xmax17 retweeted
Mizuho: Sandisk
> NAND pricing is projected to remain solid through 2027E.
> Major eSSD ramp driven by hyperscalers: META, GOOGL, and OCI. Acceleration in KV cache and AI SSDs expanding into 2027/28E.
> NBMs provide long-term visibility across 8 Data Center/Edge AI customers. Establishes a ~$94B minimum revenue floor. ~1/2 of bits through F27E and ~2/3 into F28E.
$SNDK
Mizuho reiterates Sandisk target to $2,050
Sandisk already has agreements with 8 data center or edge customers
$93.9B minimum revenue floor.
50% of FY27 bits committed.
67% of FY28 bits committed.
4+ year average contracts. $SNDK
Enterprise SSDs are becoming a bigger part of AI infrastructure as inference and KV cache drive storage demand.
And NAND supply isn’t keeping up.
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All of us need to be on guard against arrogance, which knocks at the door whenever you are successful. —Steve Jobs
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JUST IN: JPMorgan expands crypto deposit token JPM Coin to Ethereum, allowing institutional clients to transfer money 24/7.
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If you’re a memory investor you’ve got to read this from Cantor today!
$MU has 16 SCAs, including 14 with pricing metrics sees potential for these LTAs to cover 50% of revenue versus 25% in the May Q and 35% in the August quarter signed additional agreements at higher prices🔥🫨
Goldman Sachs: CoreWeave has disclosed short-term contracts (3-6months) are signed at $40mn/MW, and has raised prices by 25% in July and another 10% in Oct…competitors suggests $13mn/MW is an appropriate starting assumption for new longer term contracts coming online $CRWV🔥🔥
xmax17 retweeted
Memory buyers are locking in supply for the next DECADE.
Google is reportedly in talks to secure memory supply all the way to 2035.
HP and Dell have extended their deals with $MU through 2031.
Micron now has 26 long term agreements covering about 35% of its revenue through 2030.
Customers don't sign 9 year deals when they expect a glut but rather sign them when they are worried about running short.
KeyBanc now sees DRAM contract prices rising 15% to 20% and NAND rising more than 20%.
And $MU still trades at about 5x next year's earnings.
Michael Dell just told the Wall Street Journal that the memory crunch is going to get WORSE.
On CNBC this week he said supply and demand get worse next year, and when asked about memory he called it "maybe a four year problem because there's just not enough supply."
His reasoning is that a new chip fab takes about four years to build, so the capacity being planned today may not produce anything until 2029 or 2030.
That is a STRUCTURAL shortage, and it is exactly what Samsung, SK Hynix and $MU want to hear after the brutal selloff in memory stocks this week.
The more interesting part is how $DELL plans to survive if the AI boom ever busts.
Dell builds just in time, so it isn't sitting on a mountain of inventory or debt like a lot of AI infrastructure players, and the WSJ says that gives it a CUSHION if demand collapses.
One of the biggest buyers of memory in the world is telling you the shortage isn't close to over.
xmax17 retweeted
The average price target on $MU out of 56 analysts is $1600 (83% upside)
Pretty insane
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Un investigador de Anthropic acaba de decirle a una sala llena de doctorandos que su plan de carrera ya no existe.
La charla se titula "El fin del Antropoceno" y los datos son brutales:
→ El cómputo para entrenar modelos se multiplicó por 10 millones en la última década
→ La duración de las tareas que una IA completa sola se duplica cada pocos meses
→ Desde hace 7 meses los modelos resuelven problemas abiertos de Erdős que los matemáticos no habían logrado cerrar
→ En San Francisco, tener "timelines largos" significa pensar que la AGI llega en 10 años
Su proyección: el cómputo de 2030 será 10.000 veces mayor que el de 2025.
Todavía estamos al principio de la exponencial.
Sus 3 consejos para los estudiantes:
1. Usa la IA cada día. Si estás sobre la exponencial, nunca te quedas atrás de ella.
2. Elige proyectos que mejoren cuando el cómputo escala. El resto quedará resuelto antes de que los termines.
3. Deja de planificar tu carrera como si fuera estable. La opción segura ya no compra seguridad, ya no existe.
Y una frase que resume todo:
"Escribir es pensar. Si externalizas tu escritura, externalizas tu pensamiento."
