2028 Bessent and Trump prop up the markets again.
The playbook has materialized, the timing is the question.
Guys, if one single fund blow up is enough to move your stonks multiple double-digits and the index materially, you should consider the market very brittle and illiquid. This is not the sign of a healthy liquidity environment.
$67k BTC will be the most efficient buy entry based on current market structure.
Tim Savage retweeted
youtu.be/RYextaFkiVo
I had a great conversation with @zTimSavage about markets, volatility, yield, custody, the future of Bitcoin, you name it. THIS WAS A BANGER
It's time to prepare for a secular bear market starting in the coming weeks.
Blue midterms result in US treasury losing incentive to actively participate in the markets as they have been. Trump has already twice alluded to using the left as a scapegoat for a crash. All the market interference can be released.
BTC orderflow is turning bearish in the short and mid timeframes. DATs are deploying at the highs as per usual. Bids are likely waiting for a drawdown to the 70s.
Just for fun, I built a BTC trading strategy that takes youtube influencers and aggregates their price predictions. Those who publish trades and have a winning track record (small percentage) form a base while those who simply draw lines and look at indicators (most) are counter traded at range high or low.
The system works very well. I guess I shouldn't be surprised lol.
Tim Savage retweeted
Thanks for having me @natbrunell. It was a great conversation about something I think deserves much more attention: The difference between an allegation and evidence.
We dug into all of it, along with where Bitcoin mining fits into the AI infrastructure buildout.
37 neighbors said a Bitcoin mining facility in Texas was making them sick. Then they had to prove it.
@paulapendleyLAW defended $MARA in the case and returns to the show to walk us through what happened and what's coming for other towns fighting over Bitcoin mining and data centers.
Share your reaction in the comments below.
The markets are showing who is out of touch with reality and who is really with it. You can show all the data, logic, and history, yet privilege still blinds.
We are wrapping up the first paragraph now.
Accumulate more BTC while you can. The discount window is closing.
Imagine waking up one day to media reporting that foreign nations are no longer transacting in the dollar due to the extreme U.S. debt load. Foreign banks and governments are no longer interested in buying UST because they know the debasement cycle will far exceed the interest earned on holding the debt. Foreign trade fragments and polarizes with brokerage occurring in hard commodity assets and local currencies.
US banks are frozen overnight to prevent collapse. Immediate, strict capital controls are implemented and the government assures everyone that things will be ok. But things aren't ok. Stock markets decline from uncertainty, spending and money velocity halts, debt markets seize. People are nervous, confusion is rampant. Within days, the public figures out that dollars are becoming inaccessible as credit is obliterated out of financial markets. People watch their retirement accounts decline by double digits for consecutive days. Trust and confidence is destroyed within one week.
While retail bank accounts are frozen, the government stuffs the large financial institutions with cash in an effort to stave off a systemic bank failure. People realize at this point that if capital unfreezes, the currency is becoming worthless at an alarming rate.
So what do people do? Naturally, they search for the most practical and reliable alternative money system. They will trade small goods in small quantities, but as goods disappear from shelves, they need a way to derive price signals outside of a rapidly depreciating fiat currency. Gold and metals are not widely distributed and cannot be verified easily.
At this point, people realize that bitcoin possesses the fundamentals of gold but is more accessible, distributed, and offers a tranparent global pricing ledger that can easily integrate into everyday life. Within weeks, people prefer bitcoin over everything else, modifying business operations with minor changes and less inconvenience compared to other alternatives. Markets start to price things in sats, media educates on bitcoin payment practices, and life moves on. Yes, financial accounts are destroyed due to credit failure, but at least the essentials can be established before rebuilding.
Bread is 5 sats
Gas is 50 sats
New car is 50,000 sats
Pricing feels familiar.
If you own 1 BTC, you have 100,000,000 sats. You realize that people are begging you to borrow your bitcoin. You establish a rate for lending out and choose the people you believe in most to repay. Money places new focus on efficiency and productivity instead of mediocrity.
And this is how the new era begins...
Current thesis for BTC price action:
Today, Bessent announced two important things:
1) "D Day" for Iran and their trading partners, threatening sanctions and cutting off anyone doing business with Iran from the dollar system.
2) Declared that the government TGA account, which can be refilled twice up to $2T more deficit spending to reach the $5T annual ceiling, will use up to $1T for US bond buybacks.
While terrible for our country, I think this is hugely bullish for BTC price.
-The bond buybacks are already highly inflationary due to the liquidity injection into the markets, and the extent of the buybacks is unprecedented. This was the thesis adjustment I posted about last week.
-I think the D Day sanctions will produce the opposite effect of what Bessent is trying to accomplish. Imo, it seems out of touch with how other countries are viewing our system and this will scare them away from the dollar, isolating us instead of strongarming others into submission.
Three key points of reason here. First, the Biden sanctions on Russia in 2022 put the world on alert that their bond investments can be compromised, which significantly damaged trust in the US. These type of sanctions are now driving distaste and apathy instead of fear.
Second, Canada, which used to be one of our closest allies, is distancing itself from us with their recent new set of retaliatory tariffs against us. This is clear evidence that even our closest allies are unfavorable to Trump.
Third, the 2023 banking dilemma actually drove BTC price up as people fled the dollar out of fear. If this thesis is correct and foreign sovereigns start selling dollars and bonds, they will seek alternatives and BTC should produce a similar breakout in price.
Thus, the inflationary effects of bond buybacks combined with an exit of US dollar system could create enormous upside for BTC.
While the BTC chart technicals suggest a low near the $48k range, I flipped hyper bullish the moment the Treasury bond announcement released last Wednesday and traded the move perfectly. Still remaining long here, reasoning below.
There are a lot of sellers caught off guard here, as I'm already seeing so much disbelief from those got squeezed on the short side. Shorts keep piling in and anyone selling spot is distributing into stronger hands at this point. There are also still a significant amount of short positions from earlier this year that are considering covering as key levels get pierced. This move then pushes options into gamma to the upside.
The move is clearly showing that there were many eyes watching how low BTC would fall, waiting to bid. Since the move occurred, they don't want to be left out and pile in quickly.
This is why having a systematic approach that combines fundamentals, technicals, and tone is a winning strategy. This is what we do at Ion.
Think we're about to see multiple legs on btc where shorts continually get squeezed out. Probably driven in part by the MSTR sell low buy high strategy.
Interesting development released on the heels of the Fed announcing a pause to the reserve management program.
Looks like they are pausing short term cycling and going into the long end instead. Yield curve control is starting to accelerate. Bearish economy but bullish hard assets - gold and btc should get a bid. I still think stocks are highly overvalued and we will see a rotation back into btc.
home.treasury.gov/news/press…
Bitcoin's foundational base is clearly under attack with the cold card incident and now trezor.
The playbook seems obvious - root out as must self-custodied btc so the regulated entities can take it.
Self-custody is of highest importance. It is the ultimate expression of property rights, freedom, and liberty.
My current thesis for the Yen currency issues:
1) US intervenes and buys yen, starting with a selloff of other foreign currencies held in reserve.
-Risk assets continue selloff, gold might draw down slightly, btc as well, bond yields push higher.
2) US intervenes again with a currency swap line or a bailout package several weeks or months down the line.
-Risk assets melt up on debasement trade, gold and btc break up, bond yields push even higher.
3) US Fed then has to use stabilization funds to buy back US bonds to push yields back down.
-Risk assets continue to melt up on debasement trade.
Nobody wants bonds. Dollar about to get crushed. We're shifting into nice window to bid BTC.





