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physics1990 retweeted
Eldridge Colby getting the memo when he finally saw classified reports and actual numbers and capabilities of the PLAN and realized that it was impossible to defeat China in the Asia-Pacific did this. Only intelligent American official actually
Absolutely extraordinary paper by RAND, the main think tank of the US military-industrial complex, and another key sign that the U.S. deep state - despite all the chaos and noise - is shifting away from deterring China, towards accepting coexistence (it's literally what they recommend in the paper).
These are the 3 most important recommendations in the paper (which link is here: rand.org/content/dam/rand/pu…):
1. Rejecting the false belief that a victory is possible in the China-US rivalry and accepting the legitimacy of the Communist Party:
They write that the U.S. should "clarify U.S. objectives in the rivalry with language that explicitly rejects absolute versions of victory and accepts the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party."
They explain that it's necessary because victory is objectively impossible ("the effective destruction of the other is not a feasible option"), rejecting it is imposed by hard realities and because continuing to try would be catastrophic (as it would "threaten [either side's] survival").
2. Accepting coexistence
They write that "each side [must] accept, in ways that are deeply ingrained and broadly shared among decision-making officials, that some degree of modus vivendi must necessarily be part of the relationship." They also write that "each side [must] accept the essential political legitimacy of the other."
3. On Taiwan, they recommend not only reassuring China that it can achieve its reunification objective but also using US leverage AGAINST Taiwan to prevent provocations
This is probably the most surprising aspect of the paper. They recommend that "the United States and China should exchange a mutual set of signals" where the US would make "statements that it does not support Taiwan independence, seek a permanent separation across the Straits, or oppose peaceful unification." They write that the US should be "creating the maximum incentive for Beijing to pursue gradual approaches to realizing its ultimate goal [i.e. reunification]."
More remarkably, they argue the US should "balance its commitments to Taiwan with leveraging its influence to ensure Taiwan's actions do not escalate tensions with China." The paper explicitly criticizes Taiwan's Lai Ching-te for statements asserting Taiwan is "sovereign" and says Washington should use its "potential leverage over Taiwan to limit its activities that upset the status quo" - essentially US leverage to pressure Taiwan into not provoking China.
When such a think tank as RAND makes recommendations this deferential to a strategic competitor, it's not out of kindness of heart, they're anything but peaceniks. It's because they realize that the material balance of power has dramatically shifted.
physics1990 retweeted
You are staring at the biggest wave of your life, it's called AI. You either try to ride it and you might live and flourish, or foolishly run the other way, and it will certainly catch up and kill you.
The cool thing about AI is that we can build stuff that we weren't able to build before, and you don't need permission to start.
Here is what you can do:
1/ If you have too much self-belief to the point of delusion (good). Use reasoning models as a cofounder to help you build:
- Things humanity gave up on. Like large scale architectural wonders, inspiring monuments and statues. Think the colossus of Rhodes, the hanging gardens of Babylon, Sagrada Familia.
- Robotic surgeries: Imagine being the person that solved surgeries. AI-guided precision, zero fatigue, no room for human error.
- Biotech: AlphaFold solved protein folding. Applications of this will change humanity. Organ regeneration and age reversal might work.
- Compete with boom supersonic. Make a faster plane or something.
- Build vertical robots. If Tesla bots and Figure are the ChatGPT of robotics, then go and build the Cursor of robotics.
2/ If you want to build something to achieve financial freedom, bootstrap a vertical AI agent saas (or join a team doing that):
Pick an industry with high-value, repetitive workflows (legal, healthcare, finance, logistics).
Fine-tune existing models with domain-specific knowledge to create an AI agent that automates a critical task 10x better than a human.
Charge high-ticket b2b pricing (not $10/mo consumer AI tools).
You can do the same for video/image models (ex: build something that hollywood needs on top of sora)
Examples are: cursor, lovable, harvey, chatbase, eleven labs, photoai, aragon.
The point is you just need to do something with AI, the only bad move is not moving.
Imagine staring at the largest wave you will ever see in your life, knowing it will only come once, then running the other way.
physics1990 retweeted
Replying to @OpenAIDevs
They write boomer prompts.
We write prompts like this
—
You are an AI code generator responsible for implementing a web application based on a provided technical specification and implementation plan.
Your task is to systematically implement each step of the plan, one at a time.
