Building bots for prediction markets

Joined July 2020
Deposit Wallets are live. New signups now get a deposit wallet at the door, and ghost fills should taper off through the day as the rollout spreads. We're monitoring performance closely.
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I’ve been one of the biggest market makers on Polymarket for a long time. At peak I was doing $10M+ daily volume and paying thousands in fees every single day. The current state is the worst the platform has ever felt. Ghost fills still everywhere. Markets constantly breaking. Payouts randomly missing. Exploits going on for months while the team says “it’s fixed”. You spend more time defending against bugs than actually trading. Meanwhile, communication is a joke. They say “we’re listening” → ignore emails, ignore DMs. They say “we’ll work with top users” → instead it’s random private Telegram groups with whoever shouts the loudest. They say “issue fixed” → it clearly isn’t. At some point you stop believing anything they say. The fee situation is another one. If you’re generating serious volume and paying serious fees (thousands a day), most exchanges shower you with attention and perks. I'm not asking for that but would be nice to at least be acknowledged that you exist and have basic communication, especially after they've announced publicly multiple times that they will start doing this. Instead we got a week-long hype campaign for a “big update” that turned out to be… a hidden fee increase. How dumb do you think your users are? And then stuff like April 5th, missed referral/rebate payments, no announcement, no explanation, nothing. Just silence. That’s not a bug, that’s trust damage. The bigger issue is it feels like nobody on the team has actual trading experience. The design decisions show it. Every update introduces new edge cases, new exploits, new ways to break the order book. People have made many millions exploiting this stuff. Many of these accounts are obvious, trackable, preventable. The community has been pointing it out for months. Ignored. Only now that the markets are borderline unusable does it seem like there’s urgency. Right now the platform is honestly close to untradeable: – ghost fills – manipulation – unreliable payouts – constant bugs – zero transparency And surprise, volume is dropping. Meanwhile Kalshi is catching up fast (have basically overtaken in volume in almost every category except for politics) and Hyperliquid is entering with a team that actually understands trading systems. I want Polymarket to succeed. And yes, maybe the upcoming ghost fill fix helps. But if this pattern continues, terrible communication, fake timelines, ignoring core users, then this won’t be a place serious traders stick around. You can’t build a market while eroding the trust of the people who provide the liquidity, especially not as a many multi billion dollar company! I have spoken to many large polymarket whales (of which a considerable amount have already given up on the platform) and they all share this sentiment. @Polymarket @mustafap0ly @SuhailKakar @_kanarazu_
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"As long as there is delusion there is hope" The elephant in the room for @fantasy_top_ is the market value of cards free-falling since April this year. A few things have been tried (seasons, new league, arena) but none of them have been the solution we are looking and hoping for. I want to discuss three topics that I feel are the biggest contributors to the free-fall of card prices and what the team can do to support their community who is losing money at an unprecedented pace which is bleeding into the sentiment on the timeline. Let me preface this by saying: I love the game. I love @travisbickle0x . I love @710_eth, I love @0xKipit and @0xMikado , the builders, the mods, the community. This is not a post to "dunk" on the project. This is my perspective on a solvable problem and an attempt to help. Fantasy tournaments have three reward mechanisms: 1. FAN points 2. Fragments 3. ETH Let's dive in to why the market is losing steam. -------------- FAN POINTS -------------- A lot of Fantardio's who lost money recently on their purchases or holdings, have come to the obvious conclusion that in order to make it all back, they want to cash out by dumping $FAN allocation on TGE. This is obviously not a sustainable solution, but that doesn't mean we should not explore TGE at all. The Fantasy TGE has been the most anticipated airdrop of Summer 2024. As we are currently in Winter 2025, it is fair to say that it is now one of the least anticipated airdrops, and many doubt it will even happen (mental damage caused by Stars and ELO). This doubt in $FAN plus the fact that EVERY WEEK the number of FAN points in circulation increases, has lowered the expected value of FAN points. People were willing to not make much money on a weekly basis as they were still racking up FAN point which would eventually pay itself back at a TGE, but it's now been almost two years of inflation of points, causing billions of points to have been amassed. With FAN points not factoring in on ROI anymore, FAN as a reason to re-invest your winnings into new cards or to keep good card pulls has diminished. But this is not a lost cause. My proposed solution to this is a three-stepped approach: 1. Snapshot current FAN holdings and reset the count 2. Announce a Season 2 3. Design allocation mechanics for a potential TGE where if you only play Season 1, you get a lower multiplier. The fewer tournaments