Assoc. Prof. @ousom | Proud RI native | New England sports fan | Large-scale climate dynamics and S2S forecasting | Opinions & thoughts are my own. 🇺🇸 🇵🇹

Norman, OK
Joined February 2009
The American solution to the vaccine distribution problem might just be to set up drive up vaccine clinics at all Chick-Fil-A restaurants. Quick. Efficient. Familiar to many. And jabs done with “My Pleasure” after them and maybe a free Chicken Biscuit.
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Jason Furtado retweeted
1245 PM - From local emergency management: EVACUATE LEEDEY DUE TO WILDFIRE. LEAVE NOW and head toward the south HWY 34 to Hammon. #okwx
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The latest GEFS run (00Z 21 February) continues to feature a stratospheric wave reflection event end of next week (+ve wave flux over Siberia/-ve wave flux over Canada). This will lead to a building ridge near Alaska and higher cold risks for the Midwest and Northeast thereafter.
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I know it's cold now in the central/Eastern US. But, I am already tracking ANOTHER potential cold air outbreak on the way, thanks to a very strong stratospheric wave reflection event about to occur. Potential impacts would be early-mid March. #S2S
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Whoa…
Alex Bregman's contract with the Red Sox is for three years and $120 million, source tells @TheAthletic. Opt outs after each season.
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We are thrilled to announce Prof. Kristen Corbosiero's promotion to Full Professor, the department's first female faculty member to achieve the rank. Congratulations @ProfCorbosiero!
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He IS like us. 🏆 From the graduation stage to the #SuperBowl  celebration stage, we could not be more proud of you, @JalenHurts. You constantly represent OU with class, integrity and toughness, and we could not happier to see you shine in NOLA. ☝️
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Kendrick Lamar has more yards than the Chiefs Offense. #SuperBowlLIX
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What happened to all the "vortex split coming!" posts??
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Jason Furtado retweeted
News: Oklahoma State University President Kayse Shrum is expected to announce her resignation tomorrow, per multiple sources.
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3) The #PolarVortex at 10 hPa will likely weaken in the coming weeks. Split? As of now, the probability of a major SSW (complete breakdown, easterlies at 60 N, 10 hPa) is quite low (no members of the GEFS show it).
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5) EVEN IF the vortex at 10 hPa does have an SSW, there is still a high chance that, in North America, the impacts may be weak. Remember, the clamor is based on composites of all major SSWs. But when you study them case-by-case, there is high variability in North America.
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All this is to say - we have this flurry of activity every year when a long-range model predicts a major SSW. The fact is - the prediction skill for our current forecasts for SSWs is very low beyond Day 10. Lots will get lost in colorful maps. :)
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2) The pattern favors strong upward wave activity flux next week. I agree. But, what happens with that is still interesting to ask. We could have breaking waves or some could reflect. This is shown with high values of the reflection index from the GEFS.
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Lots of posts on single deterministic runs of models showing a splitting of the vortex coming up for mid-February. Some quick thoughts: 🧵👇
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1) GFS especially, but even the ECMWF, have biases in the 11-15 day+ runs of SSWs. You can do a search of past winters on this site to see that.
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I sometimes fly a similar route (OKC —> DCA) in the same type of plane. Absolutely devastating to see this news.
Just horrible. Regional jets can hold up to 5 dozen seats or so. No word on number of people on board or outcome of jet at this point.
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