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AI/Quant frontiers: Decoding institutional flows in equities & crypto | High-conviction positioning, not predictions | Signals + Models ⬇ https://xitter.cf/t.co/O1gX7N7scs

Joined June 2009
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Quick recap of our calls this past year / early 2026, leading to today: 1. April 2025 - Crypto rally / ETH entry - bull start. 2. Oct 3-6 - Exit ETH, end of crypto rally. 3. Forecast for market pullback by Feb - in play. 4. Mapped it as asset rotation: digital → physical. 5. Played REE, lithium, PGM, and metals along the way. 6. Mapped crypto bear bottom for Summer/Oct 2026. 7. Expected a bounce in crypto - early Jan entry closed with small loss - called the sell (USDT.D and related indicators) 8. fyi: We are in aggressive campaign selling by institutions - this is not retail selling. 9. Never paid attention to gold... with all the hype. 10. Called interim top for Gold on Jan 30th - short now. PS. bonus: Still think it will be a 12% pullback, not a 25% crash. We will end the year at > 7800 - supported by BBBA (big beautiful bill) and 2.5T liquidity from Bessent and Trump as the US ramps up industries and its war chest.
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qqq / Nasdaq HTF sell signal is being confirmed. High confidence we are entering correction here. Bounce is over. Trump pump - or other promotion tbd. But generally PA is confirming. Last signal was April 2nd bottom. Be careful with crypto. Yes it’s in 200dma - but risk levels are still very high, and money was flowing out. Will be sharing updates.
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That was a weak bounce. Trend broke. Bounce looks like it’s over. IPO will suck out the money from the market and will use retail as exit liquidity. forced as they will add it to SP500. Caveat - still may have surprised with more Trump Tump taco announcements. Getting back online with updates. See sell signal forming on 4d on nasdaq. Reduce your risk.
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Not sure everyone appreciates what these AI-related capital raisings mean in a historical capital market context. Alphabet’s $85 billion raise last week was more than 3x the size of the Saudi Aramco IPO, previously the largest equity raise ever. Next up: SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI & potentially Meta (secondary). The question isn’t whether the capital can be raised. I suspect it can. The question is what gets starved of capital while AI hoovers up hundreds of billions, nota bene while the usual Middle Eastern oil & gas capital isn’t available to the same extent. Every bubble has a vacuum cleaner effect. This one may be the largest capital absorption event markets have ever seen.
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The best people to fund: Plainspoken and earnest builders
One thing Paul Graham said about YC interviews is that they’re not looking for founders who can “control the room” like polished salespeople. The real question YC is trying to answer is: “How do you know people actually want this?” That’s also why YC tends to filter out a lot of overly “street smart” founders. People who bluff, dodge questions, or try too hard to sound impressive are usually easier to detect than they think. Real understanding of users tends to sound much calmer and more specific.
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Imagine buying crypto on an 11.5% credit card, leaving yourself enough cash to pay the monthly payment for 6 months, and hoping your buys rise fast enough that you can sell it to pay the monthly payments and still make money. Except right after you buy the crypto it crashes and now you have to sell even more at a loss to cover the same monthly interest payment. That's what Saylor did.
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One of the wisest traders I ever knew shared this 26 years ago: “When markets fall on good news is when your antenna better go up.” 💯
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Value Investing = Watching your value stocks do nothing during a massive bull market in ponzis, only to see those same value stocks go down in a correction the same as said ponzis 🥹 source: Shrubipedia
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SpaceX will go public some of these hyped AI Companies/Overvalued Semis due to standard cyclical nature Entire market pulls down at least once before year end That'll be your shot. But since this is CT, everyone will buy XRP and STRC instead
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$ES / $SPY trend broke - likely bounce next week and head lower. bottom April 2nd - Top June 5th. Regime change May 29th - June 1st. Trend break June 5th. More to follow… PS. Trump pump showmanship / and SPCX IPO are unknown variables.
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$NQ / Nasdaq… More to follow. Review the market Pulse dashboard… It has a full update.
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Crypto tagged the February bottom today (exit signal was May 12-13th). Bounce in order. Broad TradFi - market is correcting. Regime turned bear on May 31st. The manic Trump pump is over for a period? He must have sold already. Looks like the SPCX IPO will be in a declining market? TBD if it extends into October. More to follow / updates - inc on our shorts (emotional wounds licking took time). PS. We will need to see if broad market / Nasdaq correction will and to what degree affect crypto.
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Here we disagree. If the USA switched from "do what you're best at" from the worthless "do what you love" we'd find that huge chunks of the population were just wasting time.
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Lol yep. Conmen. Comes from CONfidence You get paid to instill fake confidence and hope into people that are going down the wrong path and know it
Replying to @BowTiedBull
“Warren Buffett didn’t need Gary Vanyerchuck telling him to hustle” was a line from Tim Dillon that always stuck with me.