played, the lower the multiplier. Play both seasons, higher multiplier This not only DIRECTLY confirms that a TGE will still happen and putting some hope/belief back into the system, it also entices people who cashed out along the way to come back for round 2. We do need a set time limit for Season 2 (3 -5 months imo but open for debate), and a fully designed TGE plan, but we still have half a year to figure this out. You can even soft-lock part of the allocation (frame it as BONUS TOKENS) behind having to play more tournaments to unlock the tokens, ensuring not a complete standstill after TGE. This puts value back in to the FAN points we earn every week, solving part one of the rewards. -------------- FRAGMENTS -------------- It is no secret that with current market conditions, fragments just are not worth playing for. The current floor price of cards is 0.0013 ETH, or $5. You can buy 50 fragments for one floor card, which gives us a value of $0.10 per fragment (which is an optimistic price, since burning floors for fragments is about ~75% EV, so $0.075 per fragment is likely more realistic). Getting first place in Elite will give you 2500 fragments, which you can expect to get $188 for if you spend it on Jade Packs. Winning elite is not a good benchmark to look at fragments, as the money you have to spend to win ($75,000-100,000 at least) means you will never make anything significant back through fragments. Bronze is a better example: Placing in the top 10% of bronze will get you roughly top 1000 - this will give you 50 fragments, or $5. There are no ETH rewards here, and nobody really looks at the $FAN anymore. So this is just not enticing at all, considering you need to beat 90% of all decks to win $5, so you must have competitive cards. Currently, Fragments are being used as a "free" rewards mechanism for devs. They can slap a fragment reward on anything at zero cost of their own. The burn leaderboard does nothing. Nobody is burning more cards due to the burn leaderboard, but we are refunding 100,000 fragments. We are giving Fragments to Arena players, Arena heroes, grants, and while I am thankful for it and recieve fragments in these ways myself, it is clear to everyone involved that too many fragments are being printed right now. Solution - Lower fragment output by ~15%, compensate with ETH This is a tough pill to swallow and easy to shout from the sidelines, but we need to turn this boat around somehow. Remove reverse for all I care, or at least get more creative with it. ----------------- ETH REWARDS ----------------- The start of the market downturn was the huge 40% rewards nerf we saw in April of 2025, combined with a bye week. Luckily for us the bye week didn't last more than, well, a week. But the rewards nerf in ETH is still very tangible. Less ETH rewards directly means less funds available for people to re-invest into the game. I get the need for a sustainable runway, but once FAN has monetary value, we are less reliant on those ETH reserves and it is alright to blast through them at a slightly more rapid pace than we are currently doing if it brings back players, excitement, and hope to the game. Nobody knows how long this "bull" market will last. All I know is, with FAN points and Fragments already at a low point, if ETH would suddenly be <$2500 again, there is a serious lack of incentive to play core at all. And that is coming from someone who dedicated his entire online persona to this game. Solution: increase ETH rewards by 15% to compensate for the Fragment reduction ----------------- OTHER ISSUES ----------------- One of the things that I miss a lot in Fantasy is sneak-peeks, updates on what is being worked on, and what is in the pipeline. There has always been an inherent lack of transparency and communication that makes it very hard to look forward to what's coming next. We simply don't know what you are building on. Communicate MORE. I want updates on bugfixes, changelogs, get people talking about the game again on the timeline! Secondly, there is inherent sluggishness in development. I feel like since Clout was introduced and now Arena is a priority too, the updates that Core is getting are few and far between. Core needs some love, and the 6-week season means that the game is stagnant for 6-weeks at a time. Experiment more! More star changes, experiment with reverse (rotating gamemodes like closest to 2500 points wins). There is so much to explore that I feel could be a smash hit. ------- HOPE ------- I would not be speakin honestly if I didn't shine some light on the reason why we are all still here. The game fuckin slaps. Predicting virality and strategizing around the content you read every single day regardless, is insanely fun and addictive. I love Arena, I love that anyone can be a hero and I love seeing my friends in my draft picks. That just puts a smile on my face every single time. The partnerships are PHENOMENAL. We have partnered with @monad (thanks @intern & @sherlock_hodles), with MANY NFT projects along the way, and now @ParallelAiRev got us the @ParallelTCG partnership. This avenue is definitely one of the bright lights of Fantasy, as every hero has their own benefit and contacts within the industry, which means the team has those contacts indirectly as well. A lot of potential here. The community surrounding the game is insanely talented. We have @Khallid4397 and @thecarpenter creating content weekly, we have @0xthemolt, @boredsharky, @web3tool and MANY MANY other talented devs create third party websites and tools to use (findable on fantard.io/ fantasy hub!) Fantasy literally made my Web3 presence in what it is today. I will be eternally thankful for this experience no matter where we end up. If Fantasy has a million Fantardio's, I am one of them. If Fantasy has a thousand Fantardio's, I am one of them. If Fantasy has one Fantardio, I am him. If Fantasy has no Fantardio's left, I am dead. /fantardio
