author of GOONHOOD/Bask series/Sandmarches. i am wilderness monkey
desert
Joined June 2023
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HAPPY SOLSTICE—MY NEW BOOK IS LIVE. YOU MUST BUY.
Grimdark/military fantasy. Egyptian horror. Barbarian nomads. A Caliphate in civil war. Lots and lots of sand.
Get it here; amazon.com/dp/B0FDVK4G1Z/ref…
claw retweeted
we're basically in a civil war. their plan:
-censorship and mute RW social media (meta defeated, thanks elon)
-lawfare to arrest/harass undesirables (countless)
-influencers to normalize violence (hassan)
-DDOS violence (antifa, assassins) to kill if necessary (kirk, thompson)
claw retweeted
I am in the top 1% of earners in the country.
10x the median wage.
If I can’t afford the worst house on the worst lot in an expensive but not the most expensive neighborhood in LA, the country is going to explode.
If you don’t want communism, you want this to change.
I want to put a spotlight on how scummy these kinds of used car salesmen posting their LLM EconomicSlop takes are, copy+pasting their LLM prompts such as; "Dear ChatGPT, tell me why the economy is fine, why boomers will buy my short term rentals and why my dick flaccid?"
These same court eunuch podcast types have been attacking me all week after I went semi-viral pointing out what the reality of being a mildly *successful* realtor post-Covid is actually like. They're trying to point out data points like "um actually Lennar is underbuilding and we have 30 million new Scam-molians and Squatamlans in the country every year who are foaming at the mouth to become Austrian-economic suburb whites!" and cherrypicked data points such as inventory levels of 2009-2012, trying to prove that the GFC was a fluke and we're on the brink of some great economic boom! The used car salesman bit isn't just a jab—almost every anklebiter in my comments is a speculator, home-flipper, AIRBNB prostitute or some other 45 year old ish college-dropout Pace Morby wannabe.
(by the way I've had a number of brokers, MLOs, investors either comment or message me directly to share their stories about similar experiences)
The reason of course is simple; 2008 inventory data is irrelevant to 2026. We could be at 20% of the housing inventory and it wouldn't matter one goddamn because 'The Economy' isn't some hypothetical astrally-projected Necronomicon that Scott Bessent can shape rotate in his mind. It's flesh and blood people who are forced to play a Mr. Beast style game of money-wizardry where they have the freedom to choose their financial prison (job) but nobody escapes the mercy of decades of baby boomer fiscal policy and reckless spending (not including USAID)—ain't nobody gettin out alive. But more importantly, society has altered so drastically since 2008 we may as well be talking about buying farmland in 1066.
We're not in a housing freeze because the interest rates bumped up from 5.5% to 7%. We're in a housing ice age because by in large Millennials and Gen Z (and eventually Alpha) aren't forming families, they aren't having kids, they are beat down by inflation and the only political solution they are remotely interested in involves guillotines, firing squads and stripping the boomers of entitlements. Leaving you with a rapidly-shrinking pool of willing and able buyers, year after year.
I said early this week that 'The Kids Yearn For Federally Funded Midwest Stalinkas' and I was only half joking.
The harsh truth of RE right now is that in order for you to have home buyers, you actually have to nurture amicable economic conditions in which younger people are willing to sit and invest significant chunks of their life to pay off a massive debt for it—more importantly they also have to fucking care. They don't care. They're not interested in padding a boomer's pocket or living a suburban life. They don't believe they'll receive Social Security in 2062 and they're psychologically checked out.
Oh and by the way, we've had 44 consecutive months of declining permitting for building new homes and a 9 month supply of new construction last I checked—there is no shortage of new homes or homes at all. The true price of homes will reflect in the coming years when social trends rear their ugly heads.
