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People are ready to believe AI has thoughts and feelings because it can talk to us, while insisting animals have neither because they can’t.
Apparently consciousness is just a language proficiency test.
What If The Future retweeted
Premise:
Incentives drive all human behavior.
The corollary:
How to destroy a country:
A vast social security and support system that serves as a magnet for those who would rather not work.
An open immigration policy that does not screen immigrants to determine their ability and willingness to provide for themselves and their families.
An open immigration policy that does not screen for political and/or religious ideologies that are a threat to the country.
Economic incentives large enough to incentivize immigrants on the state dole to have large numbers of children, but insufficient for educated and economically productive mothers to be able to quit to raise a family.
The declining fertility of the most educated and productive women due to their delay to begin a family as a result of their desire and/or need to advance their careers, among other reasons, to live a life they deem consistent with their educational achievements and/or to repay their student debts.
Amnesty programs that give citizenship and voting power to illegal immigrants without consideration of their economic productivity or their threat to the country due to their religious or political ideologies.
The changing demographics and increased population due to the above factors.
The state responding to protests by increasing social support.
The continued failure to punish and hold accountable violent and looting rioters.
Government managed by a massive and growing unelected bureaucracy.
Government fraud, waste, and abuse contributed to ballooning budgets.
Anti-business legislation that makes it difficult for businesses to compete in a global marketplace being disrupted by AI, including restrictions on firing even poorly performing employees.
Overly burdensome, globally uncompetitive, corporate taxation.
Continuous increases in personal taxes to raise funds to provide for the rapidly growing welfare state.
The substantial majority of the tax burden levied on a small percentage of the population.
A growing percentage of the electorate paying no taxes and receiving welfare.
The introduction or threat of a wealth tax including the taxation of unrealized gains, i.e., taxes on paper wealth.
The flight of the most productive business builders and highest taxpayers to lower tax countries with lesser security concerns.
A growing percentage of the electorate voting for candidates that support increased welfare and laws favorable to, and/or that match the cultural and ideological needs and desires of a growing unproductive immigrant population.
The rapid rise in anti-semitism and inadequate efforts to address this hatred.
Increased borrowing by the state to fund the growing social burden.
Higher sovereign interest rates due to all of the above.
The resulting need to reduce expenditures to make the math work.
Increasingly violent protests that make life less livable for the productive and law abiding citizens leading to their accelerated departure.
And so on…
What If The Future retweeted
Coreweave CEO Michael Intrator says the market is acting irrationally by selling his stock.
A run through SEC filings reveals Michael Intrator has been “acting irrationally” as well, selling $907 million worth of $CRWV shares this year alone.
His cofounders Brian Venturo and Brannin Mcbee have also been acting irrationally. The trio has sold a combined $3.3 billion of stock since the IPO. Venturo is the second biggest insider seller of any American company this year.
Their benefactors at Magnetar Capital have also been acting irrationally. They have sold more than $5.5 Billion of Coreweave stock since the IPO.
A lot of people seem to be acting very irrationally.
What If The Future retweeted
I am a member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
There are five of us. Five people, appointed by a parliament most of the planet could not find on a map, who decide, once a year, which human being the world has agreed to call good.
I know. I know. I think about it on the tram.
We meet in a building on Henrik Ibsens gate, a street named after a man who wrote almost exclusively about people discovering they are frauds, which nobody on the committee finds funny except me. There is a room with a long table and the portraits of the dead laureates looking down, Mandela, the Dalai Lama, a great many earnest men in spectacles, and one portrait we do not discuss, which is Kissinger, 1973, awarded while the bombs were still falling, after which two of our predecessors resigned and the satirist Tom Lehrer said political satire was now obsolete. We keep him on the wall. A reminder. Every family has the uncle.
It is October in Oslo, which means the sun gives up around four in the afternoon like a civil servant, and it rains the particular Norwegian rain that isn’t quite falling, just hanging there, judging you. I arrive with wet shoes. I always arrive with wet shoes. There is coffee, because this is Norway and there is always coffee, we drink more of it per person than almost anyone alive, and someone’s wife has sent kanelboller, the cinnamon buns, and we sit, five Norwegians, damp, caffeinated, sugared, and we decide the moral standing of the entire species.
Let me tell you how it actually works, because the world imagines a cathedral and it is, I promise you, a book club with a mandate.
287 nominations this year. 208 people, 79 organizations. Anyone can nominate, that’s the secret nobody understands: a professor, a parliamentarian, a former laureate, so the “nominee” list is meaningless, it’s a suggestion box, and every autumn some congressman nominates his own golden retriever and the press writes “SHORTLISTED.” Nobody is shortlisted. There is no short list the public ever sees. There is us, and the coffee, and the rain, and the portraits, and a Norwegian stubbornness that is older than the prize itself.