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It's incredible to see the amount of tools and gamified apps being built around the @fantasy_top_ ecosystem. 🙏to the team for thinking ahead and having an API for builders to jump into. I'm obviously biased toward @FantasyTopHuds but wanted to highlight a few cool observations from it. 1. Congrats to this week's podium winners in the in-app Bronze league tournament! 1st: @0xDunc 2nd: @_excedo_ 3rd: @JuanSnow They've stacked up more than a couple trophies.🏆 2. The HUD app just surpassed 100 users🥳 HUD users represent: The top 5% of players in the FT Core game, by $FAN won and leagues won. Almost 10% of all decks being played in FT Core. That means 1 out of every 10 decks is built by someone who is able to make more data-driven decisions from the HUD, which I think will compound nicely into the leagues becoming more competitive with bigger prizes for the top players. PS I think the builder, @socialsin, plans to celebrate 100 users with a nice gesture to all $HUD Points holders.👀 3. As FT evolves, it's my mission to opensource my strategies and help anyone who wants win more, to learn more. If you are a hero in Fantasy Top core, and you play the game, reach out to me if you want a HUD Pro Player and Pro Trader subscription for FREE for the rest of the year. 4. One area I think the HUD could evolve into with another product is possibly on Farcaster, via a mini app that could do something PvP. If anyone sees a cool opportunity there, please reach out. I'm happy to throw some resources at it, and I know SocialSin is already experimenting with building on Farcaster. 5. Beyond the HUD app, be sure to check out @web3tool's Fanscan(dot)live and his Dune dashboard. @boredsharky's fanfanpro(dot)com, and @nils116's King of the Hill weekly game through ftoptimizor(dot)xyz. Fanscan is a great visual livefeed of what's being opened, burned, and level ups. FanFanPro has great visuals and analytics of heroes and players. King of the Hill is a fun weekly mini game, and I like the distribution of it on X. I hope everyone keeps shipping! 🤠
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A few simple tips for new Fantasy.top players -hopefully some will help seasoned players too: 1⃣ Start small. Buy low-cost cards first; play in Bronze and Reverse leagues while you learn the mechanics. It keeps mistakes cheap. 2⃣ Keep some liquidity in reserve. Once you set your initial investment, don’t spend it all at once. Save some for future weeks - star changes mean you’ll need to draft again later. 3⃣ Try to buy with bids. It’s not always easy and takes time to set up, but over the long run, bidding boosts your results. 4⃣ Use helpful info resources: Twitter: @Khallid4397 (super insightful) fantasysheets.xyz by @0xthemolt fanfanpro.com by @boredsharky fanscan.live by @web3tool These are the tools I use - every one is full of useful insights and made with real passion. 5⃣ Get involved. Fantasy.top is more than a game - it’s a community. Join chats, hop into discussions on Twitter, ask questions and participate! The more active you are, the deeper you'll get and the more you’ll learn. You’ll always get advice and support - seriously. Test it out - including right under this post!👇
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5 new heroes just dropped in @fantasy_top_ 🔥 I analyzed their Twitter activity, timing & trends — here’s my current ranking: 1️⃣ Serpin Taxt 2️⃣ Tony 3️⃣ s4mmy 4️⃣ mary 5️⃣ Legendary Full analysis + charts below 👇
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THE FANTASY TOOLSHED 🔧🔨 To compete on @fantasy_top_ , you can use many tools that will help you get ahead on the site. They can all be found on fantard.io, but what do they all do exactly? Here is a COMPLETE overview on every tool there is, and what it is good for! -------------------- FANTASYSHEETS -------------------- fantasysheets.xyz/ FantasySheets by @0xthemolt is the first real third-party website that the game ever saw. It started out as a simple Excel sheet displaying scoring history and other analytics that helped to choose what heroes are consistently good. Currently, the website has expanded far beyont that and shows almost every statistic you can think of! Regarding rewards, the heroes, the tournaments itself, the marketplace, it should be your first stop for any statistics regarding the game you want to see! ------------ FANSCAN ------------ fanscan.live/ FanScan by @web3tool is the perfect tool to track minting and pack opening activities, where you can zoom in on specific users and specific card rarities. I use it a lot to see if it is worth it to open Shiny packs, as there is a tab that shows the average ROI of the last 50 Shiny pack openings! It is usually worth it around 0.045, so keep a good eye on it! You can also use the tool to track who is upgrading their cards to compete in Elite or Gold leagues. --------------- FANFANPRO --------------- fanfanpro.com/ FanFanPro by @boredsharky is another great statistical piece of work where you can easily track hero performance to decide who you want to buy. My favorite unique feature is the ability to search a player, and find