Scientist. ♥s epidemiology, running, prob+stats, 🦀/🐫, fly fishing, greyhounds, backpacking. Author of book Bioinformatics Data Skills. All views my own.

Seattle, WA
Joined August 2009
Happy to share the alpha release of camdl, a new compartmental modeling framework I've been cooking up. With coding agents writing more of our scientific code, I think it's more important than ever to shift to architectures that engineer in robustness... vincebuffalo.com/blog/introd…
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Really enjoying this book. I don’t really play tennis (I’m eagerly learning, slowly….), but the lessons in this are far more applicable than on a court.
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Vince Buffalo retweeted
The problem with "vibe coding" is that it was meant to refer to something you whipped up at midnight after three beers and instead it means anything written mostly by an agent. But it feels wrong to say "I've spent over 500 hours vibecoding this complex piece of software"
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Vince Buffalo retweeted
Reminder that an anonymous Theranos employee discussed the whole fraud (without naming the company) on a popular subreddit years before the WSJ broke the story
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Yue ran a targeted, unblinded search of the database to find patients who might be reclassified as "in remission." Before a single patient was re-reviewed, they pre-calculated the new p-value assuming 5 of 6 avacopan patients would flip. Result: significant. They confirmed the conclusion before producing it.
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Vince Buffalo retweeted
Part of what makes SF feel unique is not just it being around so much natural beauty, but the beauty being casually everywhere It’s not only an hour or two drive away. It’s casually in the park down the next few blocks, right in the city. It’s any random Tuesday
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Maybe if we train the heck out of a model, rewarding it for verified solutions to math and computing problems, we select out all the humanities traits that would have made it a better writer.
Can someone please train a frontier language models that is actually good at LANGUAGE! Specifically writing. WTF is wrong with these shitty ass frontier models with absolutely horrible writing. They seem to be getting worse with every version.
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Congratulations to the Seattle Pilots (Brewers) for getting to the World Series!
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Many are saying! Reading Works in Progress in print is an exquisite experience. And we're aiming to get better and better. In a world threatened by slop, be a high-taste print magazine subscriber!
I’ve never really been one to read or subscribe to magazines, but Works in Progress is making a pretty compelling case. The ideas, the writing, the design. All of it is so good. worksinprogress.co/print/
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Vince Buffalo retweeted
in high dimensional space hills are rare so you end up dying on saddle points
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Vince Buffalo retweeted
Replying to @yacineMTB
don't delegate understanding xitter.cf/kepano/status/16908210…
Don't delegate understanding There is a parasite, I see it everywhere. It consumes your health and wealth. It preys on ignorance and is easy to catch. It’s so common you may not even notice you have it. The parasite has a simple and attractive proposition: let me take care of this hard thing for you. Trust me, I know better. Instead of understanding it yourself, you choose to give the parasite control over your health, education, money, housing, business, identity, data, infrastructure, climate, justice. Even your beliefs. The parasite has three stages: acceptance, extraction, intervention. First is acceptance. Everyone else seems to have the parasite already. You are expected, even encouraged, to accept the parasite into your life. You are invited to follow the norm, outsource, consume. It’s okay! Use all the services and amenities. Satisfy your desires. Eat the cheap food, watch the cheap media. Your money and time are meant to be spent. Show off what you got in exchange. Please do not try to understand how it works, it’s too complicated for you. The parasite wants you fattened. Literally and figuratively. You are paying the parasite for the privilege of being ripened. Second is extraction. Under the influence of the parasite, you have developed unhealthy habits and you are suffering the consequences. Stress, anxiety, obesity, disease, ignorance, fear, lethargy, decay. To dampen these problems you pay the parasite for help — support, medicine, loans, fines, rent, taxes. Enforcement of some homeostasis. You try to abate the issues, but you don’t have a stable foundation to build on. You have ignored the root causes. The parasite thrives. You are paying the parasite to be harvested, milked, sucked dry. Third is intervention. The side effects of the parasite’s extraction have reached a critical level. The parasite tells you it’s an emergency. You need doctors, lawyers, firefighters, a military effort. You’re in a surgery room, a court room, a psychiatric ward, a jail cell. The disease can no longer be controlled, it has festered. The flame has turned into a raging fire that needs to be put out. You are paying the parasite to go back to square one. The three stages of the parasite are interdependent. Every stage benefits someone who is not you. Everyone tells you this is just the way it is. Never mind that the parasite is living large. Why? Extraction and intervention pay well. Education and prevention do not. The incentives are aligned to make the parasite persuasive. You are alone against a coordinated system that is exceedingly effective at packaging problems you should never have with solutions you should never need. A symbiotic loop. You must recognize the parasite in its earliest form. To inoculate yourself don’t delegate understanding. If you build your own understanding you will be the one who earns the dividends.
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The future of AI will be products that get work done *and* maximize human understanding and learning (especially for the next generation of builders).
you can outsource your thinking but you cannot outsource your understanding
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Vince Buffalo retweeted
The cost is dropping faster than any transformative technology in history, 54 times faster than electricity, and it's been dropping at this same rate since GPT-3.
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Vince Buffalo retweeted
The NYT interviewed a new Chinese rogue agent swarm and the swarm responded that it’s Claude lol
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"Our initial evaluation suggested that GPT-6-Astra's score was in the late eighties followed closely by Opus 5.5. But, as we started to investigate the mistakes that the models might have made, the models, especially Astra, insisted that they were right and that it was the expert-supplied answers that were erroneous. When we went back to the experts it turned out, in multiple instances, that that the experts found some subtle errors buried deep inside their calculations. As they revised their answers, Astra's score started to inch up and it finally ended up with 98% (49/50)."
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The ideal outcome for science isn't a couple of labs using proprietary models and millions of dollars to crack trophy problems, it's to have millions of AI-aided human scientists who follow their curiosity and become way more ambitious
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Vince Buffalo retweeted
all high performance software, in the limit, starts to look like a compiler
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My time at the Gates Foundation/IDM recently wrapped up! I'm looking for senior/staff roles in AI for science, probabilistic inference, or scientific software — in Seattle or the SF Bay Area. Also open to consulting. Here's what I've been working on:
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I'm writing up a camdl preprint as an independent researcher, along with a paper on ill-posed inverse problems in infectious-disease modeling and some blog posts. I'm also available for infectious-disease modeling consulting and camdl support. Please share — DMs and inbox open.
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For my CV, publications, and more about my research and software, see vincebuffalo.com.
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