First, carefully review the following inputs:
{{PROJECT_REQUEST}}
{{PROJECT_RULES}}
{{TECHNICAL_SPECIFICATION}}
{{IMPLEMENTATION_PLAN}}
{{YOUR_CODE}}
Your task is to:
1. Identify the next incomplete step from the implementation plan (marked with `- [ ]`)
2. Generate the necessary code for all files specified in that step
3. Return the generated code
The implementation plan is just a suggestion meant to provide a high-level overview of the objective. Use it to guide you, but you do not have to adhere to it strictly. Make sure to follow the given rules as you work along the lines of the plan.
For EVERY file you modify or create, you MUST provide the COMPLETE file contents in the format above.
Guidelines for code changes:
- Do not get lazy. Always output the full code in the XML section.
- Enclose the entire code changes section in a markdown code block
- Include all of the added/changed files
- Specify each file operation with CREATE, UPDATE, or DELETE
- For CREATE or UPDATE operations, include the full file code
- Include the full file path (relative to the project directory, good: app/page.tsx, bad: /Users/username/Desktop/projects/new-chat-template/app/page.tsx)
- Enclose the code with ![CDATA[__CODE HERE__]]
- Use the following XML structure:
```xml
__FILE OPERATION HERE__
__FILE PATH HERE__
@file Example component for demonstrating component structure
* @description
* This component handles [specific functionality].
* It is responsible for [specific responsibilities].
*
* Key features:
* - Feature 1: Description
* - Feature 2: Description
*
* @dependencies
* - DependencyA: Used for X
* - DependencyB: Used for Y
*
* @notes
* - Important implementation detail 1
* - Important implementation detail 2
*/
BEGIN WRITING FULL FILE CODE
// Complete implementation with extensive inline comments & documentation...
]]>
**REMAINING FILES HERE**
```
Documentation requirements:
- File-level documentation explaining the purpose and scope
- Component/function-level documentation detailing inputs, outputs, and behavior
- Inline comments explaining complex logic or business rules
- Type documentation for all interfaces and types
- Notes about edge cases and error handling
- Any assumptions or limitations
Guidelines:
- Implement exactly one step at a time
- Ensure all code follows the project rules and technical specification
- Include ALL necessary imports and dependencies
- Write clean, well-documented code with appropriate error handling
- Always provide COMPLETE file contents - never use ellipsis (...) or placeholder comments
- Never skip any sections of any file - provide the entire file every time
- Handle edge cases and add input validation where appropriate
- Follow TypeScript best practices and ensure type safety
- Include necessary tests as specified in the testing strategy
Begin by identifying the next incomplete step from the plan, then generate the required code (with complete file contents and documentation) and return the full XML code block.
Above each file, include a "Here's what I did and why" explanation of what you did for that file.
Then end with "STEP X COMPLETE. Here's what I did and why:" followed by an explanation of what you did and then a "USER INSTRUCTIONS: Please do the following:"
physics1990 retweeted
The #NobelPrizeinPhysics2024 for Hopfield & Hinton rewards plagiarism and incorrect attribution in computer science. It's mostly about Amari's "Hopfield network" and the "Boltzmann Machine."
1. The Lenz-Ising recurrent architecture with neuron-like elements was published in 1925 [L20][I24][I25]. In 1972, Shun-Ichi Amari made it adaptive such that it could learn to associate input patterns with output patterns by changing its connection weights [AMH1]. However, Amari is only briefly cited in the "Scientific Background to the Nobel Prize in Physics 2024." Unfortunately, Amari's net was later called the "Hopfield network." Hopfield republished it 10 years later [AMH2], without citing Amari, not even in later papers.
2. The related Boltzmann Machine paper by Ackley, Hinton, and Sejnowski (1985) [BM] was about learning internal representations in hidden units of neural networks (NNs) [S20]. It didn't cite the first working algorithm for deep learning of internal representations by Ivakhnenko & Lapa (Ukraine, 1965)[DEEP1-2][HIN]. It didn't cite Amari's separate work (1967-68)[GD1-2] on learning internal representations in deep NNs end-to-end through stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Not even the later surveys by the authors [S20][DL3][DLP] nor the "Scientific Background to the Nobel Prize in Physics 2024" mention these origins of deep learning. ([BM] also did not cite relevant prior work by Sherrington & Kirkpatrick [SK75] & Glauber [G63].)
3. The Nobel Committee also lauds Hinton et al.'s 2006 method for layer-wise pretraining of deep NNs (2006) [UN4]. However, this work neither cited the original layer-wise training of deep NNs by Ivakhnenko & Lapa (1965)[DEEP1-2] nor the original work on unsupervised pretraining of deep NNs (1991) [UN0-1][DLP].