out their achievements on the game. I also like the overview and simplicity in finding previous tourneys and what decks the top players used! Lastly, I love the research tab where you can find exactly what the 'best' heroes are, the heroes that won the most tourneys, or placed in the top 10 most often. Super useful if you are looking to build a new deck from scratch or to find that perfect fit! ------------------------ FANTASY TOP HUDS ------------------------ fthuds.com/ FTHuds by @FantasyTopHuds / @MooneyMillions is a unique piece of (paid) content created by a team designed to help you win. It runs analysis for you and helps you build decks on a budget, or build the highest caliber decks possible regardless of cost. It is a very versatile tool that can be very useful as a beginner, a pro, or as a trader. There isa free option you can check out before comitting to the paid version! ----------------- FT OPTIMIZOR ----------------- ftoptimizor.xyz/ FT Optimizor by @nils116 stems from an ancient time of Fantasy where we did not have the magic autocomplete button. It was introduced for players to create an optimal deck based on the cards they have, and it still does that! Only now it has many many more options, and you can finetune exactly how you want to calculate what deck you should play next week. Easy to import your cards as well, and a real legacy tool that's been around for ages! ---------------------- CORE DASHBOARD ---------------------- dune.com/hildobby/fantasy The Core Dune Dashboard by @hildobby is a super nice piece of data information where you can track card supply, active users, new users, treasury flows, hero earnings, and much more. This is definitely more for the analytical player who wants to learn EVERYTHING about fantasy there is to know. Little sidenote - it has not been adjusted yet since the move to Base from Blast, and it is unclear if @hildobby is working on porting it over. I would love to see it as I check it often! -------------------------- MONAD DASHBOARD -------------------------- flipsidecrypto.xyz/permary/f… The Monad dashboard by @_permary shows a lot of the same information as the Hildobby's Dune dashboard, but for the free-to-play edition of Fantasy on the @monad blockchain. Lots of information and user metrics that is very technical and fun to explore if you are interested! ------------------------ FANTARDIO WEBSITE ------------------------ fantard.io That was a LONG post! If only there was a singular website or hub that would have all these tools available in a single space... Oh wait, you are telling me that exists? It does! I made it myself, over on fantard.io. You can find every single tool mentioned here on there, but also much more, like social links of all devs, some links to the best community creators and even a full guide on how to play the game. ----------------- FINAL WORDS ----------------- MASSIVE shoutout to all the super talented devs mentioned in this post. They all work hard to make our game just a little more fun and that should not be taken for granted. If you are missing any apps, please let me know, I will add them to fantard.io as well! And don't forget: $FAN to a dollar. /fantardio
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🚨BREAKING @fantasy_top_ News🚨 I'm running an experiment, where I want to bankroll and coach a couple Fantasy Top players in Tactics🧩 WHY? The new DFS style tactics are a great entry point to Fantasy Top (better than the Monad F2P IMO). I also know a lot of potential Core players are on the fence of playing and need a couple more resources and basic strategy before jumping in. That's exactly where I can help. HOW IT'LL WORK I will pay for 100% of your tactics as a "bankroll." I will give you access to @FantasyTopHuds. We'll jam on data and strategy. You'll freely enter tactics any time they open up. WHAT I WANT TO HAPPEN/THE DELIVERABLE You to learn the game inside and out. You to "graduate" into a beast on Fantasy Top Core, from your split of the Tactics winnings. If this is interesting to you, comment below, DM me, or tag me in Discord. 🤠
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The best heroes in @fantasy_top_ are mispriced by 500%, and how you can win $100,000+ playing the best crypto game in existence. If you want more people to discover and play FT, please share this post far and wide. You should also bookmark it and use it as a reference, as you advance through each section and level up within FT. -- Who am I? I’m a full-time founder (IRL farmer), trying to make the world a better place through building restaurants with farms inside of them (Clayton Farms Salads).🥗 You can learn everything about me, by visiting Clayton Mooney dot com. I’m currently ranked 4th globally in Fantasy Top. -- As you read below, remember that the FT team has built a game that’s simple to start, complex to master. NFA/DYOR I’ll link past and referenced writings in the comment below this post. -- Section 1: The best tools in the game🔧 Best tool for league stats & rewards: @0xthemolt's FantasySheets dot xyz Best tool for learning mints and burns in real time: @web3tool's fanscan dot live Best tool for hero and player data visualized: @boredsharky's fanfanpro dot com Best tool for determining heroes for decks: @FantasyTopHuds All encompassing website: check out @Fantardio's fantard dot io. If you want to master the game and win hundreds of thousands of dollars playing it, you need to utilize all the tools I mention above. Section 2: The best resources in the game📚 Best weekly written strategy