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NPCs think our comments on genetics is "negative". It's the opposite. We watch thousands/millions of people waste their lives chasing 0% probability outcomes Leaving millions in future earnings on the table if they followed what they are good at Have ruthless self awareness
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a13v retweeted
US Fertiliser Crisis 2026 — Facts & Figures *All facts verified against AFBF primary source
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Crypto... bear regime, since May 13th, risk remains high. As we outlined correction will take time.
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GM, Top of Mind: May 21-22, 2026 (afternoon) The US administration appears determined to prop up the market at all costs. Traditional metrics — most of which are deep into territory far beyond historical extremes - have been largely ignored. We had anticipated a healthy pullback to build a stronger base for the final leg higher. Instead, even minor dips or threats of them (including the largest drawdown in oil/fuel inventories) are met with immediate supportive headlines or interventions that prevent down days. Quantum-related stocks, in particular, are being pumped aggressively, even ahead of potentially weaker sessions. This is now a market driven almost entirely by headlines - and no dips are allowed. While we remain structurally bullish on weekly timeframes, we are growing concerned about clear signs of exhaustion heading into a June/July top, likely centered around the SPCX IPO. It feels as though every effort is being made to hold the market up “just enough” until then - after which reality may set in. By June/July, an energy and food price crisis is likely to become undeniable. White-collar job impacts will also become more visible and inflation will feel very real. This sets up a classic disconnect: sky-high indices alongside real economic pain for consumers, farmers, and white-collar Main Street. It remains unclear whether semiconductors will push to fresh all-time highs. A capital rotation out of the leaders would be the more logical path, but the administration has shown willingness to scrape the bottom of the barrel — pumping quantum names, and perhaps cannabis stocks next. So we lick our wounds here and re-plan. The shift will continue into Agriculture and Natural Gas. We will decide next week whether we fully exit the SOXX trade. Key observations: - Hedge funds are holding extreme short positions. - CTAs remain largely on the sidelines. - Only about 54% of S&P 500 stocks are currently above their 50DMA, with roughly 40% of market-cap gains concentrated in just 2% of stocks (the top 10 names). - There is an almost clockwork pattern of buying pressure hitting SOXL around 15:30 the past several sessions. - Despite record drawdowns in oil/fuel inventories, oil prices remain suppressed. - SPCX IPO scheduled for June 12, with visible efforts underway to enable earlier passive inflows via Nasdaq and potentially SPX inclusion — positioning retail as likely exit liquidity. - The market has been pushed, pumped, and shoved higher. (We won’t even mention oil prices or VIX suppression here.) - The biggest concern is that this artificial “no dips allowed” pump already exceeds the extremes seen in the late 1990s/early 2000s. - This suggests we may face a dead zone from late June (post-IPO wave) into the October low, until the next wave of IPOs. Key Questions: - Since headlines are now the primary prop, are we simply playing a game of sustaining 7400–7300 into the IPO — then using the IPO itself to push toward 7800–8000? - If so, what are the realistic chances of a pullback to the 7100 level? - Irrespective of the above, does late June to early July now look like the start of a correction? At this stage, the ceasefire is being treated almost purely as a market-pumping mechanism. Whether it holds or not seems secondary — the energy crisis already appears baked in and unavoidable. The zealous, almost ego-driven determination to keep equities elevated regardless of fundamentals is one of the more striking features of this cycle. We expected a blow-off top… it is clearly arriving earlier than anticipated. The question for us remains how we will play it. At this stage we will most likely concentrate in Agriculture, Natural Gas, and ride the blow-off top with tactical in-and-out positions while selectively increasing shorts. Equally we will make a decision whether to exit our short positions / or scale up. This is Part 1 and Part 2 (with signals) will follow later today, perhaps early. A bit of a fit to run analysis and re-evaluate numbers - in a headlines and emotions driven market.
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NEW: Pakistan's army commander will not travel to Tehran tonight. -AI-Arabiya
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We’re finalizing the update - it’ll drop a bit later today. - Massive block buy on SOXL into yesterday’s close. - Another barrage of fake news hitting the wires. - Interesting to see if the Iranians have finally caught on and are now trading our market with fake news — just like we do. 😉 - Trump is scraping the bottom of the barrel, pumping quantum stocks that aren’t even profitable or technically proven yet. - What’s next? Dusting off cannabis stocks again? Or a full Bitcoin Strategic Reserve promo in prime-time? We’re licking our wounds and will be back shortly with the full update. At this point, the impact from the global rupture looks unavoidable. Selling fake news will go only so far.
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A sign of economic strength 💯🔽
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