A Dismal Optimist retweeted
Replying to @FabricioNakata
Time traveling to 9000 BC Gobekli Tepe and convincing the elders to enact a one time wealth tax, forever killing the discourse
A state with a one-time tax that works has a very strong incentive to implement it again; people know this and so it is not a credible promise, and so it doesn’t make sense to think the state will implement a successful tax only once.
Replying to @gabriel_zucman
Either the tax is annual – and in that case it generates revenue annually, and some billionaires leave.
Or the tax is one-time – in that case it generates revenue in just one year, and there is no incentive to leave.
It can’t be both at the same time.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Billionaires can leave based on beliefs the one-time tax signals future annual ones, even if it stays one-time—yielding lost income taxes without annual wealth revenue. This models uncertainty, a standard approach.
nber.org/papers/w35899
lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis…
A Dismal Optimist retweeted
Maybe ******* ****** just used the minimization operator instead of the maximization one. Common mistake.
A Dismal Optimist retweeted
A useful philosophical dictionary for beginners:
• Axiologically: very
• Essentially: very
• Fundamentally: very
• Inherently: very
• Innately: very
• Intrinsically: very
• Metaphysically: very
• Objectively: very
• Ontologically: very
• Universally: very
A Dismal Optimist retweeted
As promised, my new blog post is "The French Revolution Confounded." You can see the basic problem with Acemoglu et al.'s study in this figure. The wild cluster bootstrap is not kind to it.
thepoorrichworld.substack.co…
A Dismal Optimist retweeted
Journalistic “analysis” is like one of those old youtube conspiracy videos connecting random facts while the soundtrack of requiem for a dream is playing but the guy has a serious hat and a serious shirt
A Dismal Optimist retweeted
7yo: So they only made three Star Wars movies and never made any more?
Me: Yes exactly
A Dismal Optimist retweeted
In fact, explaining past events is what most economists try to be good at. Doing it well equips them to make _conditional_ “if this then that” forecasts, but that’s all. Show me an economist who pretends that his theories work like a crystal ball, and I’ll show you a charlatan.
HOW TO ANSWER ANY QUESTION ABOUT THE ECONOMY, a guide:
- say it depends
- they will ask what it depends on
- say it depends on relative elasticities or some other jargon
- show them a model and/or paper you don’t understand
- make up the conclusion you want
Tried and true, works 100% of the time, 30% of the time, p < 0.05 (except on that one prof that turned her “true or false” open ended questions into closed checkboxes to counter this strategy)


