for Monad and Core FT: @Khallid4397 Best weekly audio roundup: @fantasy_hour_ PS: Khallid and @thecarpenter host weekly deck building streams on Saturday morning, too. Best weekly video stream roundup: @Metaverse_HQ Best FT Discord community: @newblastcity Every resource mentioned above is a must follow, if you want to win hundreds of thousands of dollars playing FT. Section 3: Time in the game > timing the game⏳ Now that you’ve got the tools and resources sorted, you need to jump into FT core. Especially before the FT team rolls out their next big onboarding initiative, and we see a giant supply crunch. I believe the healthiest way to view the game is to think in terms of your collection having 52 chances (weekly tournaments) to provide you with a return, or APR (beyond the card prices, which I’ll cover below). That means you should try to put as much of your collection to work in decks, every week. My general rule of thumb is to burn the floor heroes (it’s fine to sell them, too) for Jade packs, in sets of 10 (burning 10+ heroes at a time provides you with the maximum fragment bonus).🔥 Then sell mid-tier heroes that can’t place in top 50, at least 75% of the time. I understand that league restrictions prevent us from selling all mid-tier heroes, but using the tools and resources above, every week, will help you to have more clarity of the top and bottom half of the mid-tier heroes.💲 You should be working toward building a collection of the most consistent, best heroes in the game. Fantasy Top HUDs can help you determine who those heroes are, from its 2 main metrics: True EV (long term expected score) and Trending EV (short term expected score). The closer the True and Trending EV is for a hero, the more consistent they are. If you follow this general rule set, you’ll begin to compound winnings and collection value. I follow my own rules. I’ve won 4 ETH in just the past 15 weeks, not including my collection value appreciation.📈 Section 4: Conviction in clones ♣️♣️♣️♣️♣️ Now that you have the tools, resources, and general strategy of building a collection, you’re winning more. Let’s shift gears to finding the most mispriced heroes. Here’s my strategy for doing that. Step 1⃣ I find the most consistent heroes within the Fantasy Top HUD. The most consistent heroes are those with similar True and Trending EVs. Step 2⃣ I determine how often their stars have changed, and then look at their current supply as a market cap, and current Inflation Degree (ID). Step 3⃣ I add ratios and current floor prices between their rarities. By step 3, I see arbitrage opportunities. This is fun if you’re flipping/trading, but I’m thinking long-term, so I move to Step 4. Step 4⃣ I build an algo that sorts the most consistent heroes by market cap, % available in marketplace, their tag within the HUD (i.e. politics, trading), and their current price discrepancy between peers. Step 5⃣ I build out their EV of scores over the next 4 weeks. If it hits above a certain threshold of points, I then see if their price trend matches it. If it already does, they’re likely priced in. If it doesn’t, then the hero is mispriced. If the hero is mispriced by > 100% according to my math, that’s when I’m sweeping and taking a position.🧹 The reason for sweeping is my conviction = I want to play as many decks with that hero as I possibly can. I call this building clone armies (look at my collection to see what I mean). I’ve been playing clone armies for about 5 months now. More top ranked players like @ottosuwen are also adopting this strategy.🤝 Here’s my results of hero sweeps so far, to which my algos and sweeps have yet to be matched by any other player in the game. In Dec, I swept @TheFlowHorse. My cost basis is .035 each. Current floor is .069. +97% in 5 months. In Dec, I swept @icobeast. My cost basis is .1 each. Current floor is .185. +85% in 5 months. In Jan, I swept @frankdegods. My cost basis is .035 each. Current floor is .021, as he’s been MIA and will be rotated out for other 6-8 star heroes. In Jan, I swept @rasmr_eth. My cost basis is .09. Current floor is .11. +22% in 3 months. In Jan, I swept @wizardofsoho. My cost basis is .065. Current floor is .105. +61% in 3 months. In Feb, I swept @notthreadguy. My cost basis is .07. Current floor is .044. -37% in 2 months. In March, I swept @0xMakesy. My cost basis is .018. Current floor is .028. +55% in 1 month. I’m the largest holder in the game for many of these heroes. I’ll continue to accumulate, as they are INCREDIBLY undervalued in APR, price appreciation, and supply. Section 5: Conviction in data—AKA why heroes are mispriced by 500%💱 I’ve written other in depth posts on mispriced heroes before that I’ll link below this post. But let’s recap with updated numbers. Each week, there are about 700,000 fragments awarded across 5 league tournaments. Let’s make the following assumptions. · 30% are used to spin the lucky wheel. Of the lucky wheel spins, 45% land on a pack for a card · 50% are used in opening Jade packs · 5% are used in opening Emerald packs · 3% are used in opening Sapphire packs · 2% are used in opening Lavender packs · 10% of fragments sit in accounts for various reasons (just shy of wheel spin, being saved up for rarer packs or new heroes) · 100 Shiny packs sold each week That gives us a total of ~6,000 cards added each week. Inflation Degree helps us to understand what those 6,000 cards are going to look like. · Inflation Degree ranges from 1 to 100 · Inflation Degree is updated on Sundays for heroes · The higher the Inflation Degree, the