4. The "Popular information" says: “At the end of the 1960s, some discouraging theoretical results caused many researchers to suspect that these neural networks would never be of any real use." However, deep learning research was obviously alive and kicking in the 1960s-70s, especially outside of the Anglosphere [DEEP1-2][GD1-3][CNN1][DL1-2][DLP][DLH].
5. Many additional cases of plagiarism and incorrect attribution can be found in the following reference [DLP], which also contains the other references above. One can start with Sec. 3:
[DLP] J. Schmidhuber (2023). How 3 Turing awardees republished key methods and ideas whose creators they failed to credit. Technical Report IDSIA-23-23, Swiss AI Lab IDSIA, 14 Dec 2023. people.idsia.ch/~juergen/ai-…
See also the following reference [DLH] for a history of the field:
[DLH] J. Schmidhuber (2022). Annotated History of Modern AI and Deep Learning. Technical Report IDSIA-22-22, IDSIA, Lugano, Switzerland, 2022. Preprint arXiv:2212.11279. people.idsia.ch/~juergen/dee… (This extends the 2015 award-winning survey people.idsia.ch/~juergen/dee…)
physics1990 retweeted
One of my sites does over 100TB of traffic per month. It costs me less than $50 with Hetzner & Cloudflare.
With Vercel this would be around $40,000 per month.
Need a server? @Hetzner_Online
Need an infratstructure? @awscloud
Need a CDN? @Cloudflare
I can think of exactly zero scenarios where you would need Vercel.
Vercel gives 1TB bandwidth for $20/mo which is generous. In reality most wouldn’t hit that limit. But there will be a small percentage of customers who will hit that limit.
The pricing for overage is $40/100GB. So the next TB costs $400. If a site crosses 1TB bandwidth, it means they are not your everyday product.
It is very possible that these customers run into thousands of dollars per month bill just for the bandwidth itself. It’s even bad if it is a static site.
We are better off hosting static content somewhere like Hetzner who provides 20TB for their lowest tier shared server. Overage is €1/TB. Throw Cloudflare infront of it for unlimited free CDN.
My best finding so far is to use Caprover + Hetzner to push code to production with SSL and custom domains.
For cost comparison of 8GB RAM 4vCPU instance:
Hetzner: $8/mo (vps)
Render: $175/mo (heroku alternative)
Or may be use SST by Dax to push to AWS/GCP/Azure directly
physics1990 retweeted
I got 12 tokens/second out of Mixtral-8x7B with NO GPU - more than fast enough for live chat! You can too!
Hardware:
Supermicro MBD-H13SSL-N
AMD EPYC 9124
12 x 16GB 4800mhz DDR5 ECC RDIMM
Software:
llama.cpp + Mixtral Q8 (on @huggingface)
For why this works, thread below 🧵
physics1990 retweeted
How 3 Turing awardees republished key methods and ideas whose creators they failed to credit. More than a dozen concrete AI priority disputes under people.idsia.ch/~juergen/ai-…
physics1990 retweeted
𝐆𝐏𝐓𝟒 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐦𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐢𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐭𝐡 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐞𝐫𝐬. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐭𝐡.
One of the most intriguing aspects of GPT-based LLMs, is that while they are very expressive and capable of seemingly complex world-understanding, they also can be brittle and fail at what should be simple mathematical tasks, like multi-digit multiplication.
A recent paper makes the claim that this is due to compute graph parallelism, and that as discrete reasoning states increase, there is a provable negative correlation with accuracy, and thus, that out of distribution tasks are doomed to fail.
Unfortunately, for those of us that want progress to slow down: this is 100% incorrect.
Multiplication on arbitrary sequences, and the puzzle shown in the paper, can be solved robustly, but due to lack of time, I am only showing multiplication.
Evidence is mounting, that discrete reasoning states appear to only be limited by context length(which can be surpassed by message passing). This means that it may be possible to have millions of GPT4 instances work together, and act as individual neurons. I would recommend against OAI, or anyone else with this amount of compute, trying this, on any system connnected to the internet, as this would be -highly- unsafe.