La charla completa aquí ⬇️
xmax17 retweeted
Wall Street’s most respected tech analyst just dropped their updated price targets across the entire semi & AI ecosystem:
$MU: $2,000.00
$SKHY: $300.00
$SNDK: $2,900.00
$STX: $1,300.00
$WDC: $900.00
$ADI: $550.00
$AEIS: $450.00
$AMAT: $850.00
$AMD: $700.00
ASML.AS: €2,500.00
$AVGO: $600.00
$CAMT: $175.00
$FORM: $175.00
$GFS: $90.00
$INTC: $125.00
$KLAC: $325.00
$LRCX: $500.00
$MCHP: $125.00
$MKSI: $600.00
$MRVL: $350.00
$NVDA: $350.00
$NVMI: $500.00
$NXPI: $400.00
$ON: $90.00
$ONTO: $410.00
$QCOM: $165.00
$TER: $550.00
$TXN: $340.00
BofA: We assign a $LRCX $385 PO based on 29x CY28E PE, justified by the memory and leading-edge foundry/logic WFE cycle, etch/deposition leadership, high-teens EPS CAGR, and robust FCF generation
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J.P. Morgan: AI CapEx
> 2026 Capex Forecast: Growth estimate raised from +80% to +85% YoY. This adds over +$270B in incremental spending (a new record step-up, beating 2025).
> 2027 Capex Forecast: Growth estimate raised from +50% to +70% YoY, representing an incremental spending increase of $400B+.
> Total Market Spend: Aggregate data center capex across top U.S. CSPs, Tier 2s, neoclouds, and others is projected at ~$800B in 2026 and ~$1.5T in 2027.
Power Capacity Expansion
> Planned Pipeline: North American planned data center power capacity tracked to 200 GW+ as of 2Q26.
Installed Capacity Growth:
2025: 54 GW
2026: 82 GW
2027: 125 GW
$GOOGL $META $ORCL $AMZN $MSFT
JP Morgan Raises 2027 Data Center CAPEX to +70% yoy growth from +50% prior
“Given the latest data center capex
forecast for the top four U.S. CSPs, we remain bullish on coverage companies that directly support AI infrastructure demand, particularly across networking. In our view, networking growth should track even stronger, given its increasing mix of spend and its role as a gating factor for high-end compute performance” $CRDO $LITE $COHR
xmax17 retweeted
$MU $SNDK $SKHY
Samsung and SK Hynix are both down more than 50% from their June highs, and they now trade at 2–3x their 2027–28 earnings.
In every previous memory upcycle (2001, 2008, 2018, 2022), the low end for these two was 4–7x. Their price-to-book is now near 1x, a level that usually shows up only at the bottom of a real bust, with warehouses full of unsold chips, DRAM prices cut in half and quarterly losses.
None of that is happening this time.
Memory inventories at both companies fell below 10 days in September, and KB Securities has their earnings staying near record highs through 2028, with only a single-digit dip that year.
Every new generation of GPUs and custom chips also needs new memory: HBM, SOCAMM, LPDDR5 and enterprise SSDs. As the installed base gets refreshed, each upgrade cycle turns into another round of orders.
The market is pricing in a bust but the demand is ever increasing.
Long $MU and $SNDK, and not selling.
xmax17 retweeted
JP Morgan calls for a re-rating in memory stocks:
- The memory S/D inbalance is deepening
- Rising AI/hyperscalers CAPEX
- Rising HBM content per AI accelerator
- HBM/DRAM wafer tradeoff becoming steeper with HBM4E consuming 4x more wafers per bit than DRAM
- SCA/lTA framework is significantly improving the forward visibility for memory producers
Just observe how cheap the Memory Big 3 have become:
Samsung: 2.99x FY2027 earnings
SK hynix: 2.72x FY2027 earnings
Micron $MU: 4.96x FY2027 earnings
Samsung and SK hynix are trading BELOW 3x next year's earnings, that is quite insane. Why? Is 2028 going to be a horrible year compared to 2027? No, 2028 profits will be even higher than 2027. What about 2029, will that year become horrible then? Nope, profits may moderate a bit but there is no sign of any earnings collapse with AI demand continuing to rise.
$MU $SKHY $SNDK $005930.KS $DRAM
xmax17 retweeted
Dan Ives says he just landed from Korea and memory chip demand is running 13 to 1 against supply
[ Are we at a point where we should start questioning the ability to finance? ]
"Financing, especially given what we see in yields? I mean, it's going to be a risk factor, but I just keep going down to demand."
"I literally just landed from Korea. And memory, we're seeing memory chip demand supply 13 to 1."
"I mean, the backlog that CoreWeave's seeing is just tremendous. So I'm not going to say there's not going to be pressure. But I do think the market's way overreacted here."
TSMC CEO C.C. Wei says he'll avoid answering directly whether TSMC would rescue customers if Intel's packaging falls short, then says yes
"Today's situation, we are the only one that, you know, makes sure that the advanced packaging is at 5x reticle size, and still we are very competitive."
"If the competitor cannot deliver on their solution, Charlie, I think you're saying, will we be willing to be something like a backup plan?"
[ Charlie: I... I... ]
"Try to avoid answering it directly, but let me say that yes, we will be... number one priority, I already indicated that TSMC's customers' product can be introduced into the market smoothly, that's the number one priority, okay? And that gives you enough hint."
[ Charlie: I hope you don't leave any food for others, including the advanced packaging. ]