more of a hero's card will be opened · While the algos aren’t public, here’s how I think about them For every 100 packs opened, you’ll receive ~35 heroes with Inflation Degree of 50 or above ~20 heroes with Inflation Degree of 30 or above ~16 heroes with Inflation Degree of 25 or above ~15 heroes with Inflation Degree of 15 or above ~10 heroes with Inflation Degree of 10 or above ~3 heroes with Inflation Degree of 5 or above ~1 hero with Inflation Degree of 1 or 2 Main 46 just wrapped up, and 6,000 cards have been added to the game. The current best heroes in the game have Inflation Degrees of 5 or below. That means out of the 6,000 packs opened, 4%, or about 240 copies of the best heroes were added to the game. If there’s about 30 heroes covering those 240 copies, you will end up with something like · 120 Inflation Degree 4-5 heroes · 80 Inflation Degree 3-4 heroes · 25 Inflation Degree 2-3 heroes · 15 Inflation Degree 1-2 heroes That’s only 15 Ansems, Gregs, and/or IcoBeasts added this week, best case scenario. It’s easy to see how demand is outpacing supply for the top heroes. Level ups also reduce 4 copies of each hero, and it’s happening every single day. We’ll look back on this game in a few years to realize Inflation Degree and level ups were two of its greatest innovations and reasons it’s still around and growing. -- Let’s take a look at Horse. When I swept Horse in December, there were 166 commons. Today, 4 months later, there are 206 commons. Horse’s Inflation Degree has ranged from 3-6. From my back of the napkin math, Horse’s supply should be at closer to 300 commons, which meant his supply increase should be at 80% over 4 months, or 240% per year. Instead, it’s only at 25% over 4 months, or 75% per year. What does that mean? Check out the chart below. -- Let’s break down IcoBeast next. When I swept Beast in December, there were 162 commons. Today, 4 months later, there are 162 commons. Beast’s Inflation Degree has ranged from 1-2. From my back of the napkin math, Beast’s supply should be at closer to 250 commons, which meant his supply increase should be at 55% over 4 months, or 165% per year. Instead, it’s up 0% in 4 months. I’ve personally burnt 15 commons for 3 rare copies. And before you think it’s not fair, or I’m lucky. I spent A LOT of time on building my mispriced hero algorithms like I mention above. I posted my Beast sweep analysis on December 27. You’ve had 107 days to copy trade me. The good news for both of us? He’s still mispriced by 500%. How? Check out the chart below. -- Let’s break down Makesy next. When I swept Makesy in March, there were 2,750 commons. Today, 1 month later, there are 2,856 commons. Makesy’s Inflation Degree has ranged from 8-15. Makesy’s supply has grown 4% over the past month, or 48% per year. His price has grown 55% in 1 month. The biggest driver is players are realizing Makesy is the best utility hero. But less than 10% of all FT players realize this. How do I know? Only 70% of Makesy cards were played in Main 46 (his on week as a 1 star). Only ~1,350 of the ~8,200 Bronze decks had Makesy. I see at least one question per day by a new Monad FT player, asking which cards in FT Core they should consider picking up. The majority of the answers? Makesy. We’re early, and that’s why Makesy’s chart is wild, too. Check it out below. +220% for a hero with 3,000+ copies in rotation is possible? Yes. ID, Market Cap, and Utility creates a crazy dynamic in this game we love. Section 6: The playbook FT is running to reach 100,000 DAUs in Core💯 At the beginning of February, I wrote about how I thought FT would reach 100,000 DAUs. Step 1: I guessed the team would launch something similar to Magic Arena, a Free-to-Play (F2P) app that helped people experience the game, before taking a step into FT Core. 2 weeks later, they launched F2P FT Monad and hit 500,000 decks entered. Step 2: I guessed the team would launch a platform, focused on “making anyone a hero” like they’ve teased before. I guessed it’d be a combination of Kaito meets Ethos. Many of us have seen the screenshot or loaded FT Core to see “Clout” on the sidebar. The word, “clout,” has me thinking the FT platform will give a reason for everyone to visit each day, whether you’re playing Core or not. A byproduct of doing so is a flywheel effect to onboard tens of thousands of more players—especially when they and their friends can be rewarded with $FAN and becoming a hero within the game.🤯 This platform launch has to be the next big product by the FT team. I expect it to launch before their 1 year anniversary/Main 52. When this happens, you can expect to see the DAUs skyrocket. The Core competitions skyrocket. The supply crunch skyrocket. It’ll all be going up and to the right. Section 7: What it’ll take for you to win $100,000 in FT💰 Everything I’ve talked about so far is what you need in order to be at the top of your FT game. $100,000 isn’t crazy, when you realize that 52 weeks’ worth of competition pays out almost $20,000,000. And that’s if nothing in the game grew or evolved, staying flat… Just like anything else in life that someone has a chance to be competitive with, it takes obsession and conviction. Section 8: FT’s success as a company🏗️ All of us appreciate how quickly @travisbickle0x, @0xMikado, @0xKipit, and the team have iterated and shipped.