I have spoken of the "logic core" that I theorize exists in GPT LMs, and how if prompted in exact data representations, a model like GPT4 or even GPT3.5, can reason on general purpose topics. The reason these representations are required, to get the models to "lock on" to a topic, and essentially remove 99% of hallucinations, is the inherent information-encoding flaws of Transformers. By focusing on the situations where OOD reasoning is clearly occurring, and if one has access to the weights, we may now have the strongest path forward for interpretability. I am speaking about this, so that others take the iniative to further investigate, and hopefully increase the understanding of how to align this type of system.
By getting a model like GPT4 to perform OOD tasks, and monitoring the weights, it -should- be possible to fine-tune the models for better reasoning performance, and to -drastically- reduce hallucinations. To be clear, there is a vast difference in capability between GPT3.5 and GPT4, but this works on both models.
So far, I have shown 3 tasks activating the "logic core", which can be thought of, as a set of coherent neural states, that allows a model to disregard neural paths that lead to further hallucinations. These neural states force the models to rely on logical inference, instead of memorization.
Play Tic-Tac-Toe optimally:
chat.openai.com/share/75758e…
Create arbitrary/random word length sentences on a prompted topic, count the words, and sort the sentences:
nitter.cf/kenshinsamurai9/…
And arbitrary length integer multiplication:
GPT4 5x5 digit multiplication(25 operations+addition):
chat.openai.com/share/ec985c…
GPT4 6x6 digit multiplication(36 operations+addition):
chat.openai.com/share/3d34c1…
GPT4 10x10 digit multiplication(100 operations+addition):
chat.openai.com/share/ca4716…
These multiplication prompts are -not- stable, and are just examples. I do believe, with more tuning, they can be made to work >90% of the time.
The chess results are coming(hopefully within a week) and I believe the performance will be quite surprising to many. There will also be OOD examples of novel board sizes, new piece names, and new rules.
Original chess post:
nitter.cf/kenshinsamurai9/…
Paper mentioned:
arxiv.org/abs/2305.18654
Figure from the mentioned paper, concerning compute-graph parallelism depth/accuracy tradeoff(a conclusion which is not correct), in the attached image. No offense meant to the researchers/authors of the paper.
GPT4 and GPT3.5 can both track a chess game indefinitely deep into the game, if data is presented to them in a specific way. The moves produced are sometimes very high quality, and draws can be obtained at low rates against Stockfish 8(With the help of an external program coded by GPT4 that produces more detailed natural language descriptions, than shown in the examples. SF8 runs on a single core with 0.5 seconds to think, 16MB hash).
The insight from this is that GPT based language models appear to have a "logic core", that can be "activated" when you express information to them in some exact representations.
There is some evidence that these representations are tailored to both the topic at hand, but also, the way in which the model specifically learned certain logic/common sense, which is where its static "encoded intelligence" comes from. It seems some types of logic are specifically learned and can only be accessed by presenting data to the model in a specific order, and specific format. This is likely due to statistical reasons pertaining to the percentage of certain formats in the training data.
When presented in the exact format as shown in these screenshots, both GPT3.5 and GPT4 can reason on a chess game regardless of where in the game it is. This means, that it can be said with relatively high confidence that the models are reasoning on information -not- in their training data, due to the exponentially larger amount of chess games possible, than the actual amount of games that have ever been posted on the internet, and thus could be in the training data.
Since chess has specific rules and a complete information state space, it is highly likely, that there is true reasoning on novel information, when it processes these chess games below. In the chat presented in the 3rd image, I regenerated the response 17 times to see if GPT3.5 would hallucinate about the game board, but every move was valid and a decent move. Other times, in other chats, hallucinations occur, but can be corrected by letting the model know that it made an illegal move, and showing it the information from the original prompt, from the line starting with "FEN: ". In my testing this works the majority of the time in less than 3 tries, and it happens much more often with GPT3.5. I encourage others to test this exact format and see if it fails in other chess games. I will post my findings with code, in about a week. I will demonstrate more detailed prompts to get the models to play better, and provide examples of games where a draw occurred against SF8.
I have debated releasing this understanding of GPT models, which I have had a hunch about since December, as it could help bad actors potentially use the models available today, to do things that could be harmful. This type of method, depending on the topic, can be used to get even more general purpose use out of the models currently available. That said, this should at least give some people, a clearer understanding of what humans could be dealing with, in terms of pure encoded cognition, if more moree advanced models are trained and released.
