James retweeted
I have this type of structure in the back of my mind for the stable coin dominance chart.
If I am right, we will see a brief risk off period in crypto, which will be a good buy the dip opportunity, for our descent to 7-8% dominance.
If/when we reach 7-8% dominance, I will likely risk off heavily, expecting a higher low to form.
Important to note that this chart helps to inform my bias as we progress, it does not set it in isolation. A shift in structure or tagging a key level is when this chart is most useful imo.
$USDT.D + $USDC.D
James retweeted
The ability to run open models locally have given enterprises and individuals a reason to own GPUs capable of near frontier intelligence.
.@gregosuri is on @FINTECHTVglobal to speak on Akash unlocking both commercial and residential compute to meet the rising AI demand.
The chip shortage is structural, not a production issue, and tons of GPUs are sitting idle.
@gregosuri, Founder of @akashnet, tells @RemyBlaireNews the network connects that idle compute to a grid, turning it into a liquid, tradable market.
James retweeted
The $SPX tops every 7 years.
The oldest market cycle is 3,000 years old.
Pharaoh dreamed of seven fat cows. Then seven thin ones.
Joseph's interpretation was simple: seven years of abundance would be followed by seven years of famine.
His advice was even simpler.
Don't try to stop the cycle. Prepare for it.
Thousands of years later, investors are still trying to learn the same lesson.
James retweeted
I'll let you decide that for yourself since that was an illustrative laser revenue modeling off $SIVE 100M CW DFB laser/year target.
But... do you want to know the main reason I like laser companies so much?
They don't just have to stay laser companies... just look at $LITE!
If we look at Lumentum's previous Cloud Light acqusition (pluggables)... it enabled:
- more than a 5X+ expansion in served opportunity inside DCs.
From Lumentum's OFC deck:
- ELS expansion from UHP laser chips was 2X TAM opportunity..
But selling lasers alone... just from one UHP laser fab was $5B in projected revenue capacity (their fab expected to ramp in early 2028), if we apply similar 55-65% CPO laser margin quotes by $AAOI.
So lasers by itself is very profitable, and despite industry capacity expansion, there would likely still be a demand imbalance for lasers.
Isn't that pretty cool?
So it's not quite just modeling component value for certain types of companies since they can keep growing into other products.
And you have new overlapping cycles eg. NPO/CPO/1.6T pluggables increasing demand.
So I'd personally assign higher premiums for laser companies over types of suppliers that stay in the same layer.
What do you think is a fair revenue multiple you would assign to $SIVE if their recent expansion is able to deliver on $625M-$1.25B of annualized revenue?
James retweeted
I asked OpenAI Astra Ultra + Anthropic Fable 5.1 Max to make me a 5x-10x return type portfolio in 1 year.
Burnt a lot of credits, and the results are in:
OpenAI: - $KYTX (autoimmune CAR-T results)
- $PRQR (human RNA-editing datasets)
- $VSTM (KRAS cancer-drug)
- $CNTB (asthma and COPD)
- $RANI (oral biologics)
- $IVA (MASH)
- $SILC (networking + inference hardware)
- $AMPX (batteries)
- $EOSE (batteries)
- $ZVRA (rare-disease drug growth)
Anthropic: - $INO (respiratory papillomatosis)
- $CAPR (PDUFA for deramiocel)
- $GOSS (seralutinib)
- $SLS (Phase 3 binary)
- $IREN (familiar face)
- $WULF (familiar face)
- $OKLO (nuclear)
- $SMR (nuclear)
- $RGTI (quantum)
- $QBTS (quantum)
*Disclosure don't own any of these aside from 1 share in IREN, not a recommendation, just TLDR of LLM output for educational purposes.
So very interesting results:
Our beloved AGI Astra prefers really obscure biotech I've never heard about. And a few familiar names like $EOSE and $AMPX.
And Fable... yeah idk, feels like it learned a little too much from /r/wallstreetbets and X but maybe it's right, who knows.
Anyway no judgement, I'll save this and revisit it in a few months. If one of them actually delivers... I'll be impressed.
James retweeted
Seeing many arguing that precious metal miners are no good just because they are sometimes lagging the metals. That is not very useful info, and repeating that endlessly shows one do not understand the miners, or big picture charting.
Just like with the metals, playing miners is all about timing.
Many are worried about that miners are not outperforming metals big yet. But, it is not unusual for metals to take the lead up from big lows. And when the wall of worry really lets go, we will see 8-10% up days for GDX and 10-15% up days for SILJ.
A true generational opportunity continued with the gold 8 year cycle low back in 2022 (called it in real-time). The miners bull will evolve in stages. The third stage for miners up from 2022 lows started 1.5 months ago.