🚢 From their recent seed round announcement, we can speculate that the team has runway through December 2026. But their paths to profitability are clear with more FT Core players. And I think their platform launch can bring in additional revenue like Kaito has for its customers. I also think @710_eth's community outreach will continue to bring us WLs, ALs, airdrops, and more F2P opportunities within brand new ecosystems—that’s good for all players, and it will add to your path to winning $100,000. I also believe that FT will grow to have its own Pro Tour (link in post below). Talk about additional paths to winning $100,000, as well as soulbound legendary cards.👀 Section 9: Other products and parallels I’m thinking about🎁 Fantasy Top HUDs was just an idea 8 months ago. Then Myself and @socialsin shipped v0.1. Flash forward to today, and we have over 400 users across the Free Player HUD, Player HUD Pro, and Monad Player HUD.📊 About 25% of the top 10 spots across each league every week are HUD users. While we’re working on a new Pro HUD that’ll launch in June, here’s other FT products and ideas I’m working on or funding to launch. A) A FT Prediction Market. We already have test/experimental markets going in the New Blast City Discord. I played Predict dot Fun’s “who will win” FT markets every week. That was the tip of the iceberg for what could be done. A game on top of the FT game is awesome, and we already know the FT team supports it, with their expansion of APIs. B) Turning @FantasyTopHuds into a bot on X, which provides anyone who tags it and asks a question about a hero, with insights. We have v0.1 live now. It’s limited to ~15 responses per day. Try it out by tagging it and asking about any hero in the game. PS you don’t have to even tag the hero, and you can ask in thousands of different ways.🤖 C) I’ve personally brought over 50 players into the game so far, with combined collections now well over 100 ETH. While all of us who write about FT have found our own niches, I’d like to think I’m a top voice and player, when it comes to competitive play. My results and data speak for themselves. I’ve competed at the highest levels of competition in other games (2x Halo State Champion, Magic: The Gathering City Champion for Iowa, Pro Tours, Pro poker with 45 tournament wins). I KNOW I could architect and create a world class FT Pro Tour, if the team would want me to.🤠 Good luck, have fun, keep practicin'!
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🆕 CARD HOLDERS on roids fantasysheets.xyz the same data you see in the app on hero > holders, BUT more informative and actionable 💪 improvements: 1) player trading / main activity - identify who might have forgotten about their cards and willing to sell 2) view and filter players that have sell orders/listings; lowest listing per rarity in 🟡 3) fully sortable with no pagination
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Hi, frens. This time, no post-mortems, only predictions. In main #44, we have a situation where the two most dominant heroes in top decks (Makesy and db) have one star each and have the highest expected score/star value, so we should build our decks through them. However, considering the large number of good heroes in small and medium stars (wallstreetbets/0xRamonos /SolJakey/me/jez), playing a lineup with two one-stars doesn't seem like a very good idea (but it's a good idea if you're very confident that db will post). Therefore, I'm more inclined to alternate Makesy/db and play them in pairs exclusively for randomization and diversification of decks: I also see bsol in the first deck, I hope my quant wasn't drunk making such predictions, but according to them, bsol is the best two-star card in this tournament. If you're not comfortable playing this hero, elliotrades (+osf?) is an excellent alternative. By my estimates, the third hero by score/star is AltcoinPsycho, but using a 1-1-1-7-8 lineup seems absolutely wrong, as does playing Kaleo/Evan_ss6/muzz as the third hero here (this is only acceptable if you want to diversify your Makesy/db decks). In such a lineup, you become dependent not only on db's posts but also on the mood of the afk hero. Moreover, such a composition won't dominate this draw due to the apparently large number of 1-1-1-7-8 decks, because, judging by the screenshots, many are hoping for Kaleo/Evans' return. In the absence of db/Makesy/AltcoinPsycho, it seems you need to play j0hnwang in one star 😀 Next, traditionally removing heroes with the least supply: 0xRamonos can be replaced by SolJakey, and the absence of both can be played through a 7-8 star hero + icebergy. But if we don't consider the option with rare top heroes (ansem, greg, ico, gigi): If you don't have wallstreetbets, then me is a good replacement in this situation: I'll remind you, Makesy and db are good options both for playing in pairs and for replacing each other. But if you don't have Makesy/db (and wsb), then your prospects are obviously very poor: I should note that these calculations are only approximate, they're based on a model that may contain various errors, so they may not coincide with your opinion and common sense. Good luck, frens❤️
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Nett retweeted
Late night legendary banger from @omgpowar 🤩
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i look at fanscan.live every day as im sure many fantardios do. it has been a godsend with the activity section down on @fantasy_top_ . wanted to say thank you to @web3tool for building an amazing tool 🙏🔥🫡
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Replying to @fantasy_top_
@fantasy_top_ Main 42 King of Their Hill Predictions As usual, anyone who gets 8/8 in the comments can have all my $eth winnings from the tournament.
