🚨 Claude Opus 5 will be releasing in a few hours..

Spoke with @EvgenyFeldman on a Russian-language podcast. Always fun to discuss politics with a smart person!

Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran! One trader believed in peace, while the other did not There can be only one outcome: one winner and one loser A bet on peace: $13,000 –> $442,000 A bet on war: $700,000 -> $0 You can check out their profiles for yourself: [The winner] - polymarket.com/@fernandoinfa… [The loser] - polymarket.com/@istaroth?r=s…

Polymarket is literally giving away +50% profit almost risk-free right now And I’m not joking I’m talking about the market: "What will happen before GTA VI?" One of the options is "Bitcoin hits $1 million" - currently priced at 49% GTA 6 is expected to release sometime in the next year The real probability that Bitcoin reaches $1 million in that timeframe is close to zero So you can buy No at ~51¢ and get a very high chance of turning it into $1 when the market resolves Yes, it takes time - but +50% in under a year with almost no risk is still much better than any bank deposit And the most interesting thing is that opportunities like this come up all the time

Sadly, a few influential Polymarket/UMA voters can basically decide the outcome of markets. Here's what just happened: There's a market on whether Trump talked with President Xi in March. Trump and Karoline Leavitt said they did, but China never confirmed it. And almost always (if not always), these kinds of calls are publicly announced by China, so that created a lot of doubt. That's why the odds dropped to around 17%. But today, literally nothing changed. No new evidence, no confirmation, nothing. The only thing that changed is that an influential UMA voter decided to vote that they talked. And just from that, the odds jumped from 17% to 95%. That's kind of insane. At this point, markets aren't resolving based on clear evidence, but based on what a few people like "JessicaOnlyChild" or "UMA rocks" think. I really hope Polymarket clarifies every market, until the new oracle system is live. It shouldn't be possible for a handful of non-Polymarket people to have that much influence over outcomes.

do aliens exist? today Trump announced an order to declassify all materials related to UFOs, UAP, and possible extraterrestrial life the probability of this event has surged to 18% on polymarket is this ez "no"? or is it actually ez "yes"? market: polymarket.com/event/will-th…

There have recently been some discussions on the ongoing role of L2s in the Ethereum ecosystem, especially in the face of two facts: * L2s' progress to stage 2 (and, secondarily, on interop) has been far slower and more difficult than originally expected * L1 itself is scaling, fees are very low, and gaslimits are projected to increase greatly in 2026 Both of these facts, for their own separate reasons, mean that the original vision of L2s and their role in Ethereum no longer makes sense, and we need a new path. First, let us recap the original vision. Ethereum needs to scale. The definition of "Ethereum scaling" is the existence of large quantities of block space that is backed by the full faith and credit of Ethereum - that is, block space where, if you do things (including with ETH) inside that block space, your activities are guaranteed to be valid, uncensored, unreverted, untouched, as long as Ethereum itself functions. If you create a 10000 TPS EVM where its connection to L1 is mediated by a multisig bridge, then you are not scaling Ethereum. This vision no longer makes sense. L1 does not need L2s to be "branded shards", because L1 is itself scaling. And L2s are not able or willing to satisfy the properties that a true "branded shard" would require. I've even seen at least one explicitly saying that they may never want to go beyond stage 1, not just for technical reasons around ZK-EVM safety, but also because their customers' regulatory needs require them to have ultimate control. This may be doing the right thing for your customers. But it should be obvious that if you are doing this, then you are not "scaling Ethereum" in the sense meant by the rollup-centric roadmap. But that's fine! it's fine because Ethereum itself is now scaling directly on L1, with large planned increases to its gas limit this year and the years ahead. We should stop thinking about L2s as literally being "branded shards" of Ethereum, with the social status and responsibilities that this entails. Instead, we can think of L2s as being a full spectrum, which includes both chains backed by the full faith and credit of Ethereum with various unique properties (eg. not just EVM), as well as a whole array of options at different levels of connection to Ethereum, that each person (or bot) is free to care about or not care about depending on their needs. What would I do today if I were an L2? * Identify a value add other than "scaling". Examples: (i) non-EVM specialized features/VMs around privacy, (ii) efficiency specialized around a particular application, (iii) truly extreme levels of scaling that even a greatly expanded L1 will not do, (iv) a totally different design for non-financial applications, eg. social, identity, AI, (v) ultra-low-latency and other sequencing properties, (vi) maybe built-in oracles or decentralized dispute resolution or other "non-computationally-verifiable" features * Be stage 1 at the minimum (otherwise you really are just a separate L1 with a bridge, and you should just call yourself that) if you're doing things with ETH or other ethereum-issued assets * Support maximum interoperability with Ethereum, though this will differ for each one (eg. what if you're not EVM, or even not financial?) From Ethereum's side, over the past few months I've become more convinced of the value of the native rollup precompile, particuarly once we have enshrined ZK-EVM proofs that we need anyway to scale L1. This is a precompile that verifies a ZK-EVM proof, and it's "part of Ethereum", so (i) it auto-upgrades along with Ethereum, and (ii) if the precompile has a bug, Ethereum will hard-fork to fix the bug. The native rollup precompile would make full, security-council-free, EVM verification accessible. We should spend much more time working out how to design it in such a way that if your L2 is "EVM plus other stuff", then the native rollup precompile would verify the EVM, and you only have to bring your own prover for the "other stuff" (eg. Stylus). This might involve a canonical way of exposing a lookup table between contract call inputs and outputs, and letting you provide your own values to the lookup table (that you would prove separately). This would make it easy to have safe, strong, trustless interoperability with Ethereum. It also enables synchronous composability (see: ethresear.ch/t/combining-pre… and ethresear.ch/t/synchronous-c… ). And from there, it's each L2's choice exactly what they want to build. Don't just "extend L1", figure out something new to add. This of course means that some will add things that are trust-dependent, or backdoored, or otherwise insecure; this is unavoidable in a permissionless ecosystem where developers have freedom. Our job should make to make it clear to users what guarantees they have, and to build up the strongest Ethereum that we can.

I'm betting on FDV MegaETH below $2B, and here's why The odds on Polymarket for “MegaETH (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?” are currently 63% YES I believe it will be NO, and here's why: >L2 projects are always falling down Starknet –94%, ZK –75%, Blast –75%. Starknet currently has the highest FDV at $1B >The premarket chart is already slowly going down (currently $2.8B) >Very low activity on Ethereum (currently 0.037 gwei) >The project's Discord is practically dead >70% of Polymarket's top traders are holding NO shares What FDV do you expect from MegaEth?

How Trove Team Crime Polymarket Traders 1) Launch ICO with Fixed deadline 2) Buy YES shares at 0.1 then sale is over 3) Announce a “5-day extension,” supposedly “to ensure high-quality distribution.” 4) Sell your YES shares at peak price 5) oops, we changed our minds, no extension, back to the original plan Potential profit: 1M$+