The commodities bull market started 5 years ago (called the bear market low in real-time), and it will be the bull market ride of our lives.
#joinus at graddhy.com
James retweeted
I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect.
Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming.
But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens?
Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity.
Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management"
1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%.
_
Nvidia in 2026:
Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme.
Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!"
Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027.
I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.
James retweeted
my old job was fine. good team, guys i liked talking to, no truly dickhead bosses. on any given day it was completely fine.
what got me was "looking forward".
eventually i'd be 50 doing the same thing. higher up in the org, sure. but everyone answers to someone, and the guys above me had less free time than i did. plus you're always on call.
and getting promoted repeatedly wasn't up to me. someone has to promote you. someone has to like you. plenty of people pushing for the same seat.
then you cap out at whatever level and still deal with all of it.
then you retire, and your kids are already grown.
i never budgeted. but i knew every dollar we didn't spend was a dollar i could invest somewhere, and in a few years that dollar might be four.
two incomes, fifteen years, living well below what we made. kept the job the whole time as a fallback in case the risk taking didn't work.
then i took big swings with it. i whiffed on some. the ones that hit were much bigger than the ones that didn't.
and after all that i still wake up at the same time, 6:30.
kids.
James retweeted
$AREC is the only domestic recycler and refiner of many of these rare earths into pure 99.999% rare earth oxides. They're expected to have capacity of 10,000 MTPA by end of 2026. My favorite way to play this bottleneck right now.
James retweeted
The greatest irony of this cycle will be boomers outperforming cryptards over the past year with equities, just for cryptards to sell the bottom of crypto to enter the top of equities, while the boomers sell them the top of equities to enter crypto at the bottom, outperforming them twice in a single cycle.
James retweeted
$TSLA down 40% from the highs/since I shared my chart on it nearly a year ago.
This is why you don't FOMO into hype and green candles.
Yea the potential for the "future tech" that $TSLA is developing is massive. But you have to ask yourself if this is already priced in or not. It's not like these ideas are novel anymore- we all know it's coming- so how much of that speculation/anticipation is already accounted for in current prices?
In addition to that (and while I need to do a lot more research in this area) last I heard $TSLA has been losing market share in the EV category and sales have been declining.
From the technical perspective, when I look at the chart I see a relatively choppy grind to local highs. Sure, we may keep pumping from here, but as long as there is a good argument to be made for a correction back down to our range lows (which I believe there is) the R/R is not justified for fresh positioning here imo.
I'd be interested in the green zone below if we ever get it ($70), and if we don't, then I'll look for other opportunities in the market (there are always others).
As crazy as it may seem at the moment, you have to keep in mind that $TSLA was trading at $100 just a few years ago and a few years before that it was literally trading at $12. Also, we can see that a pullback to $70 wouldn't break HTF market structure, just like the last pullback to $100 didn't break HTF market structure. So a pullback to those levels is totally "fair game".
If we did get something like this, it would be interestingly similar to our Wave 4 $BTC move from 65k to 15k, before the final 5th wave that we are in the middle of today.
James retweeted
In the next leg up in crypto, ethereum:native will be one of the top leaders gaining in both $ terms as well as dominance. And while BTC could go up in $ value, it will likely lose dominance. The price action from late last year strongly points to this being the most likely outcome.
James retweeted
Thanks to the continued pullback of the commodities index and the continued rallying of the stock market, the commodities to equities ratio is back to a much more attractive level once again.
I've said this many times that I believe there will be a regime change in the near future where commodities will lead most equity markets (including tech) for the next decade, so I see this pullback as a gift to those who are still building out that long-term commodities leg in their portfolio.
My portfolio is around 20% commodities and will be increasing to 30% over time as my buy zones are reached.
James retweeted
I know a lot of you have been crypto only and are interested in stocks, or feel like you have missed the move. While yes, you largely have missed the first big leg. I'd like to remind you that there will always be more opportunities. This is all a 10 year buildout in general. That will continue into the 2030's
eventually there will be a large correction and you'll get things at a discount. But by no means have you missed it all and the reason i say that is bc a lot of it doesnt even exist yet. Unless you see 1 billion robots working in factories bc i dont see that yet. then you know we haven't even scaled yet. You will be fine, you will have opportunities. Things will change as long as you put yourself in a position to win when the time comes
James retweeted
Interesting. SPCX IPO is on June 11th.
Smart that he is going first.
Anthropic October, OpenAI late q4 likely. Now that they won the trial.
So how do you see it?
Dump into end of May.
Start early rally into IPO.
Reverse down immediately one week post IPO?
October can def be the bottom. So Anthropic timing is good as well.