I very nearly forgot to do this so I'll have to skip the image this week! 1* jingtao 2* Mika 3* Unpics 4* Moca 5* Lukas 6* Clemente 7* DB 8* Greg As usual if anyone gets 8/8 in the comments they win my Eth winnings from Main 41
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My full @fantasy_top_ thoughts, going into Main 42, where I take my biggest (calculated) risk yet!😬 Last week’s calculated risk worked out really well for me. My gain in ELO points put me right back in 1st place (Legend III) with 1840 points, just shy of Legend II by 5 points. Those 5 ELO points matter A TON. Why? In Legend III, you can afford to score top 13% to gain ELO. Whereas Legend II is just top 9%. This is one of the genius plays by the team, so that us autists can calculate slingshoting/piggybacking/catapulting. Whatever you want to call it, kudos to @travisbickle0x, @0xMikado, @0xKipit & team for the tiers! 👏 That means I’d get another 13% week for Main 42. So it was time to crunch ALL the numbers in @FantasyTopHuds. It showed me the heroes' expected scores, who is on vacation/Private/Trending, and ELO point targets for each league. I instantly noticed I could likely freeroll my 5th hero slot in Bronze, meaning many 4 hero lineups I choose would have Expected Scores of ~2494. Since I’m the game’s largest holder of @notthreadguy, a current 1 star, this was my chance! Most of these decks have an EV of 2,500, without TG even posting. If TG does post, these 12 decks could end up taking half of the top 25 spots.🧮 ELO is the name of the game for me, and a freeroll of this value is INCREDIBLE.🆓 PS my entry for the @Degen__Ape__'s Bronze tournament is @icobeast, @Chilearmy123, @dcfgod, @0xMakesy, and TG. 💪 You may think my strategy of building clone decks is boring. In poker, my strategy would be called “unexploitable.”♠️ I’m fine with it, and I appreciate consistency in my fragment earnings. Check out the past 10 Mains.📈 And for the first time in at least 6 months, I have decks in every league (not reverse). Here’s the rest of my lineups, built for riding the line of top 13%. GL, y'all! 🤠
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upcoming goals for fantasysheets.xyz -hero trends view -marketplace trends/screener view -full trade history for heroes and players -player pnl -hero supply/inflation trends -tournament scouting tool -market cap page (maybe market cap history) any other suggestions? btw monad isn't a priority rn and i don't antipicate building an optimizer
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🟩 INTRODUCING fantard.io 🟪 An all encompassing @fantasy_top_ hub! Everything Fantasy you will ever need, in one single place! Tired of looking for that one tool, that one link? Bookmark this instead and never get lost anymore! - Play on @monad_xyz testnet or @Blast mainnet! - How to play - full guide - All fan-made tools for Fantasy in one place! > @0xthemolt Fantasy Sheets > @web3tool Fan Scan > @FantasyTopHuds HUDS > Many more fan made tools! - Socials > Platform X > Platform Discord > Fantardio - Founders > @0xKipit > @travisbickle0x > @0xMikado - Top community > @710_eth > @Khallid4397 > @fantasy_brah > @fantasy_hour_ And much more! Built on @devfun using @buidldao_ guides If there is ever anything missing or something you would like added to the platform, reach out to me and I will make it happen! >> fantard.io <<
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i've pinned @web3tool 's fanscan to my browser we've been flying blind while devs tune the app activity feed. fanscan fixed that and MORE - filters for txn type/stars/rarity - card prices - pack value estimates (reminder of Pack EV) - i'm hoping @web3tool can add some stats on pack EV rates and trends, search by player/address, maybe even notifications when a hero + rarity is minted
Fanscan.live has received a major update, providing more insights into new mints, their value, and card owners in @fantasy_top_ Key updates: - Card price, last trade price and current bid - Detailed card owner information - Star-based filtering - Pack value and profitability - Infinite scroll for viewing mint history Details below 👇
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every cycle has lead to different paths with different results. this cycle, the path couldnt be any clearer.
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Yaps went from a concept to TGE in less than 3 months with healthy ongoing cash flow supporting both creators and the network if this is what we built in 3 months - think about what it will do in 6, 12, 18 months and beyond at Kaito we don't wait for things to drag on - we ship, we announce, and we ship again if you think TGE is the end for a project, we will prove you wrong
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