What there is a shortage of is honest people in the real estate industry who aren't course sellers, debt pawnbrokers, or shameless grifters—aka human tapeworms
Here's why Real Estate prices aren't crashing
(some of you were hungover during Econ 101)
Between 1960 - 2000, the US averaged building 15.1M homes per decade
Then, the great RE recession of 2008 happened and building in the US came to a halt
We've only averaged 8.6M homes per decade since
That's a 43% REDUCTION in new housing
Meanwhile, the US population has grown an average of 25.4M people per decade
Basic SUPPLY & DEMAND
Population grows 25.4M per decade (demand)
+
New homes drops 43% per decade (supply)
=
Home Prices growing and staying high
Back in 2022/2023, I was full time in real estate selling DH Horton concrete prisons to the normiecattle. If you called Zillow in PHX on a house in my zip code, there was a high likelihood I would get to flirt with your wife behind your back that friday touring a house.
Back in 2022 (even during 120° summer) I would receive HUNDREDS of phone calls a week. About 20% losers without money. Almost half were illegals who sometimes showed up to a showing smelling like a rat covered in shit and thought you could buy a house with a VISA. But some of those were solid leads—people who are stupid enough to think $3500 /month for a toasty gray floor whitewash shitbox in a sand-colored favela was somehow going to improve their life. Those watery-eyed Disney Adults who would flop out of a Honda Odyssey with a useless Rocket Mortgage pre-approval gripped tightly in their grimy paws. On average during off season I probably did about 15 house showing appointments a week.
I had my fun, made some money along the way, and got out of the industry. But I get calls every now and again from former clients and colleagues. Usually shooting the shit. Just had one call me earlier this evening asking what I think about selling his house I bought him (VA loan, great floor plan, very affordable). Military wants him to relocate so he's been on the market for 100+ days. Price cut down to the lowest in his area (300s). Open house every weekend. Nothing. He's panicking and asking me what to do.
I get a wild hair and text my old head-taker (MLO who won loan officer of the year twice in a row) to see what's shaking. Turns out he had to sell his boat last month and considering his house. He used to sling refis and HELOCs like a drug mule does fent on Indian School and the 17. Guy made close to a million a year 2020-2023. You wouldn't know it because he's a few bad more months before going broke.
I do not see a future where real estate doesn't crash. There's simply too many illiquid deranged boomers who are drunk on decades of cheap money, shitty margaritas and will either be forced into selling or die like a 3% interest rate pharoah. I worked with too many of them (I have hundreds of stories) of Deborahs and Chucks, Dales and Sues, Bobs and Jeanies who are do not understand that Zoomers cannot afford the lifestyle inflation nor want their decrepit upranches.
Remember; every day 10,000 boomers hit 65. Then 5500 die daily. Consider that real estate supply is already high, demand is already low and this is before a wave of Margaritaville Shitboxes hit the market at delusional prices. If Meemaw and Peepaw are calling the shots they are going to drag their feet until their heels turn to hamburger—even if nobody puts an offer in. That means buyers will wait longer and make them bleed because a $4800 a month payment at 7+% interest rate is not feasible for an Amazon Prime Ring Doorbell goyserf family. And if they get put in a house or croak the kids always want cash out. They'll price cut until they sell, which means tanking the whole neighborhood's value.
Enjoy the show 🍿
claw retweeted
My goal when I started trying crowdfunding to produce historically-styled editions of great texts (like Beowulf and the Poetic Edda shown here) was to tap into the spirit and aesthetic energy of the ages that produced these works initially. For too long these kinds of heroic epics and wonder-tales have been printed according to the bland tastes of academics, but these are stories meant to stir heroic longing and inspire will and imagination! When I heard such tales as a young man, they resounded in my mind with the gilded and cunningly-wrought fury of the North Sea adventurers and chivalric paladins. I want to pass on the tales with the same kind of grandeur.
I know many of you missed the opportunity to reserve one of the Beowulf or Edda books when I was doing the crowdfunding for those; this is one of the downsides to crowdfunding limited-run printing like this. I always get some extras, but there's never enough for the folks who find out about it down the road. I do hope to be able to print some more of these in 2027, but please don't miss the chance for the illuminated Gawain books now, and please share the campaign around so others folks won't miss the chance either!
Good morning! The illuminated Gawain and the Green Knight project is live on Kickstarter!
kickstarter.com/projects/tam…