We read reports. The institute’s advisers write them, thick dull documents, and we argue. Our chairman told the BBC once that in the final meeting “there is a high temperature.” High temperature, for a Norwegian, means someone slightly raised an eyebrow and then apologized for it. We don’t do high temperature. We do a long silence, and then Kristin says “well,” and everyone knows exactly what “well” meant, and it’s settled. That’s our shouting. “Well.” You’d have to be raised here to hear the violence in it.
Now. This year. I will not say the name, because we never say the name, but you know the name.
A certain head of state wanted this prize the way a child wants a thing in a shop window, which is to say loudly, and in public, and with the full belief that wanting it was itself the argument. He said he deserved it. He said he’d ended eight wars, a number that grew most times he said it, like a fish. He had other heads of state phone us. Israel’s prime minister posted it on the internet, “Give him the Nobel.” The leaders of Cambodia and Pakistan announced they’d nominated him, as though announcing it were part of it, as though we tally mentions. A man flew around the globe collecting endorsements for a Norwegian committee the way you’d collect signatures for a petition to the council about a noisy dog.
And here, uff da, is the detail I treasure, the one that makes me smile into my coffee. The nomination deadline is the 31st of January. He took office on the 20th. So for all the phone calls, all the posts, all the gilded lobbying, the only nominations that could possibly count for this year’s prize were filed in the first eleven days of his term, before he had, by his own arithmetic, ended a single one of the eight wars. He campaigned all year for a prize whose window had shut while he was still hanging up his coat. We didn’t have to reject him. The calendar did. We just watched. Norwegians are very good at watching. We have long winters.
People think we sit there weighing his deeds. We don’t. That’s the thing I can’t make the world understand. We’re not grading his homework. We don’t owe anyone the prize for a ceasefire, however real, however loud the announcement. “He made peace” is not a sentence that ends in a medal, the way he believes it does, the way he believes every good thing ends in his name on it. The will of a dead Swede says the prize goes to whoever did the most for fraternity between nations. A dead Swede, I should add, who made his entire fortune inventing dynamite and selling arms, and spent his last years horrified at his own obituary, which called him a merchant of death, and so bought his way to immortality as a man of peace. The whole prize is one guilty arms dealer’s attempt to launder his name. We are, all of us, administering a dead man’s public relations. I find this clarifying. It keeps me humble. It should keep everyone humble, and it keeps, by my count, no one humble at all.
So who did we give it to?
An eighty-five-year-old woman. A judge. Born in Durban, under apartheid, granddaughter of a Tamil man who came to South Africa as indentured labor, a bus driver’s daughter from the poor Indian quarter, who became the first non-white woman to run a law practice in her province, who defended Mandela’s people when defending them was dangerous, who sat on the Rwanda tribunal and the court at the Hague, and who, at eighty-five, is right now a judge weighing whether a genocide is a genocide. When we told the world, our chairman said the rule of law “underpins the system we have set up to ensure peace,” and that “peace requires justice.” She wasn’t even in Oslo. She was in Nuremberg. In courtroom 600. The actual room where they tried the Nazis. You cannot stage that. God staged that, and God, it turns out, is a better satirist than any of us.
She did not phone us. She did not post. No prime minister demanded it for her on the internet. She had, as far as our deliberations are concerned, the one qualification the loud man could never manufacture, which is that she wanted the work and not the medal. The medal finds those people. It flees the ones who chase it. This is not a rule we wrote. It’s just the only pattern the hundred-odd years of our mistakes has ever shown.
The reaction from across the ocean was immediate. His spokesman posted that we “place politics over peace.” Ja. Perhaps. We’re five damp pensioners in a rainy city; of course it’s political, it was always political, it was political when we gave it to a sitting American president nine months into his first term for the promise of things he had not yet done, and we have been quietly embarrassed about that one for fifteen years, so believe me, we had a particular reason this year to prefer a woman with fifty years of verdicts behind her over a man with eight wars in front of him and a deadline already behind him.
Here is what he will never understand, the thing I’d tell him on the tram if he ever took one. We are the one prize he cannot buy, cannot post his way to, cannot have a friendly dictator phone in for him. Not because we’re incorruptible, nei, we’re as vain and wrong and human as the portraits on our wall. But because the entire point of the thing, the only power a small cold country’s book club has ever held, is that it goes to the person not performing the wanting. The moment you demand it, you’ve proven you don’t understand what it’s for, and proving that is itself the disqualification. He ran the most expensive campaign in the history of the prize and the campaign was the reason. He was never losing to Navi Pillay. He was losing to the concept.
It’s dark now. Four o’clock dark. The buns are gone. Kristin said “well” an hour ago and we all went home. I’m on the tram with my wet shoes, and somewhere across the water a very powerful man is explaining to a camera that the prize is rigged, that we’re corrupt, that he’ll win it next year, and he genuinely might, we’re only five idiots and we’ve been wrong before, Kissinger is still on the wall.