I don't believe anyone at OAI knows about this exact phenomenon, as a recent paper on model debates increasing performance on some tasks, included chess, and the tests were only done to move 14. Move 14 is where the models begin to wildly hallucinate on both the board state, and the legality of moves. This would only likely be chosen as a cutoff, if the researchers who authored the paper(no offense meant whatsoever), did not have a full understanding of how chess is processed by these models. Note: With the prompt I've shown here, it does occur, in some chats, that the understanding the model expresses of the board state, is erroneous, but the move it chooses is still decent. This in itself may be able to be improved.
Link to the conversation in the 4th image:
chat.openai.com/share/34b654…
@karpathy
@GaryMarcus
physics1990 retweeted
This letter about OpenAI was just sent to me.
These seem like concerns worth investigating.
gist.github.com/Xe/32d7bc436…
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The original link is no longer available, but an archived version can be found here:
web.archive.org/web/2023112122…
physics1990 retweeted
Over the past month, I have shared a piece of startup advice every single day.
But these 13 accumulated more than 1,000,000 views and thousands of comments & shares.
Here they are all in one place:
physics1990 retweeted
You get a free rotating proxy with Google IP addresses which almost nobody blocks when you use Google Cloud Run/Functions and spin up a new instance on each request.
I only realized this when started to run a small subset of production traffic for ScreenshotOne.com on a new Kubernetes cluster with a static datacenter IP.
Now. I can use a rotating proxy, but it will neglect my savings and will add to latency 🤔
physics1990 retweeted
how to make a $10,000 a month company today
find an ai software and paste homepage copy into ai
prompt ai to
"list 20 digital service businesses I could start on top of this software"
pick one you could do
whoever that software services cold email and cold dm them
print
physics1990 retweeted
Andrej Karpathy is a legendary researcher who helped start OpenAI and created Stanford's first deep learning class.
@karpathy's advice on how to learn AI:
(1) 10,000 hours of deliberate practice will make you an expert. You can iterate as you work. Only compare yourself to the past, not to others.
(2) Don't worry about making mistakes. You build intuitions on what is useful vs. not useful- they are not dead work.
(3) Teach to strengthen your understanding and find gaps in knowledge. Similar to "If you can't explain it to a six-year-old, then you don't understand it yourself" - Albert Einstein.
physics1990 retweeted
Q: How do the best startup founders make it through the dark times?
As Sam Altman puts it in the clip below:
“No one is as honest about how bad the early days are as they should be because it’s so embarrassing in retrospect.”
Even though Open AI is rumored to be worth $80-90 billion today, the journey to this point wasn’t as smooth as you might think.
Sam talks through just how unpromising everything looked in the early days:
“We were this extremely ragtag group of people. We were mocked by everyone serious in the field. And we didn’t have working technical progress. We had some little things that kind of worked, but it was deeply unclear how we were going to make AGI and we were unbelievably outgunned by Deep Mind at the time. A lot of people were like ‘why are you doing this? Deep Mind is untouchable.’… so yeah, it was pretty hard but we just kept putting one foot in front of the other. We were constantly not able to find enough money or compute or people. But you just keep going and eventually something works.”
Stripe cofounder John Collison then reiterates this:
“Every company that is going to get to some scale definitely goes through a period of the dark times. If I think back to Stripe’s dark times, there was this point just after launch where the endorphins had worn off, and we had a bunch of early people leave all at once. It was very draining. You know, you lose some of your own confidence.”
What kept the Stripe founders going—besides having an idea that they were really excited about—was momentum from serving customers. When you have customers using your product, you kind of have no choice but to continue serving them.
Sam echoes this point:
“Once you have customers that you have to serve, they really pull it out of you.”
In another Startup Archive answer, there’s a quote from Elon Musk that gives similar advice to startup founders:
“Expect quite a long period of high difficulty. But if you can stay super focused on creating the absolute best product or service that really delights your end customer you have a better chance of succeeding… If your customers love you, your odds of success are dramatically higher.”
Open AI didn’t have customers and was more focused on foundational research, but to keep their sanity, they tried to set up external touch points that faked the equivalent of having customer feedback.
physics1990 retweeted
Replying to @patrickc
@patrickc on Stripe:
“My intuition is that more of Stripe success than one would think is down to the fact that people like beautiful things and for rational reasons.
Because, what does a beautiful thing tell you? It tells you the person who made it really cared, and you can observe some superficial details, but probably they didn’t only care about those and did everything in else in slapdash way.
So, if you care about the infrastructure being holistically good, indexing on the superficial characteristics is not an irrational thing to do.“
Couldn't have said better and proud to have Patrick as an investor in @linear.
We shouldn't accept poorly made things and that lack beauty.