Joined July 2010
You can be globally compassionate as a person and still feel that your society should have careful borders and that local cultures matter, and should be preserved if they're clearly doing well. These actually aren't in contradiction.
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After I won my defamation lawsuit against corrupt Australian "journalist" Nick McKenzie, his friends in the media, especially Matthew Goldstein of the NY Times, deliberately mischaracterized my total victory as a settlement to protect McKenzie's undeserved reputation. I didn't just win; I won seven consecutive judgments, all with cost awards, which I believe is an Australian litigation record. The judge described McKenzie's defense conduct as "egregious" and "disarming." I sued Nick McKenzie for defamation because I had proof that he lied and committed fraud. But he can't sue me for defamation for calling him a liar, a fraud, and a disgrace to his profession because truth is an absolute defense. In fact, McKenzie would make my day if he did sue me for defamation. I'd like the opportunity to extend my record and win an eighth judgment against him. Though I may get to break my own record anyway, as I may soon have the evidence to prove that McKenzie was actually the driving force behind the shutdown of my bank, so he could use it as evidence in his defense. If I find it, I may win the biggest defamation judgment in Australian history. @Ageinvestigates @MattGoldstein26
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Premise: Incentives drive all human behavior. The corollary: How to destroy a country: A vast social security and support system that serves as a magnet for those who would rather not work. An open immigration policy that does not screen immigrants to determine their ability and willingness to provide for themselves and their families. An open immigration policy that does not screen for political and/or religious ideologies that are a threat to the country. Economic incentives large enough to incentivize immigrants on the state dole to have large numbers of children, but insufficient for educated and economically productive mothers to be able to quit to raise a family. The declining fertility of the most educated and productive women due to their delay to begin a family as a result of their desire and/or need to advance their careers, among other reasons, to live a life they deem consistent with their educational achievements and/or to repay their student debts. Amnesty programs that give citizenship and voting power to illegal immigrants without consideration of their economic productivity or their threat to the country due to their religious or political ideologies. The changing demographics and increased population due to the above factors. The state responding to protests by increasing social support. The continued failure to punish and hold accountable violent and looting rioters. Government managed by a massive and growing unelected bureaucracy. Government fraud, waste, and abuse contributed to ballooning budgets. Anti-business legislation that makes it difficult for businesses to compete in a global marketplace being disrupted by AI, including restrictions on firing even poorly performing employees. Overly burdensome, globally uncompetitive, corporate taxation. Continuous increases in personal taxes to raise funds to provide for the rapidly growing welfare state. The substantial majority of the tax burden levied on a small percentage of the population. A growing percentage of the electorate paying no taxes and receiving welfare. The introduction or threat of a wealth tax including the taxation of unrealized gains, i.e., taxes on paper wealth. The flight of the most productive business builders and highest taxpayers to lower tax countries with lesser security concerns. A growing percentage of the electorate voting for candidates that support increased welfare and laws favorable to, and/or that match the cultural and ideological needs and desires of a growing unproductive immigrant population. The rapid rise in anti-semitism and inadequate efforts to address this hatred. Increased borrowing by the state to fund the growing social burden. Higher sovereign interest rates due to all of the above. The resulting need to reduce expenditures to make the math work. Increasingly violent protests that make life less livable for the productive and law abiding citizens leading to their accelerated departure. And so on…
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"So you are spending $7 trillion?" Congress: "Yes Dave" "And you only have $5 trillion in revenue?" Congress: "That's correct Dave" "And you have $40 trillion in debt plus you are spending 25% of your revenue on only interest payments?" Congress: "That's correct Dave"
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During the last few months of 2020 and the first few of 2021, it was obvious from the numbers that inflation was about to spike. When it did, the Fed dismissed the rise as transitory. It's happening again. Inflation is about to spike, only this time the rise will be much bigger.
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CNBC is sugarcoating the U.S. economy. They reported that the recent inflation data shows that inflation isn't coming down as fast as the Fed expected. It's not that inflation is coming down too slowly; it's that it's not coming down at all. In fact, the rate is rising rapidly.
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During the first nine months of 2026, the CPI is already up by 4%. That's more than the 3.4% rise during all of 2023 and the 2.9% rise during all of 2024. Republicans are lying when they say inflation has come down under Trump. Prices will rise more under Trump than under Biden.
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Under Biden, the highest inflation in any one calendar year was 7% in 2021. The seeds for that high inflation were sown under Trump in 2020. Annual inflation then fell every year under Biden. It will rise every year under Trump. Both 2027 and 2028 will likely see gains above 7%.
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Oil is above $100. The main reason it's not closer to $150 is all the oil being released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That will stop after the midterms. When it becomes obvious that inflation will outpace Fed rate hikes, the dollar will fall, sending oil prices soaring.
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CPI, PPI and import prices all came in hotter than expected this week. Traders sold gold anyway. They think it means the Fed will fight harder. It means the Fed already lost. Gold at $4,145 is a gift. youtu.be/aTvp6f9h6Uk
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“Equality of outcome is in clear conflict with liberty. The attempt to promote it has been a major source of bigger and bigger government, and of government-imposed restrictions on our liberty.” — Milton Friedman
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Since our 2022 debate, gold is up 116%. HEX is down 99.6%. Richard Heart laughed through the whole thing. Only one of us is still laughing.
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Producer prices skyrocketed 1.3% in Sept., almost triple estimates. That annualizes to an inflation rate of nearly 17%! YoY PPI rose 6.3%. Sept. core rose 0.7%. That annualizes to nearly 9% inflation. PPI is a leading indicator of CPI. Despite rate hikes, real rates are plunging.
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Kevin Hassett claims the U.S. economy is very strong because consumers are saving less and spending more. He attributes that to high confidence. But confidence is at a record low. Consumers are spending more because stuff costs more, and they're borrowing because they're broke.
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Replying to @DarrigoMelanie
This is the most economically illiterate tweet I’ve ever seen. Public debt is, by definition, the result of government—not the private sector.
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Replying to @ImBreckWorsham
Plus mortgage rates are going a lot higher than 7.56%. That means house prices must crash to prices where people can afford to pay.
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Sept. CPI rose 0.6% (7.4% annualized), in line with expectations. YoY prices rose by 3.7%. Core prices rose 0.3% (3.7% annualized), which exceeded estimates, with YoY core rising by 2.6%, also above estimates. The inflation problem is getting worse as the Fed stays too loose.
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Milton Friedman: “In the long run, government will spend whatever the tax system will raise, plus as much more as it can get away with. That’s what history tells us.” “So my view has always been: cut taxes on any occasion, for any reason, in any way that’s politically feasible, as the only way to keep down the size of government.”
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Martin retweeted
“The trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money.” -Margaret Thatcher
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