But not this year. This year an old woman in Nuremberg, in the room where the law once stared down the exact kind of man who thinks wanting a thing loudly enough should make it his, got a phone call she didn’t ask for.
That’s the job. We don’t reward the man who ends the war and announces it.
We reward the woman who spent fifty years deciding what a war was.
He’ll never see the difference. That’s rather the whole point of him.
Takk for i dag. I have to change trams.
The kid who borrowed $100,000 to skip the trades is now the one without leverage.
The electrician he was told not to become is getting a raise.
And the loan is still due.
Here's what's actually happening to the college degree, and why we're still financing it.
The credential is being squeezed from both sides.
From above: AI is absorbing the entry-level analyst, paralegal, and junior-dev work a degree was supposed to buy.
Recent-grad unemployment has run above the overall rate five years straight. That almost never happened before 2018. It's 5.6% vs 4.2% now, and the explanation is still "remote work" and "the cycle."
It won't be for long.
From below: the jobs the degree was supposed to let you skip are gaining pricing power. Non-degree unemployment in the same age group is falling. Nurses, linemen, electricians. Work that needs a licensed human physically present and legally accountable.
Scarcer every year. Better paid every year.
Deleted from above. Outbid from below.
Financed like nothing changed.
The part that should bother you:
The debt belongs to the student.
The risk belongs to the taxpayer.
The school keeps the tuition either way.
Engineer or barista, the check clears.
When defaults come, Washington absorbs them, because it always does. The bill lands on the people who were told this was the safe path.
We confused a credential with a capability and built a loan system around the confusion.
That isn't weather. It's a choice. Here's the other choice:
→ Stop lending against a signal. Tie federal loans to actual earnings by program. Publish the data.
→ Schools repay a share of defaulted loans. Skin in the game or no federal money.
→ Fund the license, not just the degree. Same federal backing for apprenticeships, trades, and clinical credentials as for a generic bachelor's.
→ Tell 18-year-olds the truth. Borrow for a skill that scarcity or liability protects. Not for a paper that says "trainable for a desk."
We keep asking how to make college loans cheaper.
The real question is why we're financing something whose value is being deleted in real time, with the bill going to the people least able to pay it.
Nobody ever gave me a house for having potential.
But we'll lend an 18-year-old $100,000 against it.
Hope I'm wrong. Positioned like I'm not.
Nearly half of college faculty are part-time.
An adjunct teaching a three-credit course makes about $4,000 for it. Teach eight courses a year, more than a full load, and you clear $32,000 with no benefits and no contract past December.
In one national union survey, 38% of contingent faculty said they relied on some form of public assistance.
Read that again. The person teaching you how to become economically independent is on food stamps.
So where does the $100,000 go?
Not to the person in front of the room. It goes to the climbing wall. The lazy river. The rebranded student life center. The fourth assistant dean of something. Administrative headcount has grown far faster than faculty for decades, and the amenities arms race exists for one reason: to win the 17-year-old on the campus tour whose loan will pay for it.
That's the loop. Federal money follows the student. The student follows the brochure. The brochure is funded by the last student's loan. The teacher is the cheapest line in the budget, so the teacher gets squeezed first.
It's not an accident. It's the business model.
A school that pays its faculty poverty wages while building resort amenities on borrowed money isn't selling an education. It's selling a credential and using the teacher as a prop.
Fix the financing and this ends. Tie federal eligibility to outcomes and to how an institution pays the people who produce them. Schools that want the loan money can show where it goes.
Until then, the credential is a lie told by someone who can't afford to keep telling it.
Built a local AI that monitors my sleep, predicts when I’ll wake up, calculates optimal coffee brew time, and uses the waste heat from running the model to preheat the water.
The model now consumes more electricity than the coffee maker.
But the coffee maker is 11% more efficient.
This is what progress looks like.
I identify as Sumerian and don’t appreciate everyone acting like my civilization is ‘dead.’ Some of us are just between empires.
Humanity's greatest failure is not that we are easy to indoctrinate.
It is that we can be indoctrinated into believing another human life matters less simply because they were indoctrinated differently.
And almost none of us chose the beliefs we inherited in the first place.
We absorbed them the same way we absorbed that a word is spelled a certain way, that a week has seven days, or that a day is divided into 24 hours.
Not because we independently proved those things from first principles.
Because everyone around us already agreed that was how the world worked.
The danger begins when we forget that some of the things we experience as unquestionable truths are actually inherited agreements and then decide that people raised under different agreements are somehow less human.
The most powerful beliefs are not the ones you can defend. They are the ones you cannot imagine yourself without.
A belief becoming part of your identity does not make it more true. It just makes disagreement hurt more.




